Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1126 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN HEIGHT AND EXPECT THEM TO GO MVFR
TO IFR IN THE NEXT 3 HOURS. NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE ONSET OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WHICH SHOULD TAKE PLACE ABOUT THE SAME TIME.
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL TAKE PLACE FROM 08-16Z AT KLBB AND FROM
10Z-21Z AT KCDS. KLBB SHOULD MOSTLY BE SNOW BUT KCDS COULD SEE A
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES AT KLBB AND 2-4 AT KCDS
WILL IMPACT GROUND OPERATIONS BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
NOT CAUSE TOO MANY PROBLEMS WITH DRIFTS.  AFTER PRECIPITATION
ENDS...CEILINGS MAY RETURN TO MVFR TO VFR RANGE BUT UNCERTAINTY IS
HIGH RIGHT NOW IF THIS WILL CLEAR OUT OR NOT.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014/

UPDATE...
00Z DATA CONTINUES TO ROLL IN AND IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW CHANCES WILL
BE HIGHER FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT EARLIER FORECASTS HAD. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS THE TROF A BIT STRONGER THAN WHAT MODELS HAVE AND
THE NLDN NETWORK DETECTED A FEW CG STRIKES OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...
A GOOD INDICATOR THAT THE TROF DYNAMICS ARE A BIT STRONGER THAN
THE MODELS HAVE. SHORT RANGE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW AN INITIAL BAND OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND BAND SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. ALTHOUGH
MODEL FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...MODEL
AVERAGES FOR LUBBOCK ARE RIGHT AROUND 2 INCHES WITH CLOSER TO 3
INCHES NOW AT CHILDRESS. THERE MAY BE A FEW POCKETS WHERE THE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE OVER THREE INCHES...ESPECIALLY IF ANY MESOSCALE
BANDING SETS UP OVER ONE PARTICULAR AREA FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME.

PRECIPITATION TYPE STILL LOOKS LIKE ALL SNOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS WITH AN INITIAL MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS INCLUDING LUBBOCK. HOWEVER...RAPID COOLING
AND MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION THIS OVER
TO SNOW FOR ALL OF THE CAPROCK. FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS HOWEVER...
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KFT WHICH CONTINUES TO FAVOR A WINTRY MIX THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO PRIMARILY A
SNOW SLEET MIX. ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BUT THERE
COULD BE THIN LAYER OF ICE ON SURFACES BEFORE SNOW STARTS TO FALL
ON TOP OF OR MIX IN WITH THE ICE.

ALTHOUGH THE BANDING ALSO MEANS THAT THERE ARE PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THAT MAY NOT RECEIVE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL...THE CERTAINTY
THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA WILL MEET OUR ADVISORY CRITERIA
WILL LEAD US TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. INITIAL SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND THEN EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL IN THE
6-8AM TIMEFRAME WHILE ALSO SHIFTING EAST. RAN THE ADVISORY THROUGH
5 PM FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AS WELL BUT FULLY EXPECT PORTIONS OF THE
ADVISORY TO BE CANCELED FROM WEST TO EAST EARLIER THAN THIS.
COULD HAVE TRIED TO GET FANCY WITH THE GRIDS AND REFLECT THIS BUT
IT WOULD RESULT IN MAJOR HEADACHES IN THE PRODUCTS.

GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND PUBLISHED AND TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE
ISSUED SHORTLY.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014/

AVIATION...
DIFFICULT FORECAST IN STORE FOR THE TERMINAL SITES TONIGHT. FROZEN
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT BOTH AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL
TIME WITH CEILINGS DROPPING INTO THE IFR TO MVFR RANGE. THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES WITH ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TIMING
HOWEVER ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW AT
BOTH KCDS AND KLBB. PERIODS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF BETWEEN
18 AND 21Z. ACCUMULATIONS AT KLBB MAY MAKE IT UP TO ONE INCH WITH
ONE TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE AT KCDS. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE AFTER
THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE/LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BACK INTO VFR
RANGE AT BOTH SITES.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST...GIVING RISE TO WINTRY
PRECIP LATE THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW. THIS EVENT WILL NOT ONLY BE
OUR FIRST PRECIP EVENT OF THE YEAR...BUT WILL ALSO BE OUR FIRST SHOT
AT MEASURABLE PRECIP IN OVER 40 DAYS.

