Alert archive / Missouri / River Flood Warnings in 2014

River Flood Warning 74, NWS St. Louis, MO

June 22, 2014Lincoln County, Missouri

NWS St. Louis, MO issued this river flood warning at Jun 22, 2014, 8:51 PM CDT for Lincoln County, Missouri. It took effect at Jun 28, 2014, 7:00 PM CDT. It was in force for 7 days.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 22, 2014, 8:51 PM CDT (01:51 UTC)
In effect from
Jun 28, 2014, 7:00 PM CDT
Expired
Jul 5, 2014, 7:00 PM CDT
In force
7 days
Issued by
NWS St. Louis, MO
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

County Lincoln County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 10 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Cuivre River at Old Monroe (OMNM7).

Action stage
22 ft
Minor stage
24 ft
Moderate stage
27 ft
Major stage
30 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 05514705, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

895 
WGUS43 KLSX 230151
FLWLSX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
851 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

...The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a flood 
warning for the following river in Missouri... 

  Cuivre River at Old Monroe affecting Lincoln County

.This flood warning is a result of Mississippi river backwater and
heavy rainfall during the past 24 hours...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The National Weather Service will monitor this situation and issue
follow up statements as conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC113-240151-
/O.NEW.KLSX.FL.W.0074.140629T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/OMNM7.1.ER.140629T0000Z.140630T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
851 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  the Cuivre River at Old Monroe
* from Saturday evening until further notice.
* Latest estimated reading 18.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast:  The river is forecast to rise above flood stage next
  weekend and crest near 24.5 feet Tuesday evening July 1st.
* Impact:  At 24.5 feet...Extensive left bank agricultural flooding 
  develops upstream of the gage.  A utility road is flooded along the
  Old Monroe levee along the left bank upstream of the gage.
* Impact:  At 24.0 feet...Initial flooding upstream.
* Impact:  At 23.5 feet...Minor agricultural land begins to flood.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     06/23  06/24  06/25  06/26  06/27

Cuivre River
  Old Monroe      24.0  E18.9       19.5   20.7   21.5   22.5   23.1


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$
9 follow-up statements
348 
WGUS83 KLSX 231635
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1135 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Missouri...
 
  
              The Cuivre River at 

                 ...Old Monroe

.This Flood Warning is a result of rainfall runoff and backwater from
the Mississippi River...


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Heavy rains could cause river levels to rise even higher than predicted.  

The National Weather Service will continue to monitor this situation and 
issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC113-241635-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0074.140629T0600Z-000000T0000Z/
/OMNM7.1.ER.140629T0600Z.140630T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1135 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cuivre River at Old Monroe.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river will rise to near flood stage by Saturday.
* Impact: At 24.5 feet...Extensive left bank agricultural flooding 
  develops upstream of the gage.  A utility road is flooded along the
  Old Monroe levee along the left bank upstream of the gage.
* Impact:  At 24.0 feet...Initial flooding upstream.
* Impact:  At 23.5 feet...Minor agricultural land begins to flood.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     06/24  06/25  06/26  06/27  06/28

Cuivre River
  Old Monroe      24.0   E19.70     21.3   22.8   23.4   23.7   23.8


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$
435 
WGUS83 KLSX 240127
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
827 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014

...The flood warning continues for the following river in 
Missouri...
 
  Cuivre River at Old Monroe 

.This flood warning is due to Mississippi river backwater and runoff
from recent rainfall...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rains could cause river levels to rise even higher than 
predicted.  The National Weather Service will monitor this situation
and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC113-250127-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0074.140626T0600Z-000000T0000Z/
/OMNM7.1.ER.140626T0600Z.140630T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
827 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cuivre River at Old Monroe
* Until further notice.
* Latest estimated stage 20.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river is forecast to rise above flood stage late
  Wednesday and crest near 24.5 feet Tuesday morning July 1st.
* Impact:  At 24.5 feet...Extensive left bank agricultural flooding 
  develops upstream of the gage.  A utility road is flooded along the
  Old Monroe levee along the left bank upstream of the gage.
* Impact:  At 24.0 feet...Initial flooding upstream.
* Impact:  At 23.5 feet...Minor agricultural land begins to flood.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     06/24  06/25  06/26  06/27  06/28

Cuivre River
  Old Monroe      24.0   E20.5      21.6   23.5   24.1   24.0   24.0


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$
164 
WGUS83 KLSX 241621
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1121 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Missouri...
 
