Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
306 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR A CLOVIS TO
AMARILLO TO PERRYTON LINE WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD NEAR A CLOVIS
TO CARLSBAD LINE. THESE TWO BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCI
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE FIRST STORM OF THE DAY HAVING DEVELOPED BETWEEN
CLOVIS AND FRIONA WITH SOME AGITATED CUMULUS TO THE SOUTH OF THAT.
IN GENERAL...THERMODYNAMIC ANALYSIS SUPPORTS HIGH-RES MODELS IN IDEA
OF CONVECTION ALONG BOTH BOUNDARIES...CONCENTRATED INITIALLY IN THE
SWRN PANHANDLE. MID-LEVEL FLOW OF ABOUT 20-30 KTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO MOVE THE STORMS EWD TOWARD THE I-27 CORRIDOR...POSSIBLY A BIT
FURTHER TO THE EAST DEPENDING ON WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET CAN DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF ANY UPPER SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION
SUGGEST A MOSTLY EVENING SHOW UNLESS THERE DEVELOPS A WAY TO FORM A
SUSTAINED MESOSCALE COLD POOL...WHICH ATTM APPEARS UNLIKELY. SVR
THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 03Z IS PRESENT BUT MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SUGGEST SOME HEAVY RAINFALL QUITE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST AND MOST SUSTAINED STORMS. ORIENTATION OF POPS FROM THE
MORNING FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH A MODEST INCREASE TO 40-50 PCT FOR
THE NWRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHILE KEEPING 20-30 PCT SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY IS LOOKING TO BE QUIETER. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
SOME OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. SFC TROUGH TO STAY FURTHER TO THE
WEST WITH A FAIRLY UNIFORM SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THUS A LACK
OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MID LEVEL WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VEER TO
THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WHICH COMBINED WITH THE REST OF THE PATTERN
SUGGESTS PRECIP UNLIKELY. DESPITE INCREASING HEIGHTS TO THE WEST...
1000-500 MB THICKNESSES OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS TO SEE LITTLE CHANGE
SO TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH MOS VALUES LOOKING
FINE ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS CHANCES FOR PRECIP
THIS WEEKEND APPEARS QUESTIONABLE...BUT CONFIDENCE INCREASES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NWRLY FLOW ALOFT PROMOTES NOCTURNAL CONVECTION.

AN UA RIDGE ACROSS THE SERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID-UPPER
LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY...WHERE THEREAFTER THE MOISTURE WILL BEND EAST/EXIT
THE REGION. PROGGED PWATS DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND SUGGESTS
THE PLAUSIBILITY OF THIS OCCURRENCE. CONCURRENTLY...A WEAKNESS
UNDERNEATH THE AFOREMENTIONED UA RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NE
FROM NERN OLD MEXICO TO ACROSS THE FA. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKNESS IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...AND AN UA
RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC EXHIBITED TO STRETCH EAST ACROSS THE
WRN ZONES...MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUASH PRECIP CHANCE /OR MAKE IT RATHER
DIFFICULT FOR STORMS TO GET GOING/. NONETHELESS...CI ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO WILL STILL DEVELOP TOMORROW AND
SATURDAY EVENING/S...BUT STEERING FLOW APPEARS TO BE ANEMIC THUS
POSING LITTLE TO NO THREAT FOR THE WRN ZONES.

FLOW ALOFT WILL VEER TO THE NW EARLY NEXT WEEK...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN CONVECTION TO SLIDE SE ACROSS THE CWA EACH
NIGHT MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. A NRLY COLD FRONT IMPINGING ON THE REGION
MONDAY COULD ONLY AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE.
WITH THE UA RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS SWRN CONUS AND AMPLIFYING THROUGH
MID-LATE WEEK...FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE NRLY...POSSIBLY MAKING
IT A BIT MORE DIFFICULT TO RECEIVE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW DAYS OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  87  62  89  64 /  40  10  10  10  10
TULIA         64  89  63  88  65 /  50  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     65  89  64  87  66 /  50  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     66  88  65  87  66 /  40  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  89  66  88  68 /  40  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   66  86  65  87  66 /  40  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    67  87  65  87  66 /  40  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     69  94  67  94  70 /  30  10  10  10  10
SPUR          68  91  68  89  69 /  30  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     70  92  69  93  71 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

07/29

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1202 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

TXZ021>044-201715-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1202 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM TAHOKA TO PADUCAH.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.