Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1002 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW UNDERGOING A GRADUAL DISSIPATION UP TO OUR
NORTH...AS IT WRAPS UP AND PIVOTS OVER N CNTRL PA. THE TROUGH AXIS
DANGLING OUT OF THE SRN PERIPHERY HAS BEEN KICKING-OFF A LINE OF
MAINLY DISCRETE CONVECTION OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA FOR THE
PAST FEW HRS. THIS SLOWLY MOVING TROUGH AXIS HAS BEEN TRUDGING
ACROSS THE AREA AND IS APPROACHING THE BALT/DC METRO AREAS. STORM
INTENSITY IS ON THE DOWN-TURN W/ THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT
THE HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT HAS BEEN MAKING UP FOR SOME OF
THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW LEVELS
APPEAR ON THE 00Z KIAD SOUNDING...A FUNCTION OF THE COOLER NEARBY
UPPER TROUGH. THIS ASPECT OF OUR CURRENT AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
THE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ALONG THE INCOMING TROUGH AXIS UNTIL
THE BOUNDARY REACHES THE COAST...UNLESS THE INVERSION CAN SET-UP
OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

FROM PREV DISC...
THE 500MB LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL CAUSE SOME
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS.

HEIGHTS WILL RISE MONDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE...BUT
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD. MORE SUNSHINE AND HIGHER
HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY HOTTER CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...MAINLY EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
MARYLAND. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY AND MOST AREAS
WILL ALSO TURN OUT DRY FOR THE ENTIRE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BUILD OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE BERTH PASSES BY TO OUR EAST. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ALSO REMAIN OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. SEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL NOSE ITS WAY IN ON WED NIGHT
AND SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUN.  POTL FOR TERRAIN BASED
SHRA/TSTMS WILL BEGIN ON THU AFT WITH WEAK WIND PROFILE. GULF
MOISTURE WILL RIDE UP INTO SE U.S. DURING THIS TIME...AND EXPECT THE
BOUNDARY BETWEEN THIS WARM MOIST AIR AND THE QUEBEC HIGH WILL BE
SOUTH OF CWA PER THE 00Z ECMWF.

12Z MEX FOR DCA HAS TEMPS IN THIS PERIOD SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR NIGHT TIME LOWS. SEVERE
WX CHANCES APPEAR BELOW NORMAL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF CONVECTION SLOWLY/SURELY MAKING IT TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR
OF NRN VA/NE MD. THE DC AND BALT AREAS NOW BEING AFFECTED - LIKELY
ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT EVEN W/ THE SLOW MOVEMENT. THE SHEN VLY IN
THE CLEAR NOW...AS WILL BE KIAD BY 03Z.

AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS. ANY FOG
WILL BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING MONDAY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THE REST OF MONDAY ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
COUPLE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DAYS 4-7.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING
THIS TIME. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

BEST CHANCE FOR SCA WINDS OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE POST FRONTAL
ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VERY WEAK WIND FIELD AOB H85 THROUGH DAY
7.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES TO RISE TO BETWEEN 0.75
AND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THE POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT. DUE FEEL THAT THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE FOR ANNAPOLIS IN ANNE ARUNDEL
COUNTY. HIGH TIDE IS AT 11:58 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...BJL/LEE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
945 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 PM     HAIL             1 E MCDONOGH            39.39N  76.75W
08/03/2014  M1.00 INCH       BALTIMORE          MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL ALONG MT. WILSON LANE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1400911

KLW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1006 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     HAIL             OWINGS MILLS            39.41N  76.79W
08/03/2014  E0.88 INCH       BALTIMORE          MD   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL ON I-795 NEAR OWINGS MILLS... MD

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1400912

KLW