  
               The Cuivre River at

                 ...Old Monroe 


.This Flood Warning is a result of backwater from the Mississippi River...



All stages for this statement are estimated.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


The National Weather Service will continue to monitor this situation and
issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC113-251621-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0074.140628T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/OMNM7.1.ER.140628T0000Z.140701T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1121 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cuivre River at Old Monroe.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river is forecast to crest near 24.2 feet next Tuesday.
* Impact: At 24.5 feet...Extensive left bank agricultural flooding 
  develops upstream of the gage.  A utility road is flooded along the
  Old Monroe levee along the left bank upstream of the gage.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     06/25  06/26  06/27  06/28  06/29

Cuivre River
  Old Monroe      24.0   E21.6     E22.9  E23.5  E23.9  E24.0  E24.0


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$
795 
WGUS83 KLSX 250126
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
826 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Missouri..


  Cuivre River 

	at Old Monroe


.This Flood Warning is a result of backwater from the Mississippi 
River...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The National Weather Service will monitor this situation and issue 
follow up statements as conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC113-260126-
/O.CON.KLSX.FL.W.0074.140628T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/OMNM7.1.ER.140628T0000Z.140701T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
826 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cuivre River at Old Monroe
* from Friday evening until further notice.
* At 7:00 PM Tuesday the stage was estimated to be 22.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast:  The river is forecast to rise above flood stage Friday 
  evening and continue rising to near 24.2 feet next Tuesday morning.
* Impact:  At 24.5 feet...Extensive left bank agricultural flooding 
  develops upstream of the gage.  A utility road is flooded along the
  Old Monroe levee along the left bank upstream of the gage.
* Impact:  At 24.0 feet...Initial flooding upstream.
* Impact:  At 23.5 feet...Minor agricultural land begins to flood.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     06/25  06/26  06/27  06/28  06/29

Cuivre River
  Old Monroe      24.0   E22.10      22.5   23.4   23.9   24.0   24.0


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$
443 
WGUS83 KLSX 251602
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1102 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Missouri...
 
  

               The Cuivre River at 

                 ...Old Monroe


.This Flood Warning is a result of backwater from the Mississippi River.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


The National Weather Service will monitor this developing situation and
issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC113-261602-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0074.140629T1200Z-000000T0000Z/
/OMNM7.1.ER.140629T1200Z.140701T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1102 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cuivre River at Old Monroe.
* from Sunday morning until further notice.
* At 8:20 AM Wednesday the stage was 21.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast: The river will rise above flood stage by Sunday morning 
  and then rise to near 24.5 feet by Tuesday afternoon. 
  additional rises are possible thereafter.
* Impact:  At 24.0 feet...Initial flooding upstream.
* Impact:  At 23.5 feet...Minor agricultural land begins to flood.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     06/26  06/27  06/28  06/29  06/30

Cuivre River
  Old Monroe      24.0   21.70       22.3   23.0   23.6   24.0   24.2


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$
540 
WGUS83 KLSX 260114
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
814 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014

...The flood warning continues for the following river in 
Missouri...

 
  Cuivre River 

	at Old Monroe 


.This Flood Warning is a result of backwater from the Mississippi 
River...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The National Weather Service will monitor this developing situation 
and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC113-270114-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0074.140630T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/OMNM7.1.ER.140630T0000Z.140702T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
814 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cuivre River at Old Monroe
* from Sunday evening until further notice.
* At  1:55 PM Wednesday the stage was 21.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast:  The river will rise above flood stage by Sunday evening 
  and continue to rise to near 24.5 feet by Tuesday evening.
* Impact:  At 24.5 feet...Extensive left bank agricultural flooding 
  develops upstream of the gage.  A utility road is flooded along the
  Old Monroe levee along the left bank upstream of the gage.
* Impact:  At 24.0 feet...Initial flooding upstream.
* Impact:  At 23.5 feet...Minor agricultural land begins to flood.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     06/26  06/27  06/28  06/29  06/30

Cuivre River
  Old Monroe      24.0   21.40      22.0   22.7   23.3   23.8   24.2


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$
068 
WGUS83 KLSX 261556
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1056 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

...The flood warning continues for the following river in 
Missouri...
 

