Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1125 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HAVE UPDATED POPS/WX BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. UPSTREAM
CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AS EXPECTED...BUT
IT NOW APPEARS AS IF CONVECTION CAN EXTEND FURTHER EAST INTO THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE VA FOOTHILLS AS WELL.
SEVERE WX IS NOT EXPECTED AS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
MAY RESULT.

PREV...

MUCH OF THE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE CWA...THE MOST
CONCENTRATED/HEAVIEST HAVING OCCURRED IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND. WITH
NO CONVECTION LEFT ON THE RADAR WITHIN THE CWA...AND NAM/WRF-ARW
SUGGESTING LITTLE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
HAVE CANCELLED THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

HAVE BEEN WATCHING A QLCS WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN OH
AND WESTERN/CENTRAL WV. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THIS CLIPS THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY RESULT. OTHERWISE...REST OF THE
CWA SHOULD BE SPARED FROM CONVECTION AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE CWA IS BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AND IN THE ABSENCE OF A LARGER
SCALE LIFTING MECHANISM.

OF NOTE IS THE FACT THAT SOME CLEARING IS ALREADY TAKING
PLACE...AND THIS INCREASES THE CONCERN FOR FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT. IF CLOUDS FROM THE WEAKENING QLCS TO THE WEST DON/T
MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...THEN THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG
ESPECIALLY THOSE LOCATIONS THAT PICKED UP RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE DAY WL BEGIN UNDER THE SAME WARM-MOIST AIR MASS THAT HAS BEEN
XPRNCD FOR THE PAST 2 DAYS...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE WL BE SOME
DIFFERENCES LATER IN THE DAY AS AN UPR LVL TROF APRCHS FM THE W
PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR FORCING WHICH COULD THEN BECOME A ROUND OF
TSTMS...PTNLY SVR...DURG THE LATE AFTN AND EVE HRS. GFS BUFKIT
X-SXNS SHOW CAPE OF OVR 2000 J/KG DURG THIS TIME E OF THE
HIGHLANDS... AND SPC HAS PLACED ALMOST ALL OF THE CWA IN A SLT
RISK. DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL/MORE HVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALL PRIMARY
RISKS.

HIGH TEMPS XPCTD TO REACH THE M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEK.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING CHANCES AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND
MOVES AWAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG STORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON THE IMPACT OF CLOUD COVER FROM THE DAY BEFORE ON
INSTABILITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ONCE AGAIN INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RISK OF TSRA HAS ENDED ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
GIVEN CLEARING WHICH IS TAKING PLACE...AM BECOMING INCREASINGLY
CONCERNED FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. IF MID CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER WV
DON/T MOVE IN...VIS MAY BE LOWER IN FOG THAN WHAT CURRENTLY
APPEARS IN TAFS. SHRA/TSRA APPEAR LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS MOST LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS BY THE
WEEKEND. WINDS S 10-15 KTS BECOMING NW FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE WATERS AND A WEAK
GRADIENT...GENERALLY LIGHT E/NE WINDS BEING OBSERVED THIS EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD TURN TO THE SE BY WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
BY AFTERNOON. ANY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

SCA GUSTS PSBL PORTIONS OF THE WATER AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THURS
PM. LIGHT WINDS IN HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND FRONT LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

BPP/WOODY!/DFH

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