Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS St. Louis, MO

372 
WWUS53 KLSX 221700
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1200 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MOC103-205-221708-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0196.000000T0000Z-140722T1715Z/
KNOX MO-SHELBY MO-
1200 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SHELBY AND SOUTH CENTRAL KNOX
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST SHELBY COUNTY 
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SHEBYVILLE...CLARENCE LINE...AND INTO NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF MONROE COUNTY...THROUGH 1230 PM.

LAT...LON 3977 9185 3969 9184 3966 9185 3966 9211
      3967 9215 3993 9230 3995 9229 4003 9210
TIME...MOT...LOC 1658Z 329DEG 23KT 3978 9204

$$

TRUETT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
729 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 728 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Updated forecast for northeast MO and west central IL this morning
as isolated thunderstorms (some quite strong) continue to develop
in southeast IA and drift toward the northern reaches of the CWA.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

During the day today the upper ridge will remain in place with
surface temperatures expected to warm up into the low to mid 90s.
Low level moisture continues to increase as well, so will see heat
indicies between 100 and 105 for central and northeast MO as well as
west central IL.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

In the meantime, cold front associated with next weather system
to move into far northern portions of MO by 00z Wednesday. Short
term models begin to develop complex along frontal boundary around
this time and track it to the south and southeast through forecast
area tonight. Some differences on timing and coverage between the
models, so went with a blend and increased pops to likely late
this evening and into the overnight hours as it moves through.
Despite all of the instability and moisture, some concern about
mid level capping, but confident cap will weaken sufficiently to
allow storm development. With decent capes, moisture and
instability, SPC has placed northern portions of forecast area in
a slight risk for tonight with main threats being large hail and
damaging winds.

System to continue tracking south through southern portions of
forecast area Wednesday morning, before tapering off Wednesday
afternoon. As for highs on Wednesday, will range from the low 80s
far north to around 90 far south.

By Wednesday night, surface ridge begins to build in and bring in
drier and cooler weather for the last half of the work week. Highs
on Thursday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Surface ridge to move off to the east by Friday with a warm front
developing across region with elevated convection possible for
portions of forecast area Friday and Friday night. Then as main cold
front moves into region on Saturday, will see additional rounds of
storms through Sunday night before system exits region on Monday.
Temperatures to moderate through the weekend once again.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

VFR conditions are anticipated today with southwest wind around
10KT. Cold front will move across the area this evening and
overnight with thunderstorms expected to develop along and ahead
of the front. Conditions could dip into MVFR range with
thunderstorms, otherwise a wind shift to the northwest will occur
with the front.

Specifics for KSTL:
Expect thunderstorm complex ahead of the cold front will move
across the terminal around 06Z with a temporary reduction in
visibility, a wind shift to the northwest and potential for some
gusts to 25KT. Conditions will rapidly improve on Wednesday with
north wind.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
407 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-231200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
407 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

BYRD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
947 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MOZ018-019-221530-
KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-
947 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LEWIS AND KNOX COUNTIES UNTIL
1030 AM CDT...

AT 941 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GREENSBURG...OR 10 MILES
NORTH OF EDINA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. STORM SPOTTERS IN
SCOTLAND COUNTY HAVE REPORTED PENNEY SIZE HAIL WITH THIS STORM.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  EDINA...
  COLONY...
  KNOX CITY...
  LA BELLE...
  PLEVNA...
  LEWISTOWN...
  STEFFENVILLE...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

JPK