BROAD TROUGHINESS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE WRN CONUS HAS SLOWLY
COMMENCED TO SHIFT EWRD AND THUS...CAUSED SWRLY FLOW ALOFT TO
SHARPEN OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO. THIS FLOW ALOFT HAS ALLOWED A
PERSISTENT PLUME OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...KEEPING MOST OF THE
CWA UNDERNEATH SCT-BKN SKIES. LOOKING CLOSER AT THE SFC...A
LINGERING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS NEARING THE SWRN ZONES
EARLIER THIS MORNING DID BRIEFLY PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA EARLIER
THIS AFTN.../COURTESY OF 1030 MB SFC RIDGE SLIDING SWRD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/ BUT HAS MANAGED TO RETREAT BACK TO DENVER CITY TX
/SW WIND WITH A TEMP OF 64 F/. MOST OF THE REGION WAS ENCOMPASSED BY
LIGHT E-NE WINDS AND TEMPS ONLY IN THE 40S. THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ITS SWRD TREK
TOWARDS THE CNTRL PLAINS...THUS PRODUCING PRESSURE SLIGHT
PRESSURE RISES OF 5-7 MB PER 3 HRS...WHICH LEADS TO A SECONDARY
SURGE OF COLDER AIR WITH N-NE WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH CWA-WIDE.
CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND SO WILL TEMPS WITH TEENS AND 20S EXPECTED.

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...AND THAT IS AN APPROACHING /OPEN/ UA TROUGH WHICH WILL NEAR
THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING...GIVING US OUR SHOT AT WINTRY PRECIP
/THE SYSTEM WAS TRANSLATING ACROSS SRN CA/SRN NV/WRN AZ/ LATE THIS
AFTN/. AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL CAUSE PWATS TO INCREASE INTO THE
RANGE OF 0.50-0.60 INCHES...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. HOWEVER WE WILL NOT BE TAPPING INTO RICH
GULF MOISTURE...AS IT GETS CUT OFF BY THE SWRD MOVING COLD FRONT.
RATHER ADEQUATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST AND IN COMBINATION WITH SUFFICIENT FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING...WINTRY PRECIP WILL COMMENCE LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE IN THE FORM OF A SNOW BAND. THOUGH MOST
SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT THE BULK OF THE SNOW BAND WILL MOSTLY AFFECT
THE TX PANHANDLE...THERE ARE A FEW OTHERS THAT SHOW A QUICK 1.00
INCH OF SNOWFALL TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF PARMER AND CASTRO
COUNTIES /AS THE BAND BRUSHES ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES/...WHICH IS
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS SNOW BAND IS ANTICIPATED TO WANE THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT...HOWEVER ANOTHER BAND IS EXHIBITED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS AOA MIDNIGHT.
FORECAST SOLUTIONS DO NOT AGREE WRT THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS
BAND...AS SEVERAL MODELS DISPLACE IT JUST SE OF KLBB...HENCE
AFFECTING LOCALES ON THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK TO ACROSS THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE ERN SOUTH PLAINS...VERSUS
RIGHT ACROSS KLBB AND POINTS SE AND NE AS DISPLAYED BY A FEW OTHER
SOLUTIONS. THIS COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE OF KLBB RECEIVING AOA 1.00
INCH...TO 2.00-4.00 INCHES...WHICH IS A LARGE DISCREPANCY. WILL
TENTATIVELY LEAN TOWARDS THE MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH SHOWS
A SNOW BAND PLACEMENT SE OF KLBB ATTM. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
ANALYZE WEATHER TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS TREND INDEED HOLDS TRUE...OR
REQUIRES AN ADJUSTMENT. BY TOMORROW AFTN...UL SUPPORT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO SURPASS THE FREEZING MARK.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE 2.00-4.00 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3.00-5.00 INCHES ACROSS THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CNTRL AND ERN SOUTH
PLAINS...AOA 1.00 INCH ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS...CNTRL AND
SWRN SOUTH PLAINS...AND 0.5-1.00 INCH ACROSS THE NWRN SOUTH PLAINS
/KEEPING IN MIND 1.00 OR SLIGHTLY GREATER COULD DEVELOP ACROSS A
COUPLE OF NWRN ZONE COUNTIES/. FURTHERMORE...THE HEAVIEST PART OF
THE SNOW BAND ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS COULD
ENCOMPASS FREEZING RAIN EARLY ON BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SLEET.

