Alert archive / Arkansas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2014

Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Little Rock, AR

July 10, 20146 counties in Arkansas

NWS Little Rock, AR issued this flash flood warning at Jul 10, 2014, 3:40 PM CDT for 6 counties in Arkansas. It was in force for 110 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 10, 2014, 3:40 PM CDT (20:40 UTC)
Expired: Jul 10, 2014, 5:30 PM CDT
In force: 110 min
Issued by: NWS Little Rock, AR
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

Counties Garland County, AR, Grant County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Saline County, AR

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 42 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Shreveport, LA (KBAD), launched 12:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 256 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1112 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -78 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1053 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 6 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -54 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -31 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 10, 2:39 PM CDT, 1 hour 1 minute earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 10, 2:39 PM CDT, 1 hour 1 minute before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
239 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF CONVECTION TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN THE OVERALL CHANCE LOWERS AS THE UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN MORE OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE REACHING THE 90S OVER THE WEEKEND...AS WELL AS
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S.

CURRENT TSTORM COMPLEX SLOWLY MOVING ESE INTO NW AR...WITH THE MAIN
CORE ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR. HAS PULSED UP AND DOWN A BIT AND MAY
SEE A WARNING OR TWO WITH IT AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AR.
ALSO OTHER SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN AR IN
THE HEATING OF THE DAY...BUT WILL BE MORE ISOLATED. EXPECT AFTER
SUNSET FOR CONVECTION THE GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. THE
FRONT HAS BECOME MORE WASHED OUT AND NEARLY STATIONARY...WITH SOME
ANALYSIS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AR...WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE 60S
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHILE IN THE 70S SOUTH. TEMPS WERE BEING
HELD DOWN THIS AFTERNOON IN CLOUDS AND CONVECTION AREAS...WHILE IN
THE 80S ELSEWHERE. 12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A MOIST LOWER SURFACE TO
8K FEET LAYER..WITH PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.13 INCHES...WHILE
ABOVE 8K FEET QUITE DRY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION A BIT BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO STOP IT. DID UPDATE FORECAST A BIT EARLIER TO FINE
TUNE ON GOING POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL. THE UPPER
NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE THE CURRENT CONVECTION MORE ESE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

WILL START THE FORECAST WITH LIKELY POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
MCS MOVING ACROSS AR...WHILE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE REST
OF THE STATE. AFTER SUNSET...CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND
DOWN...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS COULD LINGER UNTIL IT MOVES
OUT OF AR. THEN DRY OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN THOSE AREA
THAT HAD RAIN WITH MILD LOWS IN THE 70S. ON FRIDAY...500MB HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER AR. THIS WILL BEGIN PUTTING A
CAP ON THE CONVECTION POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN WARMING AND REACHING THE 90S OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH SOME HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG
INTO ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER WEATHER.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT
MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL MONDAY...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     69  91  72  95 /  50  20  10  10
CAMDEN AR         71  95  73  97 /  30  20  10  10
HARRISON AR       69  91  70  93 /  30  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  94  72  95 /  30  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  93  73  96 /  40  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     72  94  73  96 /  30  20  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      71  93  71  94 /  30  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  68  91  70  95 /  30  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        69  91  71  94 /  50  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     71  94  73  96 /  30  20  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  93  72  95 /  30  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         70  92  71  94 /  50  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      71  92  72  95 /  40  20  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...51

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 10, 5:00 AM CDT, 10 hours 40 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-111000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NEAR THE LOUISIANA BORDER...WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THE
CHANCES OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW.

MEANWHILE...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WORKING SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. SOME OF
THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS
ARKANSAS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ALONG
THE RETREATING FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BE SPOTTY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES IN ALL BUT THE OZARK
MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTHWEST.

IT APPEARS THE HEAT WILL BE TEMPORARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THAT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO DROP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NATURAL STATE. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

44

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 10, 12:23 PM CDT, 3 hours 17 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1223 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

ARZ012-021-022-030-037-038-101805-
JOHNSON AR-LOGAN AR-NEWTON AR-POPE AR-SCOTT AR-YELL AR-
1223 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN YELL...NORTHEASTERN
SCOTT...NORTHWESTERN POPE...NEWTON...LOGAN AND JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL
100 PM CDT...

