Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
306 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING...STALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND BRINGS AN
ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 18Z...WEAK COLD FRONT IS DRAPED EAST TO TO WEST ACROSS THE CWA
WITH MAIN UNSTABLE LAYER SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE CWA. HENCE THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR JUST SOUTH OF OUR BORDER. UP TO
1500 J/KG MLCAPE IS OVER AREA WHERE STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRIOR MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ONLY BROKE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BE.
PRESSURE RISES AND DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW WILL MAKE FOR GENERAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE MID 80S) FRIDAY ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT. SHORTWAVE RIDES THE BOUNDARY...BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND RIDGES SOUTHWEST
INTO THE AREA...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...AFTERNOON ISOLATION...AND WEAK UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION WILL SUPPORT WEAK CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIRMASS TO BUILD INTO CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT CAPPING ANY PCPN DEVELOPMENT MONDAY MORNING. HIGH WILL WEAKEN
ALLOWING A RETURN OF MOISTURE ON SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING TROF. WEAK PVA WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF PCPN MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SWEEP THROUGH CWA
WEDNESDAY  SUPPORTING THE ENHANCED DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT.
GENERAL SHOWERS BEHIND...PRECIP TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING. LIGHT NORTH
WIND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING ONSHORE SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY BE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE DC METROS SATURDAY. ONSHORE FLOW
THEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE STABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NLY FLOW 10-15 KT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH. NLY
FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY...WITH ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
NO SCA EXPECTED AS OF NOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE MORNING LOW WAS 75F AT DCA WHICH TIES THE RECORD...BUT IT
WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW THIS BEFORE LOCAL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SAME
THING WITH DULLES WITH THE 72F THIS MORNING LIKELY TO BE SUBCEDED
THIS EVENING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BAJ
MARINE...BAJ
CLIMATE...BAJ

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1237 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1249 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW UPPER MARLBORO     38.79N  76.78W
06/19/2014                   PRINCE GEORGES     MD   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREE DOWN US 301 SOUTH AT OLD CRAIN HWY

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1400505

SMZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1246 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1256 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W TRACYS LANDING      38.79N  76.67W
06/19/2014                   ANNE ARUNDEL       MD   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREE DOWN NEAR MD 4 AND TALBOT RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1400506

SMZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1256 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1218 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE ELLICOTT CITY      39.28N  76.82W
06/19/2014                   HOWARD             MD   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREE BLOCKING RIGHT LANE SOUTHBOUND US RT 29 AT US 40

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1400507

SMZ

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