Severe Thunderstorm Warning 208, NWS St. Louis, MO

197 
WWUS53 KLSX 012252
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
552 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

MOC135-012300-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0208.000000T0000Z-140901T2300Z/
MONITEAU MO-
552 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
MONITEAU COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 549 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CLARKSBURG...
AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JAMESTOWN...KLIEVER...SANDY HOOK AND LUPUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 9262 3892 9250 3883 9244 3882 9243
      3882 9240 3879 9238 3876 9241 3873 9239
      3870 9240 3866 9242 3861 9261 3868 9266
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 251DEG 32KT 3869 9259

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

TRUETT

975 
WWUS53 KLSX 012300
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
600 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

MOC135-012310-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0208.000000T0000Z-140901T2300Z/
MONITEAU MO-
600 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MONITEAU COUNTY
HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS 
EVENING.

LAT...LON 3869 9262 3892 9250 3883 9244 3882 9243
      3882 9240 3879 9238 3876 9241 3873 9239
      3870 9240 3866 9242 3861 9261 3868 9266
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 251DEG 32KT 3871 9251

$$

TRUETT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
341 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Heavy rain threat is the primary forecast challenge for tonight.
Another shortwave is moving east-southeast through the longwave
pattern over the Great Plains.  This shortwave will trigger a
south-southwesterly low level jet to increase again this evening,
aimed right at the low level baroclinic zone left over from last
night's storms.  With plenty of moisture in place over the area and
a baroclinic zone that's parallel or nearly parallel to the mid
level flow, expect that thunderstorms will form and train over parts
of Missouri and Illinois this evening and tonight.  All short range
guidance shows a tremendous amount of moisture convergence on the
nose of the low level jet tonight...generally along and south of the
I-70 corridor.  Think the axis of heaviest rain will actually be
along and south of the I-44 corridor in Missouri and along and south
of I-70 in Illinois, but I cannot rule out heavy rain a little
further north either.  QPF forecast paints a swath of heavy rain
along this axis between 1.5 and 2 inches.  With the potential for
locally higher amounts, and flash flood guidance running around
2-2.5 inches per hour, will go ahead and issue a flash flood watch
for those areas.  Further north across northeast Missouri and west
central Illinois, there could be some widely scattered/isolated
showers and thunderstorms, but I don't think these will train and
cause any flooding issues.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

(Tuesday - Wednesday)

Flat zonal upper flow will remain in the wake of the strong
shortwave expected to pull away by Tuesday morning, with the hot
upper ridge that had given us our period of well above average temps
lurking just to the south.  The synoptic cold front will probably
linger into the STL metro area at the start of Tuesday, but its
associated precipitation likely well out ahead of it by this time
into southern MO and far southern IL.  Any slowing down of the
eastward progress of the shortwave though will favor some
precipitation of some sort extending back close to the STL metro
area.

The upper level pattern at this point is not very favorable for much
more southward progress of the front and so this boundary is
expected to stall somewhere in the southern CWA Tuesday and into
Tuesday night.  The old frontal boundary will probably lose a lot of
its moisture convergence strength Tuesday afternoon and evening and
so only isolated convection is expected in the absence of a low
level jet or upper level support.  The low level jet that will help
refire up a more organized system later on Tuesday night will
probably begin well to the west of our region and not really reach
our area until Wednesday if it holds.

It is for this reason that Wednesday PoPs were tempered until we see
a clearer signal for how this will evolve and develop.

Above average temps expected thru this period but not hot enough to
warrant any sort of heat headline.

(Thursday - Friday)

Well above average temps are currently anticipated during this
stretch, with max temps in the lo-mid 90s.  Peak heat index values
are looking to be from 100-105 for many areas on Thursday and,
depending on whether or not thunderstorms can get going along
approaching cold front, may very well see these values again
on Friday.

Fortunately, it is now September and so these shots of heat should
be relatively short-lived...with it all expected to come to an end
once the front moves thru Friday night.  Boosted PoPs to just below
likely for Friday night.

(Saturday - next Monday)

A well deserved cool period still in the offing in the wake of this
front with a 1025mb high pressure to be the dominant influence
during this period.  Max temps may struggle to exit the 70s in many
areas.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

Expect VFR flight conditions to prevail through much of the
afternoon. Scattered light showers will continue through the early
afternoon across parts of southeast Missouri. West to southwest
wind will gust to around 24kts. Expecting thunderstorms to
redevelop somewhere over west central or southwest Missouri later
this afternoon and spread northeast into parts of central and
eastern Missouri and southwest Illinois this evening. Storms will
likely train along and south of the I-70/I-44 corridor tonight
producing IFR conditions in heavy rain. Storms should move south
and begin to dissipate between 08-12Z.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail this afternoon at
Lambert. Latest thoughts are that thunderstorms will develop over
southwest/west central Missouri and spread east-northeast into
eastern Missouri by early this evening. A prolonged period of
thunderstorms with occasional heavy rain will likely impact the
terminal during the mid-late evening. Storms should move south of
the terminal between 06-11Z; timing is uncertain at this time.
After storms exit the STL Metro area, expect MVFR CIGs to rise to
VFR during the morning.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday
     morning FOR Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
     Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-Osage MO-
     Reynolds MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City
     MO-St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday
     morning FOR Bond IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Madison IL-Marion
     IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
     Washington IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
330 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-021200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
330 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE
UNTIL LATE EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A THREAT
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBIA MISSOURI TO LITCHFIELD
ILLINOIS...INCLUDING THE SAINT LOUIS METRO AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN RETURN FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED UNTIL LATE EVENING FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. SPOTTERS ARE ALSO ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH OR ANY FLOODING...IF
OBSERVED...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TES