Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
907 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

.DISCUSSION...
GROWING CHANCE FOR A LARGE MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...MCS...TO
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING. VERY
MOIST AIRMASS AND POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM SUPER-CELL STORMS IN
ADVANCE OF THE MCS WHILE A LARGER AREA MAY BE PRONE TO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL LATER IN THE NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS INCREASED
LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE BURGEONING STORMS SOUTHWEST OF LUBBOCK
AND THE GROWING COMPLEX JUST NORTH OF CLOVIS...ALL CONVERGING
TOWARDS OUR AREA. THE TORNADO WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 1 AM FOR
ALL AREAS...WHILE WE HAVE JUST ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL AREAS AS WELL. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014/

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS BOTH TAF SITES BY
MID TO LATE THIS EVENING. THERE IS GOOD POSSIBILITY AS WELL OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KLBB IN PARTICULAR BETWEEN 02Z AND 05Z
THIS EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE...TORNADO
WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z TONIGHT...WHILE KCDS RISK IS JUST A
BIT LESS. STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF A WELL DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM
SEVERE STORMS NEAR TUCUMCARI NEW MEXICO THROUGH FRIONA AND
ABERNATHY TO NEAR WHITE RIVER LAKE. BOUNDARY IS EDGING SLOWLY WEST
TOWARDS KLBB. DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE JUST HOW STORMS WILL EVOLVE.
WE FAVOR LATER IN THE EVENING BEFORE BEST CHANCE THOUGH CANT RULE
OUT ISOLATED DISCRETE STORMS PRIOR TO THAT. TERMINALS SHOULD BE ON
BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM MIDNIGHT AND LATER AND MAY BE SUBJECT TO
SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER BUT WILL ADD THIS WHEN THE
MCS GIVES STRONGER CLUES. AIRMASS LIKELY TO STABILIZE SUNDAY
MORNING AND STRATUS MOST LIKELY NEAR MVFR LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR
OR AFTER DAYBREAK. AIRMASS SHOULD BEGIN DESTABILIZE TOWARDS
ADDITIONAL THUNDER CHANCES LATE SUNDAY. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014/

SHORT TERM...
STORM CHANCES...INCLUDING SEVERE WEATHER AND THE PROSPECTS FOR HEAVY
RAIN...CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM.

THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING IN THE REGION
FOR SOME TIME NOW DID RECEIVE A NICE BUMP SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND AS OF 20Z WAS SITTING ALONG AN AMHERST TO
DICKENS LINE. HEATING HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED WITH PLENTY OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER BLANKETING MUCH OF THE FA
TODAY...BUT THE LATEST SPC MESO-ANALYSIS NOW SHOWS MLCAPES OF
2000-3000 J/KG WITH MINIMAL INHIBITION LEFT. PLUS...WE HAVE ALREADY
SEEN A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
OFF THE CAPROCK ALREADY...AND THESE ATTEMPTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO MATURE. THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50+
KNOTS WILL MEAN SUPERCELL AND MULTICELL MODES WILL OCCUR...WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND POSSIBLE. LOW LFCS AND LCLS
WILL ALSO SUPPORT A TORNADIC THREAT...WITH THE BEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
NEAR AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL
WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN NM IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO A MCS AND PLUNGE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH MORE OF A DAMAGING
WIND AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT. IT DOES APPEAR ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA IS FAVORED FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...THOUGH HIGH
PWATS WILL SUPPORT BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAIN WITH ANY STRONGER STORM
THAT DEVELOPS. THUS...IN ADDITION TO A INCLUDING A SEVERE WEATHER
MENTION IN THE GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL HAVE ALSO ADDED A HEAVY
RAIN MENTION.

