Freeze Warning 6, NWS Lubbock, TX

Bailey County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Castro County, TX, Childress County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Garza County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Kent County, TX, King County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Motley County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Terry County, TX, Yoakum County, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
532 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY AT KLBB...WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP NEAR 30 KTS. THE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY RELAX THIS EVENING...THEN
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH BOTH TAF SITES BETWEEN
ABOUT 03 UTC AND 05 UTC. PATCHY LOW STRATUS MAY BRUSH KCDS AFTER
THE FROPA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST MON NOV 10 2014/

SHORT TERM...
BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE TONIGHT BUT WE START OF THE DAY WITH MILD
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF MONTANA AND IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS UP IN SRN SASKATCHEWAN. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PLUNGE
SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE...GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. IN FACT...GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING
A 40 TO 45 KT 700 MB WIND MAX NOSING OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE
FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND WRN SPLNS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEEP MIXING
WE EXPECT TO TAP INTO SOME OF THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR AND THE
RESULT WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS. WE WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
OUR WRN AREAS...WE THINK THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY WEST
OF THE INTERSTATE 27 CORRIDOR. SOME BLOWING DUST IS A POSSIBILITY
BUT THE SOILS MAY NOT BE PRIMED FOR LOFTING SO WE HAVE KEPT A
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL SOAR WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SHY OF RECORD TERRITORY /THE RECORD
HIGH AT LUBBOCK IS 85F/.

THE WIND SHOULD DIE DOWN BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT BLASTS THROUGH. THE LATEST GUIDANCE BRINGS THE FRONT INTO OUR
NRN COUNTIES AROUND 03 UTC AND THROUGH THE CWA BY 09 UTC. AND AS
USUAL...WE EXPECT THE FRONT TO ARRIVE SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN
PROGGED. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE WINDS WILL NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY ACROSS OUR
COUNTIES OF THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. BUT WE WILL WILL DEFER THAT
DECISION PARTLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND PARTLY TO AVOID CONFUSION
WITH THE DAYTIME ADVISORY.

FINALLY...STRONG COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO FALL
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TEND LOWER WITH
TEMPS AND NOW SHOWS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AND ADJACENT ROLLING
PLAINS BELOW FREEZING BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS SUCH WE/VE CONVERTED
THE FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING AND EXPANDED THE COUNTIES COVERED.

LONG TERM...
A FRIGID AIRMASS WILL GET LOCKED INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGHS MAY STILL MAKE THE 40S ON TUESDAY BUT CONTINUED
COLD ADVECTION AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY THURSDAY SHOULD
LIMIT MOST LOCATIONS ON THE CAPROCK TO THE 30S...WITH LOWER 40S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE TEENS AND 20S...AND WE COULD FLIRT WITH SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE. WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE SRN
SPLNS AND MUCH OF THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR WED MORNING. A HARD
FREEZE IS VIRTUALLY ASSURED AREA-WIDE...BUT THE COUNTIES OF THE
WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED ADJUSTMENT DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE
FREEZE TUESDAY MORNING.

LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING...AS
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS ARRIVE WITH ENHANCED /BUT WEAK/ TROUGHING.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE CLOUD COVER COULD MAKE THURSDAY THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD IF IT HANGS IN ALL DAY. BY FRIDAY...THE
COLD AIR OVER THE SRN PLAINS MAY BEGIN TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE FACE OF INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW. THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF THE RETREAT...ESPECIALLY OFF
THE CAPROCK...BUT WE DO EXPECT A GRADUAL..IF SOMEWHAT
MUTED...WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FINALLY...AS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DIG THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND THEN ACROSS WEST TEXAS NEXT
WEEKEND...ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER COLD SURGE...RESULTING IN PRETTY
ROBUST PRECIP CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE GFS MAINTAINS DRY NWERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND DELAYS THE NEXT FRONT BY ABOUT A DAY.
THE BLENDED APPROACH GIVES US A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND A MODEST COOL DOWN BY SUNDAY. THE
PATTERN /PARTICULARLY WHEN WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF/ SUGGESTS A
THREAT OF WINTRY PRECIP BUT DETAILS REMAIN QUITE UNCLEAR.

LOOKING AT THE TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THIS WEEK...THERE IS NOT A
PARTICULAR DAY THAT APPEARS TO BE SLAM-DUNK FOR BREAKING ANY
EXISTING RECORDS. AT LUBBOCK...THE RECORD LOW OF 19 ON WED MORNING
MAY BE IN JEOPARDY. RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS AT LUBBOCK LOOK SAFE AT
THE MOMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  20  43  16  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         79  24  42  18  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     78  24  43  19  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     78  25  45  19  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       79  28  45  21  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   78  30  48  22  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    80  31  47  22  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     83  32  44  22  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          82  32  46  22  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     82  35  46  24  40 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ026-032-037>044.

FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>031-033>037-039>041.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034.

&&

33

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