Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
258 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE FRONT
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

AS WAS WRITTEN IN MRNG DCSNS...EYES HV BEEN FIXED ON THE
RDR/STLT/SHORT RANGE MDLS CONCERNING PSBLTY OF SVR WX. WE ARE NOW
STARTING TO SEE CELLS POP IN VCNTY OF I-81...WHICH IS MORE OR LESS
THE AREA WE THOUGHT WOULD BE WHERE TSTMS WOULD BE MOST LKLY TO
FORM GIVEN THE XTNSV CLD CVR THE FA HAS BEEN XPRNCG FURTHER N -
TEMPS STILL IN THE 60S ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LN BUT IN THE 80S
IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY. WE DO HV AN 18Z BALLOON IN THE AIR ATTM.
THIS WL GIVE THE EVE SHIFT A BETTER IDEA OF THE AMT OF CAPE/SHEAR/
INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE HAS TO WORK W/. FOR TIME BEING WL CONT
THE MENTION OF LATE AFTN STORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS.

INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WANING AFTR MID EVE...LVG ABUNDANT CLD CVR
ACROSS THE AREA. HOW MUCH FOG DVLPS WL BE A FUNCTION OF WHETHER
MUCH RAIN FALLS...BUT LATTER MAY IS NOT TRADITIONALLY A BIG FOG
TIME OF YR.

LOWS IN THE L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...

DURG THE DAY THU THERE WL PRBLY STILL BE A FAIR AMT OF CLDS AHD OF
THE WK CD FNT...BUT CLRG SHOULD BEGIN TO OCCUR LATE AS TROF MOVES
OFF THE CST...FLOW TURNS NW DCSRG POP CHCS. TEMPS IN THE M80S OVR
MUCH OF THE AREA...PSBLY U80S IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

UPR LVL TROUGHING WILL DIG ACROSS THE ERN US THROUGH THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY. BIMODAL SFC LOW WILL
STRETCH FROM SRN QUEBEC TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA PARTLY SUNNY
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GENERALLY ALONG THE
MASON DIXON LINE AND CHESAPEAKE BAY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT
AS THAT AREA WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE UPR LVL VORT MAX. GIVEN THAT
MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE LOCATED BELOW THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND...LITTLE SFC HEATING IS EXPECTED DUE TO
CLOUD COVER...CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED.

SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SAT AND MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY FOR SUNRISE SAT. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG
THE BAY...WHERE LOW END RAIN CHANCES WERE KEPT THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. ANY LINGERING PRECIP THAT DOES FORM SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA
BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S FRI
AND SAT WITH LOWS AROUND 50 BOTH NIGHTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BECOME QUIET WEATHER-WISE WITH
WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. RISING HEIGHTS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BRING A GOOD WARMING TREND AS FAIRLY BROAD UPPER RIDGE
PUSHES EAST AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC LOW. HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE SUNDAY /AND SLOW TO MOVE OUT/ WILL LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN
INTO MONDAY. STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
BRING THE CHANCE OF STORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST TUESDAY ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF A BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD LATE THIS AFTN/THIS EVE OUTSIDE OF PSBL TSTMS.
STRONG GUSTY WIND PRIMARY TSTM THREAT.

SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

LGT WINDS ON WATERS THIS AFTN/TNGT. TSTMS PSBL LATE THIS AFTN/EVE.
SCA IN EFFECT TMRW AFTN AFTR A TROF PASSAGE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE APPROACHED DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AND THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

PRODUCTS...WOODY!/CEB/AEB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
436 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
221000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
436 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL IN
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT REGION OF VIRGINIA AND IN SOUTHERN
MARYLAND. THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON....POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCAL DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY
EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-221000-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
436 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL IN
CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON....POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCAL DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
655 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     HAIL             1 E WICOMICO            38.41N  76.85W
05/21/2014  M0.88 INCH       CHARLES            MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1400259

JRK