TONIGHT/S CONVECTION WILL REINFORCE THE SFC BOUNDARY...LIKELY
PUSHING IT FURTHER SOUTHWARD FOR TOMORROW. ELEVATED ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A MODEST SOUTHERLY LLJ LIFTS OVER THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND THUS WE HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
WEST BY LATER IN THE DAY...RENEWING STORM CHANCES...PARTICULARLY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER MCS MAY BE POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON HOW
THINGS PLAY OUT TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW...WE COULD SEE CONVECTION
DEVELOP LOCALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH IF CLOUD COVER TEMPERS
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...WE MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL EVENING.
THUS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE PICTURE AGAIN TOMORROW...WITH HEAVY
RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TONIGHT...THANKS IN PART TO THE RICH
MOISTURE IN PLACE...BUT THIS...ALONG WITH THE LINGERING FRONT AND
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING TOO
DRAMATICALLY ON SUNDAY. WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK FORECAST HIGHS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES...WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S COMMON...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE MID TO UPPER 80S MAY BE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...
CONVECTION LIKELY ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
SUNDAY EVENING THEN SPREADING ACROSS MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE FCST
AREA OVERNIGHT. LIKELY POPS CONTINUE TO BE JUSTIFIED WITH THE ONE
CAVEAT ATTM BEING SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE POSITIONING OF COLD
FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY.

AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY
SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY MILD TEMPS AND ONLY REMOTE RAINFALL
POSSIBILITIES ONCE SUNDAY NIGHTS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CLEARS THE
FCST AREA. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BE FLATTENED BY TWO OR THREE
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE DESERT SW WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THE DRYLINE TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE FCST AREA WITH BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKING TO BE WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF SOME
UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE SRN END OF THE FIRST OF THE NRN PLAINS
TROUGHS. SIMILAR UPPER PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WHICH COULD RESULT IN DAILY PRECIP CHANCES. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
MENTION OUT PAST THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONED FOR WEDNESDAY UNTIL
SEE SOME BETTER MODEL CONTINUITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  79  57  78  55 /  70  40  50  20  10
TULIA         63  78  59  77  56 /  70  40  60  20  10
PLAINVIEW     64  79  61  78  57 /  70  40  60  20  10
LEVELLAND     66  84  63  81  59 /  60  40  60  20   0
LUBBOCK       66  84  63  81  59 /  70  40  60  20   0
DENVER CITY   68  86  64  82  61 /  40  30  60  20  10
BROWNFIELD    67  85  65  83  61 /  50  30  60  20  10
CHILDRESS     68  83  65  81  60 /  70  40  70  30  10
SPUR          69  83  65  83  62 /  70  40  60  30  10
ASPERMONT     71  88  66  85  62 /  70  40  70  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>044.

&&

05/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1136 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

TXZ021>044-081645-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1136 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INITIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY THEN SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN
ADDITION...MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 75 MILES PER
HOUR...HAIL TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN RATES.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THESE
STORMS...LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.  IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA. MUCH LIKE
TODAY...STORMS ON SUNDAY MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
736 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 PM     HAIL             MATADOR                 34.02N 100.82W
06/07/2014  M1.75 INCH       MOTLEY             TX   METEOROLOGIST

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1400160

BMH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
830 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 PM     HAIL             DENVER CITY             32.97N 102.83W
06/07/2014  M1.00 INCH       YOAKUM             TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1400161

BMH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
842 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HAIL             MATADOR                 34.02N 100.82W
06/07/2014  M1.75 INCH       MOTLEY             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF GOLF BALL AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1400162

BMH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
917 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HAIL             PLAINS                  33.19N 102.83W
06/07/2014  M2.00 INCH       YOAKUM             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1400163

JGD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
923 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0919 PM     HAIL             ROPESVILLE              33.41N 102.15W
06/07/2014  M1.75 INCH       HOCKLEY            TX   SKYWARN SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1400164

BMH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
924 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0923 PM     HAIL             SUNDOWN                 33.46N 102.49W
06/07/2014  M1.75 INCH       HOCKLEY            TX   SKYWARN SPOTTER

            QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1400165

BMH