Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
658 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014

.UPDATE...
STRONG-SEVERE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE. STORMS HAVE BEEN
ROTATING WITH HISTORY OF A FEW TORNADOES. TORNADO WATCH ISSUED
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE UNTIL 1 AM. RMCQUEEN

&&

.AVIATION...
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. IT
STILL REMAINS UNCLEAR ON WHETHER THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
AFFECT KCDS. IF STORMS TO ROLL INTO THE KCDS TERMINAL...THE EXPECTED
TIME WOULD BE BETWEEN 04-09Z. THERE EXISTS A SMALLER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE KLBB TERMINAL AROUND THE SAME TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014/

SHORT TERM...
BIGGEST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS REVOLVE AROUND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...SOME WHICH COULD BE SEVERE LATER TODAY AND THEN AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THESE STORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER HIGH THAT HAS RECENTLY
SUPPLIED ALL OF THE HOT WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTH AND VARIOUS MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMERGE ACROSS ITS NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. IN FACT...WE HAVE SEEN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY AT MANY
SPOTS...THANKS TO THE WEAKENING RIDGE IN COMBINATION WITH RATHER
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES
REVEAL A RATHER BROAD CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS WHERE A DIFFUSELY
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY IS RETREATING NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY COULD ACT AS
A FOCUS FOR CI LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CIN GRADUALLY WANING AND
STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY HAVE LIFTED
NORTH OF THE CWA BY THE TIME THIS HAPPENS.

INSTEAD...OUR BETTER STORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WHICH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SEEN EMERGING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL ALSO GIVE A BOOST TO CONVECTION...WITH A
POSSIBLE MCS EVOLVING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THUS...INITIALLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED
TO THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MODERATE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION WITH MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL MODES CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AN ENHANCED
TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
BACKED AND SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE RETREATING BOUNDARY. EXPECT
THE STORMS TO CONGEAL INTO AN MCS TONIGHT AND ROLLING EAST OR
SOUTHEAST AS A SOUTHERLY LLJ CRANKS UP. MOST NWP FAVORS THE
PANHANDLE FOR THE MCS...WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE NORTHERLY
TRACK OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...BUT WOULD NOT BE
TERRIBLY SURPRISED FOR THIS COMPLEX TO CLIP AT LEAST OUR
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN ZONES...AND BRING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ZONES THROUGH
TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH...THE INCREASING CAP AND WANING UPPER SUPPORT
MAKE CONVECTION LESS LIKELY...THOUGH WE HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

THERE SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY LULL IN ACTIVITY TOMORROW
MORNING...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ZONES...BEFORE WE DO EVERYTHING AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IT DOES APPEAR STORM CHANCES WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD
FROM TODAY WITH THE RESURGENT FRONT MAKE A PUSH INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AGAIN...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER MCS
TOMORROW NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WE WILL SEE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE MID-80S NORTH TO
MID-90S SOUTH.

LONG TERM...
FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON IS ON GOOD RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGHS MOVE QUICKLY EWD THROUGH
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES. AT THE LOW LEVELS WILL
SEE A COLD FRONT SAG FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE TOWARD
THE SOUTH PLAINS...FINALLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. FOR
NOW MODELS ARE CONCENTRATING RAINFALL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA...BUT
POTENTIAL EXISTS TO SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH IF ORGANIZED OUTFLOWS EACH
EVENING DRIVE NORTH WINDS INTO THE FCST AREA. EASTERLY COMPONENT
TO LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AS WELL
AS AN UPSLOPE FLOW ONTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD THE NM STATE
LINE. THUS STILL A VERY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO
DEVELOP AND ROLL WEST TO EAST BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT. WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING WILL INCREASE POPS AND QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THE LATTER GENERALLY IN LINE WITH WPC...AND THUS
SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 3 INCH TOTALS FOR MUCH OF THE NERN
THIRD OF THE FCST AREA.

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BEGIN TO BRING AN END TO PRECIP
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH WITH ONE PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY RIDING
SEWD DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE...CANNOT
COMPLETELY DISCOUNT SHOWER OR STORM CHANCES MONDAY. THAT
AMPLIFYING RIDGE WILL THEN BRING WARMER TEMPS NEXT WEEK...PROBABLY
PUSHING THE CENTURY MARK AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER LIKELY AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS MOVING
ESEWD OUT OF NERN NM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT MENTION ACROSS THE
NERN ZONES STILL VALID.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  85  62  79  60 /  60  30  50  30  50
TULIA         65  88  63  78  62 /  60  30  50  40  50
PLAINVIEW     70  89  64  79  63 /  50  30  50  40  50
LEVELLAND     70  94  66  82  65 /  20  20  30  40  50
LUBBOCK       73  93  66  84  65 /  20  20  40  40  50
DENVER CITY   67  96  67  86  66 /  20  20  20  30  40
BROWNFIELD    68  95  67  84  66 /  20  20  30  30  50
CHILDRESS     73  92  68  82  66 /  40  30  60  50  50
SPUR          71  93  68  83  66 /  20  20  50  40  50
ASPERMONT     72  96  72  87  70 /  20  20  40  40  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

05/99/01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1131 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014

TXZ021>044-071645-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1131 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM DENVER
CITY TO GUTHRIE. THE GREATEST THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DOWNBURST WINDS NEAR 70
MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES PERIODICALLY
THREATEN THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.