Gale Warning 26, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
241 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA
TODAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. HURRICANE ARTHUR...90 MILES
EAST OF CHARLESTON SC...WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DELMARVA FRIDAY AND
THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. FOR FURTHER INFO...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
GUIDANCE AND INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
DETAILS ON THE PATH OF ARTHUR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

WE DON'T SEE WX PATTERNS LK THIS EVERY DAY - THANKFULLY. LONG LN
OF CVNCTN NOW STRETCHING ALONG THE APLCHNS W/ THE FNTL BNDRY FM NRN
SC INTO CENTRAL NY. HRCN ARTHUR TRACKING SLTLY TO THE NNE...NOW 90
MILES E OF CHS. THESE LOOK TO BE COMBINING INTO A LONG CNVRGNT
BNDRY WHICH WL HV THE PTNL TO PRODUCE SVR TSTMS AND FLASH FLDG
WELL INTO THE EVE. CLD CVR INCSRG WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPS
FM CLIMBING MUCH ABV THE A90 READING BEING SEEN AT MULTIPLE SITES
ATTM...BUT THE EVE SHOULD ALSO BE SULTRY IN WARMTH AND HUMIDITY.

ARTHUR IS PROGGED TO BE TRACKING NE ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OVRNGT
B4 MAKING A RIGHT TURN OUT INTO THE ATLC. ONCE THIS TURN OCCURS
THE FNTL BNDRY SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT THRU THE FCST
AREA...ALLOWING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN OVRNGT AND CREATE
A NICE DAY FOR THE 4TH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

AFTR THESE SYSTEMS EXIT EYES WL BE ON THE OUTDOOR CELEBRATIONS FOR
THE 4TH. IN MANY YRS WE HV CONCERNS ABT HIGH HEAT INDICES/HEAT
ADVSRIES FOR THE HOLIDAY...BUT THIS WL NOT BE THE CASE TMRW. HIGHS IN THE
L80S...DWPTS IN THE 50S. IT WL BE BRZY DURG THE DAY - GUSTS BTWN
20-25 MPH. IF THESE LASTED INTO THE 9 PM HR THIS WOULD BE A BIG
PROBLEM FOR FIREWORKS...BUT AS OF NOW THINK WINDS WL BE DYING DOWN
IN THE 7-9 PM TIMEFRAME...AND THINGS SHOULD BE OK AFTR SUNDOWN.

AFTR THAT THE WKND IS LOOKING QUITE NICE...ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY
JUL. HIGH PRES OVR THE RGN...HIGHS IN THE 80S W/ RLTVLY LOW
HUMIDITY. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WEAK PREFRONTAL SHORT WAVES CROSSING CWA ON ZONTAL FLOW INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CWA LATER WEDNESDAY AS VORT
MAX FROM CENTRAL CANADA DRIVING EAST ACROSS GREAT LAKES.

MONDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AIR...AND INCREASING HUMIDITY TO
RETURN THROUGH MID WEEK. THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE LEE TROUGH ON
TUE AND WED COULD ALLOW FOR DIURNAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTM
ACTIVITY BOTH DAYS. BY WED A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST WILL CROSS THE CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THAT CAN REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS TO
IFR LEVELS AT TIMES.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20
TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK FROM SAT THROUGH MON...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BOTH
SAT AND SUN.

&&

.MARINE...

SVR TSTM WTCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
PTMC...CHES BAY N OF NORTH BCH.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THRU MIDNIGHT. SCA
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
OVRNGT FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
RIVER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN
GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THAT COULD LEAD TO
REDUCED VSBYS.

ARTHUR WILL RMN WELL TO THE E DURING FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SCA IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS. A GALE WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. SCA WL
LKLY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS OVERNIGHT.

NO PROBS FORESEEN ON THE WATERS THIS WKND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

WE ARE NOT XPCTG PROBS REGARDING CSTL FLDG. WATER LVLS ARE PRSNTLY
SLTLY ELEVATED...BUT THE PD OF TIME WHERE WINDS COULD KEEP WATERS
BLOCKED IN TO THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY SHOULD BE SHORT...AND AFTR
ARTHUR PULLS AWAY/BNDRY MOVES THRU WINDS WL TURN TO THE NW PUSHING
WATER OUT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DCZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ013-014-016>018.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ004>007-009>011.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ057.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ036>040-042-
     050>056-501-502.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025>031.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ052-053.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

PRODUCTS...WOODY!/CB/CEM

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