Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS St. Louis, MO

935 
WWUS53 KLSX 201245
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
745 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ILC083-201256-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0202.000000T0000Z-140820T1315Z/
JERSEY IL-
745 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN JERSEY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3908 8979 3900 9003 3900 9010 3910 9015
      3918 9015 3918 9014
TIME...MOT...LOC 1246Z 297DEG 23KT 3912 9006

$$

ILC117-201315-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0202.000000T0000Z-140820T1315Z/
MACOUPIN IL-
745 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
MACOUPIN COUNTY UNTIL 815 AM CDT...

AT 742 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SHIPMAN...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHIPMAN...BUNKER HILL...WILSONVILLE...ROYAL LAKES...PRUETT AND
DORCHESTER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST
LOUIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3908 8979 3900 9003 3900 9010 3910 9015
      3918 9015 3918 9014
TIME...MOT...LOC 1246Z 297DEG 23KT 3912 9006

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

TES

745 
WWUS53 KLSX 201310
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
810 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ILC117-201320-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0202.000000T0000Z-140820T1315Z/
MACOUPIN IL-
810 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MACOUPIN COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 815 AM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
 HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3908 8979 3900 9003 3900 9010 3910 9015
      3918 9015 3918 9014
TIME...MOT...LOC 1310Z 297DEG 23KT 3905 8988

$$

TES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
646 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Main focus thru the period will be PoPs, which will influence
temps today and therefore, also headlines.

There is still some uncertainty regarding heat headlines thru the
weekend, but will go ahead and issue a Heat Advisory for portions
of central and ern MO and SW IL. This expansion is due to expected
heat index values of 100+ for at least 4 days. However, values of
105+ degrees may be possible across the adv area, especially Thurs
and Fri. This adv may need to be expanded to include counties not
currently in the adv. However, since criteria is not expected to
be reached today, will handle that area tomorrow.

Dewpoints are the main question as portions of central and SE MO
have been mixing out well the past few days. These are the areas
that have seen the least rainfall lately and generally mix out
well during the day. Have therefore kept the ern Ozarks out of the
adv for now.

As for PoPs...the HRRR, local 4km WRF and the 4km NSSL WRF seem
to be handling the current convection fairly well. Have therefore
tailored PoPs for the remainder of today and into tonight twd
those solns. In general, ongoing storms over IA and far NE MO shud
move sewd impacting mainly the nrn portions of the CWA this
morning. Mdls suggest storms developing this afternoon over the
ern Ozarks or along the MS Rvr, but these shud remain isod. For
tonight, storms shud remain focused along the fnt and where 850mb
convergence is greatest. Believe the best chances will remain NE
of the CWA, but have kept slight chance PoPs along the nern
counties due to uncertainty.

A lot of questions remain regarding temps today due to possible
convection. However, have trended above the cooler MOS, but stayed
below the warmer MOS. Overall, this verified fairly well
yesterday. Temps for tonight are a little more complex as mixing
shud be greater across central MO. However, have trended above the
warmer MOS due to swly winds thru the night.

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Focus thru the period will be temps and the ongoing heat
headlines.

Much of the questions regarding dewpoints and headlines continues
thru the weekend as mentioned above and will therefore not dwell
on the uncertainties here. Dewpoints across the ern Ozarks and
perhaps into central MO are expected to mix out during the
afternoon. The rainfall over the past few days shud help drive up
dewpoints across NE MO and much of SW IL. Overall not much change
to the prev forecast as it appears to be on track.

The GEM continues to be an outlier especially beyond Sat and have
therefore trended twd the other guidance. The local WRF and to
some degree the NAM also trend away from a GFS/ECMWF compromise
for Fri and beyond and have therefore trended away from these
solns as well.

The main changes from yesterday are how this heat event comes to
an end. The GFS/ECMWF now suggest the upper ridge, while weaker,
will remain in place into Tues. However, both mdls prog cooler
850mb and 700mb temps which shud still result in cooler temps as
well as an increase in precip chances. These precip chances will
be mainly afternoon pulse TSRA as a s/w approaches the region from
the SE.

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Visual Flight Rules expected for all TAF sites except KUIN.
Scattered morning thunderstorms there should end by noon however.
Otherwise all TAF sites will see relatively light southwest winds
today, with some VFR clouds moving in overnight, but no rain is
expected.

Specifics for KSTL: Visual Flight Rules expected through this TAF
period. Southwest winds around 10 mph today will continue tonight
as a deck of VFR clouds moves in.

Browning

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     95  75  96  77 /  30  10   5  10
Quincy          89  71  93  73 /  50  20  10  10
Columbia        94  73  96  74 /  20  10   5  10
Jefferson City  94  73  97  74 /  10  10   5  10
Salem           90  72  92  73 /  20  20  10  10
Farmington      94  70  95  72 /  20  10   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT Sunday FOR
     Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Franklin MO-
     Gasconade MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-
     Montgomery MO-Osage MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-Ste.
     Genevieve MO-Warren MO.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT
     Sunday FOR St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT Sunday FOR
     Bond IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin
     IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Randolph IL-Washington IL.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT
     Sunday FOR Madison IL-St. Clair IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
505 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-211200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
505 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NO
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

A DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS
THIS AFTERNOON. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING OR EXCEEDING 105
DEGREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

TILLY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
727 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ILZ059-060-201315-
MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-
727 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY AND
SOUTHERN MACOUPIN COUNTIES UNTIL 815 AM CDT...

AT 726 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SHIPMAN...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CARLINVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  GILLESPIE...
  STAUNTON...
  LITCHFIELD...
  SHIPMAN...
  WILSONVILLE...
  BENLD...
  MOUNT OLIVE...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT BEAVER DAM STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
INTERSTATE 55 IN ILLINOIS FROM EXIT 41 TO EXIT 52.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

IN ADDITION...THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR
LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

TES