AT 1217 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED AN
AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SEBASTIAN AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND THIS AREA WILL MOVE INTO
LOGAN...JOHNSON AND NEWTON COUNTIES. THE AREA WAS MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

SMALL HAIL AROUND PEA SIZE AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING. PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ON ROADWAYS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PARIS...              LOST VALLEY SP...     JASPER...
  CLARKSVILLE...        BOONEVILLE...         WOODLAND...
  WALNUT...             UPPER BUFFALO WILDERNESS AREA...
  TOKALON...            SUBIACO...
  STONEHOUSE REC AREA...                      SPADRA...
  SCRANTON...           ROSETTA...            RATCLIFF...
  PRUITT...             PINEY BAY REC AREA... PIERCETOWN...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 44 AND 78.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

HEAVY RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3494 9424 3515 9410 3515 9404 3523 9404
      3524 9393 3533 9391 3532 9381 3542 9382
      3538 9371 3574 9370 3578 9368 3577 9352
      3588 9353 3600 9345 3611 9346 3609 9304
      3508 9324
TIME...MOT...LOC 1720Z 270DEG 23KT 3529 9384

/59

Special weather statement, Jul 10, 12:56 PM CDT, 2 hours 44 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1256 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

ARZ012-021-022-030-037-038-101840-
JOHNSON AR-LOGAN AR-NEWTON AR-POPE AR-SCOTT AR-YELL AR-
1256 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN YELL...NORTHEASTERN
SCOTT...WESTERN POPE...SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON...LOGAN AND JOHNSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

AT 1250 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DENNING...OR 8 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF OZARK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

SMALL HAIL FROM PEA UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING
AREAS AND ON ROADWAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PARIS...              DANVILLE...           CLARKSVILLE...
  BOONEVILLE...         WOODLAND...           WALNUT...
  TOKALON...            SUBIACO...
  STONEHOUSE REC AREA...                      SPADRA...
  SCRANTON...           ROSETTA...            RATCLIFF...
  PINEY BAY REC AREA... PETIT JEAN RIVER WMA...
  MT NEBO SP...         MT MAGAZINE...        MOSLEY...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 44 AND 76.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

VERY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES
AND UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A
FLOODED ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3524 9396 3524 9393 3532 9392 3532 9381
      3542 9381 3537 9375 3538 9371 3567 9371
      3576 9368 3577 9353 3580 9352 3588 9319
      3507 9324 3489 9415
TIME...MOT...LOC 1755Z 277DEG 22KT 3539 9374

/59

Special weather statement, Jul 10, 1:41 PM CDT, 1 hour 59 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
141 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

ARZ021>023-030-031-038-039-101925-
CONWAY AR-JOHNSON AR-LOGAN AR-PERRY AR-POPE AR-VAN BUREN AR-YELL AR-
141 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YELL...WESTERN VAN BUREN...
POPE...NORTHERN PERRY...NORTHEASTERN LOGAN...SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON AND
WESTERN CONWAY COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 137 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF MOSLEY...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF
DANVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

SMALL HAIL FROM PEA UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RUSSELLVILLE...       PERRYVILLE...         MORRILTON...
  DANVILLE...           TARAL...              ST. VINCENT...
  SOLO...               SOLGOHACHIA...        SEQUOYA PARK...
  POTTSVILLE...         PLAINVIEW...          PINEY BAY REC AREA...
  PETIT JEAN STATE PARK...
  PETIT JEAN RIVER WMA...                     PETIT JEAN MTN...
  PERRY...              OPPELO...             OLA...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 62 AND 114.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

HEAVY RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3568 9272 3503 9259 3485 9365 3550 9340
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 267DEG 36KT 3518 9329

/59

Special weather statement, Jul 10, 2:14 PM CDT, 1 hour 26 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jul 10, 2:46 PM CDT, 54 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Little Rock, AR issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 10, 12:23 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Johnson, Logan, Newton	42 min
Jul 10, 12:56 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Johnson, Logan	44 min
Jul 10, 1:41 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Conway, Pope, Yell	44 min
Jul 10, 1:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Conway, Pope	32 min
Jul 10, 2:14 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Garland, Perry	46 min
Jul 10, 2:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Conway, Faulkner, Perry, Pope	28 min
Jul 10, 2:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Faulkner, Perry, Pulaski, Saline	52 min
Jul 10, 2:46 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Faulkner	29 min
Jul 10, 3:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Conway, Faulkner, Perry, Pulaski	24 min
Jul 10, 3:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Faulkner, Grant, Jefferson, Lonoke, Pulaski, Saline	50 min
Jul 10, 4:34 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Desha	46 min
Jul 10, 4:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Cleveland, Grant, Jefferson, Lincoln	24 min
Jul 10, 4:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Bradley, Cleveland, Desha, Drew, Jefferson, Lincoln	38 min
Jul 10, 5:49 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Ouachita	31 min
Jul 10, 5:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Ouachita	21 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arkansas, 2014 Every flash flood warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.