Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
644 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. CONVECTION WAS ORGANIZING INTO A LINE
ACROSS EASTERN NM AND IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EAST OR
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
AFFECT KLBB AFTER 02Z...WITH A SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE OF AN
IMPACT AT KCDS AFTER 04Z. THESE STORMS WILL BRING BRIEF HEAVY
RAINS AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS...WITH A LOWER THREAT OF HAIL. DID
CARRY TEMPO GROUPS AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS FOR POSSIBLE STORM
IMPACTS THIS EVENING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN AFTER THE CONVECTION...LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY
AS BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. THERE WILL BE A MORE
CONDITIONAL THREAT OF A HIGH-BASED STORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN A TERMINAL IMPACT IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
EARLIER FORECAST FOR AN ACTIVE EVENING REMAINS ON TRACK AS SCATTERED
TSTORMS HAVE SINCE ERUPTED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE PRESENTLY ATOP THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL QUICKLY EXIT
THE AREA BY 00Z AHEAD OF A MINOR IMPULSE EVIDENT IN EARLIER WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. FINE SCALE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE PRESENT
TSTORMS WILL REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES NEAR 00Z AT WHICH POINT THEY
SHOULD BEGIN CONSOLIDATING INTO AN MCS. EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG WITH AN EMERGING 30-40 KNOT LLJ COULD
CERTAINLY PROLONG THE WINDOW FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WELL PAST
SUNSET...BUT WE WOULD EXPECT THE BRUNT OF SEVERE WX TO EXIT THE AREA
BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS THE MCS INEVITABLY TRACKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
CORRIDOR OF RICHEST THETA-E VALUES POOLING IN THE EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...OUR RATHER WEAK W-NWLY WINDS AT 500MB WILL
BACK SWLY AND AMPLIFY TO AROUND 35 KNOTS AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH GRAZES THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. UNFORTUNATELY...THE NEGATIVES
WITH TOMORROW/S SETUP FOR PRECIP INCLUDE 1) WARMING TEMPS FROM
850-700MB 2) NEARLY NIL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH NO APPARENT IMPULSES 3)
UPPER JET AXIS RESIDING WELL NORTH OF THE CWA 4) DIFFUSE CONVERGENCE
ALONG DRYLINE. IN SPITE OF THESE DRAWBACKS...STRONG HEATING AND
LOCALIZED ZONES OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE
/ESPECIALLY IN BRISCOE COUNTY WHERE WINDS TEND TO REMAIN BACKED EAST
OF THE NW-SE ESCARPMENT/ COULD YIELD A FEW STORMS BY LATE AFTN IN AN
OTHERWISE FAVORABLY SHEARED AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. RETAINED 20
PERCENT POPS IN OUR NORTHEAST FOR THIS BUT DID OPT FOR SUB-15
PERCENT ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION ELSEWHERE AS CAPPING COULD BE
BREACHED BY DEEP MIXING AND HEATING. WE DO FEEL THE NAM AND TO SOME
DEGREE THE TTU-WRF ARE OVERDONE WITH PRECIP COVERAGE BY LATE IN THE
DAY IN THIS WEAKLY FORCED SETUP...BUT WE WON/T SHUT THE DOOR ON THIS
POSSIBILITY JUST YET AND CONTINUE TO EVALUATE IN LATER FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...
BY SATURDAY EVENING...FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
TROUGHING IN THE WEST AND RIDGING OUT EAST.  HURRICANE CHRISTINA
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST.  BY MONDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL COME ASHORE
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE REMNANTS OF
CHRISTINA WILL PHASE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND BECOME INCORPORATED IN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  THE PACIFIC NW SYSTEM EVOLUTION DIVERGES SHARPLY
AFTER TUESDAY WITH THE GFS KICKING IT OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY LATE THURSDAY AND THE ECM HANGING IT BACK AROUND IDAHO BEFORE
LIFTING INTO SRN SK.  THUS...WILL TREND THE LATTER EXTENDED TOWARD
CLIMATOLOGY THOUGH FAVORING THE ECM SOLUTION.

AFTER LOW-END STORM CHANCES SATURDAY EVENING...CONFLUENT FLOW LOOKS
TO EXIST THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME
RETURNS FOR MONDAY.  THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STORM
PERHAPS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE GENERALLY
PRECLUDES EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE GRIDS ATTM.  RAIN CHANCES MAY
INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
ONCE AGAIN.  INTO TUESDAY AND PERHAPS WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORM CHANCES SEEM POSSIBLE THOUGH NARROWING THE LOCATION IS
A BIT OF A CHALLENGE GIVEN THE GENERAL HOMOGENEITY OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE DRYLINE WILL BE OF THE SLOSHING VARIETY AND MAY VERY WELL PUSH A
BIT FURTHER EAST ON THURSDAY LIMITING THE RAIN CHANCES WEST.
BUT...OTHERWISE...TYPICAL MOIST JUNE CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  93  59  86  61 /  60  10  10  10  10
TULIA         64  92  64  86  65 /  40  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     65  92  65  87  66 /  50  10  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     66  94  65  90  67 /  60  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       67  94  68  90  69 /  60  10  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   65  95  65  93  67 /  60  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    65  94  65  93  66 /  60  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     68  95  70  92  71 /  20  20  30  10  10
SPUR          68  94  68  93  70 /  30  10  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     71  96  71  97  72 /  30  10  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

23/33/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1100 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014

TXZ021>044-141100-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1100 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND MOVE EASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...MAINLY AFFECTING THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE...ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK.
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO
70 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.

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