Severe Thunderstorm Warning 193, NWS St. Louis, MO

387 
WWUS53 KLSX 141913
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
213 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

ILC013-141923-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0193.000000T0000Z-140714T1930Z/
CALHOUN IL-
213 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN CALHOUN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 3874 9068 3879 9055 3886 9038 3880 9028
      3861 9057
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 316DEG 21KT 3878 9029 3872 9042
          3868 9059

$$

MOC183-189-141930-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0193.000000T0000Z-140714T1930Z/
ST. CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
213 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL ST.
LOUIS AND CENTRAL ST. CHARLES COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 210 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM FLORISSANT TO MARYLAND HEIGHTS TO WELDON SPRING...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHESTERFIELD.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES FIRST MISSOURI STATE CAPITOL HISTORIC SITE.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 70 IN MISSOURI FROM EXIT 227 TO EXIT 231.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3874 9068 3879 9055 3886 9038 3880 9028
      3861 9057
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 316DEG 21KT 3878 9029 3872 9042
          3868 9059

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

BRITT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1238 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2014

Updated grids and zones for severe thunderstorm watch through 6 pm.

Byrd
&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2014

Focus this period will be precip chances as well as the svr threat
associated with these storms.

Mdls are in relatively good agreement with a cdfnt pushing thru the
CWA today. The NAM is slightly slower than other guidance, but only
by a couple of hours. This fnt will reinforce a weaker baroclinic
zone that is shifting S of the CWA early this morning.

This zone is expected to continue to produce TSRA S of the CWA
during the day. The cdfnt is currently progd to reach the MO/IA
border around 12z this morning. By 18z, the fnt is progd to be
near a PPQ to MBY line before pushing S of the CWA by 03z. While
isod SHRA may accompany this fnt this morning, believe the greater
coverage will hold off until around Noon today. Mdls prog K index
values around 40 C along and ahead of the fnt. This, coupled with
the timing of the fnt, shud limit the svr threat in the CWA.
However, mdls prog around 1500 J/kg SBCAPE along and ahead of the
fnt, which may support isod near svr storms.

Focus tonight will be temps as the fnt continues to push S of the
area with high pressure building into the region. Clouds shud clear
out quickly with winds diminishing. With such cool dewpoints, have
trended twd the cooler guidance.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2014

(Tuesday through Wednesday)

Focus thru this period will be temps. Mdls are in rather good
agreement thru the period. A large sfc ridge is progd to build
into the region tonight behind the cdfnt mentioned above. Mdls
agree with 805 mb temps in the 8 C to 10 C degree range thru Wed
which shud keep highs in the low to mid 70s. The cool dewpoints
with this sfc ridge will allow lows to drop well into the 50s and
perhaps into the 40s in some spots.

(Thursday through Sunday)

Mdl solns quickly diverge at the beginning of this period. Mdl
mass fields do not differ much until the GFS develops an upper low
late Thurs into Fri. Believe this is a result of the convection
developed on Wed and Thurs across the Plains. Also believe at
least the nrn portions of this convection is due to convective
feedback. With the GFS soln as an outlier and the ECMWF/GEM in
rather good agreement, have trended away from the GFS soln.
Overall, not much change from the prev forecast with temps well
below avg until Sun.

Tilly
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2014

Strong secondary cold frontal boundary moving south through
forecast area this afternoon. Could see some lingering showers at
KUIN...so kept vcnty showers there through 20z. As for rest of taf
sites, storms to move into KCOU by 18z and metro area by 19z. Best
timing is for activity to exit between 20z and 22z. Have added
tempo groups to these tafs with mvfr cigs/vsbys with the storms.
Otherwise, vfr conditions to prevail. Winds to persist from the
northwest through the forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:
Strong secondary cold frontal boundary moving south through
forecast area this afternoon. Storms to move into metro area by
19z...so have added tempo group to taf with mvfr cigs/vsbys with
the storms exiting by 22z. Otherwise, vfr conditions to prevail.
Winds to persist from the northwest through the forecast period.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
349 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-151200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
349 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE REGION.
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...A
FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ON THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN QUINCY AND SAVERTON. PLEASE SEE THE
APPROPRIATE FLOOD WARNING OR STATEMENT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ON THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN QUINCY AND SAVERTON EARLY THIS WEEK.
PLEASE SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD WARNING OR STATEMENT FOR
SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

TILLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
112 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 PM     HAIL             3 WSW LOHMAN            38.53N  92.41W
07/14/2014  E1.00 INCH       COLE               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL BETWEEN NICKEL AND QUARTER. VERY HIGH WINDS AS
            WELL...SOME TREE DAMAGE IN AREA

0105 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WSW LOHMAN            38.53N  92.41W
07/14/2014                   COLE               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL BETWEEN NICKEL AND QUARTER. VERY HIGH WINDS AS
            WELL...SOME TREE DAMAGE IN AREA

&&

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
123 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0108 PM     HAIL             RUSSELLVILLE            38.51N  92.44W
07/14/2014  E0.25 INCH       COLE               MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
130 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0122 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E WARDSVILLE          38.49N  92.15W
07/14/2014  E50 MPH          COLE               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER DESCRIBED WINDS ESTIMATED BETWEEN 40-50 MPH

&&

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
132 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0131 PM     HAIL             4 SE LINN               38.44N  91.79W
07/14/2014  E0.25 INCH       OSAGE              MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            ALSO...ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN IN 5 MINUTES.

&&

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
143 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0142 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LINN                    38.48N  91.84W
07/14/2014  M1.25 INCH       OSAGE              MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            IN 15 MINUTES

&&

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
148 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     TSTM WND GST     WARRENTON               38.82N  91.14W
07/14/2014  E45 MPH          WARREN             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWER BRIEFLY WENT OUT.

&&

CVKING