LONG TERM...
THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
THE NEXT WAVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY RIGHT ON THE
HEELS OF SUNDAYS WAVE. WITH SOME RELIEF WE HAVE NOTED THAT THE 18Z
WRF/NAM HAS SLIGHTLY SHARPENED AND SLOWED THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE
WITH A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE EXPANDING OVER THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS AGREES BETTER WITH HOW WE HAD ALREADY TRENDED
THE GRIDDED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...THOUGH THIS ALSO SHOULD STILL
BE ANOTHER QUICK SHOT WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED LIFT AND MOISTURE SO
WE CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY MODEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THERMAL
PROFILES GENERALLY IN A MIXED PHASE TO START WITH SHOULD TREND
MORE TOWARDS FAVORING LIGHT SNOW LATER IN THE NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY BEFORE RAPID WEST-TO-EAST DRYING OCCURS.

THEN COMES THE NEXT POLAR PLUNGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...
WHICH THIS SOLUTION RUN IS LOOKING MORE FORMIDABLE WITH H850
TEMPERATURES CRATERING TO BELOW MINUS 10 ONCE MORE. AND THIS COLD
AIR-MASS APPEARS CAPABLE OF LASTING LATE INTO THE WEEK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WE HAVE FURTHER TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD...
THOUGH NOT YET QUITE AS COLD AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING
HIGHS HOLDING IN THE TEENS BY THURSDAY. A LIGHT OVER-RUNNING
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD DEVELOP BY THURSDAY THOUGH
UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL AWAIT ARRIVAL OF A SLOWER AND SOMEWHAT
DEEPER LOOKING UPPER TROUGH FOR LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
CURRENT OUTPUT SUGGESTS THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
PREDOMINANT SNOW AND WE HAVE EDGED MENTION HIGHER TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ALTHOUGH AWAITING BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE AND THUS LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        18  31  16  40  24 /  60  20  10  10  30
TULIA         20  30  15  36  25 /  70  20  10  10  30
PLAINVIEW     20  31  15  37  25 /  80  30  10  10  30
LEVELLAND     20  31  18  40  26 /  80  20  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       21  31  16  39  27 /  80  30  10  10  30
DENVER CITY   22  32  20  42  28 /  80  20  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    21  31  19  40  28 /  80  30  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     23  32  17  34  27 /  80  50  10  10  40
SPUR          23  31  17  37  27 /  80  60  10  10  30
ASPERMONT     24  29  17  36  29 /  80  80  10  10  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>044.

&&

14/93/14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
926 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

TXZ021>044-030330-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
926 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WINTER WEATHER

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER MOST OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE BEFORE EXPANDING OFF THE
CAPROCK DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE CAPROCK WITH WIDESPREAD 3 INCHES EXPECTED
OFF THE CAPROCK. NARROW BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES WILL RESULT
IN LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW TOTALS APPROACHING 5 INCHES. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM SUNDAY FOR THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL BEGIN DIMINISHING OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
AND ROLLING PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE FURTHER LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...A SECOND WINTER STORM MAY
THREATEN THE REGION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AHEAD OF SHARPLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR MID-WEEK. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A THIRD WINTER STORM BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.