Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
200 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW TO USHER IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY AND IT WILL STALL OUT
NEARBY FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH HAS CAUSED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN. MAX
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY HAS LED TO AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD DURING THIS TIME.
THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL HELP ERODE ANY CAPPING
INVERSION IN PLACE...CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DESPITE WEAK SHEAR
PROFILES...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WHICH WILL
ASSIST IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. DO FEEL THAT ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR
PROFILES. WILL MENTION THE LOCALIZED THREAT IN THE HWO FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO CLEARING
AND DRY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED DUE TO
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S
IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S IN DOWNTOWN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS...THE HOTTEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COVERAGE
TUESDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO A CAPPING INVERSION AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF LIFTING MECHANISMS. THERE WILL BE A SURFACE
TROUGH...BUT FORCING ALONG IT WILL BE WEAK. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. MAX TEMPS WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN
TODAY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST
AREAS...BUT EVEN WARMER IN THE CITIES OF WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE
WITH MIN TEMPS HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN IN BETWEEN A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO NEW
ENGLAND...ALLOWING FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO STRENGTHEN BETWEEN
THE BOUNDARY AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA
IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN EVEN HOTTER
CONDITIONS...MOST LIKELY THE HOTTEST OF THE STRETCH. MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MAX TEMPS BREAK
100 IN A FEW SPOTS. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAT AND THE HUMIDITY
WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO REACH OVER 100 DEGREES NEAR THE I-95
CORRIDOR. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

TWEAKED POPS DOWN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...THINKING THAT THE DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW WILL
CAUSE A CAPPING INVERSION AND ANY FORCING WILL BE WEAK.
HOWEVER...MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OUR NORTH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS COULD DROP SOUTH INTO OUR
CWA...CAUSING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THOSE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE DUE
TO HIGH AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS 500MB HEIGHTS BEGINS TO FALL A LITTLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AREAS OF WEAK VORTICITY WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. VORTICITY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL GRAZE CWA BUT
WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT PA. REGION OF STRONGER POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA FOR THURSDAY
AND STALL OUT OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CWA WILL STAY ON
THE MOIST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL
RETURN ON SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DRAMATIC DRYING SEEMS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

COMBINATION OF QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY AND PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT,
WARM MOIST AIRMASS OVER CWA, AND PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES WILL PROMOTE
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH AT NIGHT COULD BRING CONVECTION AT
NIGHT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE
RESOLVED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THESE FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT...AND
PATCHY BR MAY CAUSE MVFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE.
THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE TERMINALS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURING
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS MAY BE CLOSE TO SCA
CRITERIA THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT. ANY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE LIMITED IN
COVERAGE. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE TERMINALS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES TO INCREASE TO
AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO...SO WATER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE HIGHER OF THE TWO SO WATER
LEVELS WILL COME CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR SENSITIVE
AREAS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER AT CHARLOTTESVILLE
VIRGINIA HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BJL/CEM
MARINE...BJL/CEM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL
EQUIPMENT...BJL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
508 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
170915-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
508 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR SENSITIVE AREAS NEAR HIGH
TIDE TUESDAY MORNING ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE SHORE OF THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICES
TO REACH OVER 100 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-170915-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
508 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
152 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NNE BRAKE             38.96N  78.98W
06/08/2014                   HARDY              WV   NWS STORM SURVEY

            NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED AND UPROOTED. NWS STORM SURVEY
            DETERMINED THE DAMAGE WAS CAUSED BY A WET MICROBURST
            WITH ESTIMATED WINDS BETWEEN 80 AND 90 MPH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1400455

KCS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
607 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     HAIL             1 SW HAGERSTOWN         39.63N  77.73W
06/16/2014  E0.75 INCH       WASHINGTON         MD   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY LOCAL BROADCAST MEDIA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1400456

GMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
615 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     HAIL             3 SSW CAVETOWN          39.60N  77.61W
06/16/2014  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1400457

CB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
617 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 PM     HAIL             1 SSW BRIDGEPORT        39.62N  77.68W
06/16/2014  E0.75 INCH       WASHINGTON         MD   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT MERITUS HOSPITAL

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1400458

CB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
637 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     HAIL             2 ENE MYERSVILLE        39.51N  77.54W
06/16/2014  E0.75 INCH       FREDERICK          MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1400459

CB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
641 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     HAIL             MYERSVILLE              39.50N  77.57W
06/16/2014  E0.75 INCH       FREDERICK          MD   PUBLIC

            AT BUSINESS ON MAIN ST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1400460

GMS