River Flood Warning 93, NWS St. Louis, MO

117 
WGUS83 KLSX 101333
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
833 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following river in 
Missouri...


  Dardenne Creek at St. Peters


.This will be the last statement for this event...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC183-101403-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0093.000000T0000Z-140911T1738Z/
/DRCM7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
833 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Dardenne Creek at St. Peters.
* At 8:10 AM Wednesday the stage was 16.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river crested below flood stage at 17.7 feet last 
  night.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     09/11  09/12  09/13  09/14  09/15

Dardenne Creek
  St. Peters      18.0   16.40      13.0    7.5    4.4    3.5    3.3

&&

LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061 3876 9062                       

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
722 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 718 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2014

Expanded Flash Flood Watch a few counties to the south. The warm
front has nearly stalled and convection continues to develop to
the northeast of the boundary across eastern Missouri with
impressive rainfall rates noted by trained weather spotters. The
more concerning observation is that the convection has "linked up"
with the developing MCS stretching from northwest MO to southeast
IA. Many factors lead me to believe that there will be a large
amount of echo that will move east/southeast north of the warm
front tonight with the potential for very heavy rainfall and flash
flooding. Will need to continue to watch the trends but would not
be surprised if we don't have to expand further southeast toward
or into the St. Louis Metro if the warm front stay stationary.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2014

Overall scenario for tonight should be for scattered storms
continuing along old outflow over northern sections of the CWA this
evening, with hit and miss storms elsewhere dissipating with loss of
heating.  Then, main wave of convection that forms over the
mid-Missouri Valley this evening should then roll east, with
southern fringes of the MCS sweeping across northern sections of
CWA primarily during the predawn hours.

Heavy rain threat remains the primary concern for tonight for
northern sections of the CWA.  While main focus for heavy rain and
flash flooding appears to be north of our FA, persistently active
outflow from just north of STL metro to near IRK is becoming more of
a concern.  With a gradual increase of storms noted in this area
over the last hour or so, and with this uptick expected to continue
for several more hours as AMS continues to destabilize, the outflow
should intensify, with additional development then possible during
the evening before southern portion of the expected MCS pushes into
the region during the predawn hours.  With this possible scenario in
mind, will be issuing a flash flood watch for areas along and north
of a IRK-PPQ line for tonight.  This may be a bit pestimistic,
but very moist nature of this AMS with pwats over 2 inches, along
with MUCAPES of 3000-4000 J/KG in the source region over eastern
KS/w MO, storms will be very effective rain-makers.

Severe weather threat will also mimic above trends, with some threat
of damaging winds and perhaps hail with the stronger storms in our
north this evening, with an additional wind threat with the MCS
during the overnight hours.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2014

Guidance remains in very good agreement with precipitation potential
for Wednesday and into Wednesday night.   Overnight convection
should roll east out of the area during the morning hours, with a
lull in precip for several hours before AMS destabilizes and new
convection develops along and ahead of strong cold front.   AMS in
the warm sector ahead of the front will remain very moist so storms
will certainly be capable of producing heavy rain, however by this
time convection should be progressive so that flooding potential
should be less than that of tonight.  Severe weather also remains a
concern, and extent/severity will be tied to how much AMS will be
able to recover and destabilize by the time of fropa.  Favorable
wind profile as well as high pwats suggest primary severe weather
threat would be damaging winds.   The swath of convection along and
ahead of the front should push southeast Wednesday night, with the
rain threat ending along and north of a COU-PPQ line by midnight.

By Thursday most of the precip should be south of our area, with the
possible expection of a few lingering showers in our far southern
counties during the morning.  Thursday's generally dry conditions
will then give way to a few showers Friday and Friday night as a
secondary shortwave digs into the long wave trof, along with a
reinforcing shot of cool air.

Synoptic models are remaining in decent agreement with the intensity
of the colder air pushing into the region late this week and into
the weekend.  Highs on Thursday should drop back into the 60s and
70s. with 60s across the entire area for the last 2 days of the week
and widespread lows in the 40s by Sunday morning.  Some moderation
in temps are forecast for early next week but it will be modest, and
temperatures should remain below normal.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2014

Very busy late afternoon with numerous thunderstorms developing in
the vicinity of a lifting warm front. These storms are forecast by
all model guidance to dissipate shortly after sunset with the
focus shifting north and northwest where MCS is taking shape.
Model guidance shows majority of this activity should lift
northeast, but hard to ignore that the warm front has stalled with
this late afternoon/early evening convection. Would not be
surprised if at least a portion of the MCS doesn't take a right
along the warm front and impact terminals overnight. This will be
most true at KUIN, but other sites could also be impacted.

Cold front expected to move south across the region on Wednesday
which should spark additional thunderstorms along and south of
I-70 tomorrow afternoon with winds turning to the northwest.

Specifics for KSTL:

Could see a few showers impact the terminal early this evening,
but focus will be to the north watching the developing MCS.
Additional thunderstorms may build southeast along the warm front
tonight before it lifts northeast. Will nowcast this possibility
and focus the best chances of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon
with the approaching cold front.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR Audrain MO-Knox
     MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR Adams IL-Brown IL-
     Pike IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
411 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-101130-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
411 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE... WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A KIRKSVILLE...PITTSFIELD LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.  SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
922 PM CDT TUE SEP 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0918 PM     TSTM WND GST     ST. PETERS              38.78N  90.61W
09/09/2014  E40 MPH          ST. CHARLES        MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

GOSSELIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
934 PM CDT TUE SEP 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0932 PM     HAIL             8 N CANTON              40.25N  91.52W
09/09/2014  E0.70 INCH       LEWIS              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GOSSELIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
949 PM CDT TUE SEP 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0948 PM     HEAVY RAIN       UNION                   38.45N  91.01W
09/09/2014  M2.50 INCH       FRANKLIN           MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            RAINFALL TOTAL FOR TODAY.

&&

GOSSELIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
949 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

ILZ098-MOZ052-061-100330-
CALHOUN IL-LINCOLN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-
949 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ST. CHARLES...
SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN AND CALHOUN COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 945 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF ST. PAUL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  WINFIELD...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

KANOFSKY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1017 PM CDT TUE SEP 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ST. PETERS              38.78N  90.61W
09/09/2014                   ST. CHARLES        MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WINDOWS BLOWN OUT OF A RESIDENCE. ALSO MULTIPLE TREES
            AND FENCES DOWN.

&&

GOSSELIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1018 PM CDT TUE SEP 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ST. PETERS              38.78N  90.61W
09/09/2014                   ST. CHARLES        MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WINDOW BLOWN OUT OF A RESIDENCE ALONG WITH SHINGLES OFF
            OF A ROOF. ALSO MULTIPLE TREES AND FENCES DOWN.

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

GOSSELIN