Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
314 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING S-SE ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL NM. DESPITE THE COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...WE
HAVE SEEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BLOSSOM THE PAST HOUR AS THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A MID-LVL JET STREAK MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND
DECENT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND MID-LVL INSTABILITY CONTINUE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THIS SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS GENERALLY EWD THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE DECREASING LATER TONIGHT...AS WE WON/T
HAVE A LLJ TO MAINTAIN ACTIVITY UNLIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS. MODEST CAPE
WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
NORTH...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT OUT OF QUESTION WE COULD SE SOME MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN UP
INTO INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND THE SRN
ROLLING PLAINS...SO THERE WILL BE A BETTER SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL FOR THOSE AREA. ALSO...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW LCLS AND
GOOD LOW-LVL TURNING GIVEN THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW...A TORNADO
CAN/T BE RULED OUT.

IN ADDITION..WE HAVE SEEN SOME TRAINING CELLS TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS WHICH HAVE PRODUCED IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
TOTAL IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES IN A NARROW BAND. THIS POTENTIAL WILL
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...AND GIVEN THE SATURATED
SOILS...EXCESS RUNOFF AND FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN. JUST DUE TO
PREVIOUS ACTIVITY...AREAS CENTERED AROUND HALE...FLOYD...AND CROSBY
COUNTIES MAY BE THE MOST PRIMED FOR FLOODING CONCERNS.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT AND IF PARTIAL CLEARING MATERIALIZES
WE COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP OVER THE MOIST SOIL. OUR
CONFIDENCE IN THIS WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD THIS TO THE FORECAST
THOUGH.

DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH WRN OKLA INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WE MAY
STILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS AS
WE RECEIVE BETTER SURFACE HEATING...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT DRIER
AIR WILL BE WORKING IN FROM THE NW SO WE WILL KEEP THE CHANCES LOW
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM...
AFTER A MUCH NEEDED SEVERAL DAYS OF RAINFALL ACROSS WEST TEXAS...IT
APPEARS THAT EARLY TOMORROW WILL BE OUR LAST HURRAH AS THE LARGE
UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY SLIDE WEST OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.  AS IT DOES SO...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO WEST
TEXAS...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE AS UPPER RIDGING AND REDUCED
MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION AS WELL.  THIS WILL BE THE START OF
SEVERAL DAYS OF RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING.
MEANWHILE...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTHEAST AND STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...WHERE MODELS
SUGGEST IT WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN OVER THE COURSE OF THE END OF THE
WEEK.  AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CONUS...BUT ITS PROGRESS WILL BE
SLOWED BY PERSISTENT RIDGING ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.  BY THURSDAY...AT
LEAST SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
HURRICANE AMANDA WILL GET CAUGHT IN THE FLOW FROM THE DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH...CARRYING IT ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  UNFORTUNATELY THOUGH...IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL PRIMARILY
AFFECT AREAS OF NEW MEXICO AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
FIRMLY OVERHEAD WEST TEXAS...ALONG WITH VERY WEAK NORTHERLY UPPER
FLOW.  STILL...IT WOULDNT BE TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A
STORM OR TWO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS FRIDAY
EVENING AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND STEERING
FLOW IMPROVES.  ALSO...A FEW BENIGN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CANT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
EITHER...AS DEEP MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT IN RESPONSE TO
MODEST BUT PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

BEYOND SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER DIFFERING SOLUTIONS
REGARDING THE UPPER PATTERN...AND UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND.  THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A VERY PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO...WHICH KEEPS ANY APPROACHING TROUGHS SHUNTED WELL TO THE NORTH
AS THEY ATTEMPT TO EJECT EASTWARD.  THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS NOT
NEARLY AS STRONG WITH THIS RIDGE...AND ALLOWS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH TO DIG FARTHER SOUTHEAST.  NOT
SURPRISINGLY...THE LATTER SOLUTION WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SCENARIO PLAYING OUT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  84  56  87  58 /  20  10   0   0  10
TULIA         53  83  57  86  59 /  40  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     55  83  57  85  60 /  40  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     55  86  56  87  60 /  30  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       58  86  61  88  61 /  40  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   57  87  57  87  59 /  40  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    57  87  57  87  58 /  40  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     61  84  63  90  65 /  60  20  10   0   0
SPUR          60  85  61  88  63 /  60  20  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     64  85  62  89  65 /  70  20  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

33/16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

TXZ021>044-271630-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1130 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND THE
ROLLING PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL UP
TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A TORNADO DEVELOPING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER MOST OF THE REGION THIS PAST
WEEKEND HAS SATURATED SOILS AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

JW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
348 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

TXZ029-034-035-262115-
HALE-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-
348 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LUBBOCK...NORTHERN HOCKLEY AND
HALE COUNTIES...

AT 344 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES WEST OF ABERNATHY...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

IN ADDITION...PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.  GUSTY
WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE OBJECTS
TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.
SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3361 10216 3378 10226 3382 10219 3382 10209
      3389 10209 3404 10184 3383 10166
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 250DEG 17KT 3379 10205

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
355 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

TXZ034-035-040-041-262130-
HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-LYNN-TERRY-
355 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TERRY...LYNN...LUBBOCK  AND
HOCKLEY COUNTIES...

AT 352 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LUBBOCK...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

IN ADDITION...ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50
MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.  GUSTY
WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE OBJECTS
TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.
SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3371 10174 3343 10162 3321 10217 3347 10226
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 254DEG 18KT 3347 10205

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>