Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS St. Louis, MO

713 
WWUS53 KLSX 080343
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1043 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

MOC007-103-111-127-137-173-205-080415-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0181.000000T0000Z-140708T0415Z/
KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY MO-AUDRAIN MO-
1043 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
AUDRAIN...SHELBY...NORTHWESTERN RALLS...MONROE...MARION...LEWIS AND
EASTERN KNOX COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1041 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF LEWISTOWN TO 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
SHELBINA TO 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF STURGEON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
50 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PARIS...MONROE CITY...CANTON...SANTA FE...PALMYRA...EWING...WARREN...
PHILADELPHIA...MAYWOOD...RENSSELAER...PERRY...STOUTSVILLE...INDIAN
CREEK...FLORIDA...TAYLOR AND THE LANDING.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES MARK TWAIN LAKE RECREATIONAL AREA AND UNION
COVERED BRIDGE HISTORIC SITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4028 9195 4026 9194 4023 9152 3968 9150
      3923 9179 3925 9232 4030 9218
TIME...MOT...LOC 0343Z 294DEG 43KT 4013 9169 3962 9188
          3933 9217

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

GLASS

605 
WWUS53 KLSX 080357
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1057 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

MOC007-103-111-127-137-173-205-080415-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0181.000000T0000Z-140708T0415Z/
KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY MO-AUDRAIN MO-
1057 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
AUDRAIN...EASTERN SHELBY...NORTHWESTERN RALLS...MONROE...MARION...
LEWIS AND EASTERN KNOX COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1053 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CANTON TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MONROE CITY TO 7 MILES
NORTHEAST OF STURGEON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS SOUTHERN 
         KNOX COUNTY AND TREE LIMBS WERE DOWN IN LA BELLE.

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SANTA FE...PALMYRA...RENSSELAER...PERRY...THE LANDING AND TAYLOR.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES MARK TWAIN LAKE RECREATIONAL AREA AND UNION
COVERED BRIDGE HISTORIC SITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3984 9206 4028 9207 4028 9195 4026 9194
      4023 9152 3968 9150 3923 9179 3925 9232
TIME...MOT...LOC 0356Z 294DEG 43KT 4015 9154 3951 9176
          3929 9215

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

GLASS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
736 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 617 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014

Scattered thunderstorms are developing across the St. Louis Metro
as hot and unstable airmass interacts with remnant outflow
boundary stretching from northwest St. Charles County to south St.
Louis City. These storms could produce large hail or locally
damaging winds. The greater threat of severe weather remains with
the expected line of storms later this evening and overnight from
the northwest.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014

(Tonight)

Main concern continues to be the potential for severe weather late
tonight...specifically damaging winds.  Not much change from
previous thinking that thunderstorms will initiate late this
afternoon and early this evening over Nebraska and Kansas along a
surface front as a shortwave trough approaches the area from the
northwest.  These storms will increase in intensity and congeal into
an MCS as they move southeast along the front into Missouri during
the late evening and overnight hours. Strong low level moisture
convergence along the front along with forcing with the shortwave
will support the MCS.  Decent values MUCAPE and low level and deep
layer shear values will allow the MCS to stay severe into central
and eastern Missouri and adjacent sections of Illinois into the
overnight hours.  In addition, precipitable water still suggest that
the MCS will produce very heavy rainfall rates.  However given
progressive nature of MCS and high flash flood guidance numbers will
just mention locally heavy rainfall in the HWO at this time.

Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014

(Tuesday through Thursday)

On Tuesday, the front will be moving south and out of the CWA about
the time that thunderstorms will be initiating during the early-mid
afternoon hours.  There is still some potential that one or two of
these storms could become severe before they move out of the CWA
during the late afternoon hours.

The front will then move well south of the area Wednesday into
Thursday as the flow becomes northwesterly aloft.  The area will lie
under mainly subsidence during this period, so have kept these two
days dry.  850 mb temperatures will be between 12-18C promising
below normal temperatures.

(Friday through next Monday)

Warm front is still on track to move through the area on Friday and
Saturday causing temperatures to climb back closer to normal.  The
front will keep scattered thunderstorms in the forecast.  850 mb
temperatures of 18-20C call for temperatures at or just above
normal.  ECMWF sets up northwesterly flow over the area quicker than
the GFS on Saturday and Sunday, so consequently it is trying to
bring a cold front through the CWA faster. This solution is faster
than in previous runs, so went with the slower idea with a cold
front entering the northern part of the CWA on Sunday morning and
move it south across the area through Monday.  Will continue the
chance of thunderstorms into early next week.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 703 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014

Scattered thunderstorms in the STL Metro area should begin to
diminish over the next hour or two. Further upstream, expect the
line of storms currently over southeast Nebraska/Southwest Iowa to
continue moving southeast. Not sure if the line will become more
organized and accelerate, but it should continue southeast and
affect the entire area. Wind gusts in excess of 40kts will be
possible and IFR flight conditions in heavy rain. If the line can
get well organized, there will likely be at least a couple of
hours of light to moderate rain behind the main line of storms.
MVFR conditions are likely in this area. Expect rain to taper off
and end by 12-15Z Tuesday.

Specifics for KSTL:

Scattered thunderstorms in the STL Metro area should begin to
diminish over the next hour or two. Further upstream, expect the
line of storms currently over southeast Nebraska/Southwest Iowa to
continue moving southeast. Not sure if the line will become more
organized and accelerate, but at its current speed the storms may
affect Lambert as early as 06Z. Wind gusts in excess of 40kts will be
possible and IFR flight conditions in heavy rain. If the line can
get well organized, there will likely be at least a couple of
hours of light to moderate rain behind the main line of storms.
MVFR conditions are likely in this area. Expect rain to taper off
and end by 12-15Z Tuesday.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
359 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-081115-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
359 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. LARGE
HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL BE TAKING PLACE AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ON
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NORTH OF GRAFTON. PLEASE SEE THE
APPROPRIATE FLOOD WARNING OR STATEMENT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL EXPAND TO MANY LOCATIONS ON THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER NORTH OF GRAFTON FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MAJOR
FLOODING IS ALSO FORECAST ALONG ON THE CUIVRE RIVER AT OLD MONROE
AND ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER AT HARDIN.  PLEASE SEE THE
APPROPRIATE FLOOD WARNING OR STATEMENT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE.

BRITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
803 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0802 PM     HAIL             HOUSE SPRINGS           38.42N  90.57W
07/07/2014  E0.25 INCH       JEFFERSON          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DYE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
804 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0803 PM     HAIL             ARNOLD                  38.43N  90.37W
07/07/2014  E0.50 INCH       JEFFERSON          MO   STORM CHASER

&&

DYE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
814 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0814 PM     HAIL             IMPERIAL                38.37N  90.38W
07/07/2014  M1.50 INCH       JEFFERSON          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CARNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
826 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0824 PM     HAIL             2 N CEDAR HILL          38.39N  90.64W
07/07/2014  E1.50 INCH       JEFFERSON          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CARNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
912 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             3 SE CEDAR HILL         38.33N  90.60W
07/07/2014  M2.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CARNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1008 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0913 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SE CEDAR HILL         38.33N  90.60W
07/07/2014  M2.11 INCH       JEFFERSON          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL FROM THIS EVENING

&&

CARNEY