  Cuivre River at 

      Old Monroe 
 

.This Flood Warning is a result of backwater effects from the Mississippi 
River...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The National Weather Service will monitor this developing
situation and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts 
change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC113-271556-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0074.140701T1800Z-000000T0000Z/
/OMNM7.1.ER.140701T1800Z.140702T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1056 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cuivre River at Old Monroe
* From Tuesday afternoon until further notice.
* At 8:00 AM Thursday the stage was 21.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast:  The river is forecast rise above flood stage early Tuesday 
  afternoon. Additional rises are possible.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     06/27  06/28  06/29  06/30  07/01

Cuivre River
  Old Monroe      24.0   21.70      22.1   22.7   23.2   23.6   23.9


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$
327 
WGUS83 KLSX 271657
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1157 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

...The flood warning continues for the following river in 
Missouri...

 
  Cuivre River at 

      Old Monroe 


.This Flood Warning is a result of backwater effects from the Mississippi 
River...


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The National Weather Service will monitor this developing
situation and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts 
change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC113-281657-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0074.140702T0600Z-140704T1200Z/
/OMNM7.1.ER.140702T0600Z.140702T0600Z.140703T0000Z.NO/
1157 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cuivre River at Old Monroe
* From late Tuesday night to Thursday July 03.
* At 8:00 AM Thursday the estimated stage was 22.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is forecast to crest near flood stage early 
  Wednesday morning.
* Impact:  At 24.5 feet...Extensive left bank agricultural flooding 
  develops upstream of the gage.  A utility road is flooded along the
  Old Monroe levee along the left bank upstream of the gage.
* Impact:  At 24.0 feet...Initial flooding upstream.
* Impact:  At 23.5 feet...Minor agricultural land begins to flood.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     06/28  06/29  06/30  07/01  07/02

Cuivre River
  Old Monroe      24.0  E22.40      22.8   23.2   23.5   23.8   24.0


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$
570 
WGUS83 KLSX 280212
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
912 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following river in 
Missouri...
 

  Cuivre River 

	at Old Monroe


.This will be the last statement issued regarding this event at 
Old Monroe...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC113-280242-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0074.000000T0000Z-140704T1200Z/
/OMNM7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
912 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Cuivre River at Old Monroe.
* At 12:45 PM Friday the stage was 22.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast:  The river will crest below flood stage at 23.6 feet 
  early Wednesday morning.
* Impact:  At 24.5 feet...Extensive left bank agricultural flooding 
  develops upstream of the gage.  A utility road is flooded along the
  Old Monroe levee along the left bank upstream of the gage.
* Impact:  At 24.0 feet...Initial flooding upstream.
* Impact:  At 23.5 feet...Minor agricultural land begins to flood.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     06/28  06/29  06/30  07/01  07/02

Cuivre River
  Old Monroe      24.0   22.30      22.7   23.0   23.2   23.4   23.6


&&


LAT...LON 3875 9063 3879 9066 3883 9063 3882 9061
      3876 9062                       



$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Jun 22, 6:58 PM CDT, 1 hour 53 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 22, 6:58 PM CDT, 1 hour 53 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
658 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2014

A nearly stationary front was laid out near the MS river this
afternoon and is acting as the primary focus for TSRA development.
Another source for TSRA development is a MCV located along the MO-IA
border north of Kansas City that is headed east and has a tail of
TSRA extending south to near the Kansas City area thanks to a
surface outflow boundary.  Otherwise, a typical partly cloudy summer
day in most areas with temps pushing 90--unless you've seen rain,
like Farmington sitting at 68.

The quasi-stationary front is expected to weaken in identity tonight
as well as push northeast as a warm front.  The bottom line for this
will be dissipation of the TSRA during the evening with loss of
heating and weakening of moisture convergence.  One thing that may
prolong this, like last night, is if individual cells can merge
together enough to form a more coherent structure.  If that happens,
storms and their intensity will likely last towards midnight.

The MCV along the MO-IA border is expected to move into central IL
by late this evening, with TSRA likely during that time over the
northern CWA, around Quincy.  Some breaks are expected late this
evening and a part overnight.

One final source for rain will be a shortwave TROF that will
strengthen over the central Plains tonight and will extend its
influence towards central MO by sunrise.  This should lead to
increasing PoPs very late tonight in central MO and perhaps back
into northeast MO and west-central IL.

Min temps are close to persistence/MOS, which has verified well the
past few days.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2014

The current pattern we are in will continue relatively unaltered
through late Thursday, with a flat west-east mid-level flow and
periodic effects from upper level disturbances or MCVs.  This will
continue the unsettled wx and TSRA chances thru much of this period,
only being limited when available moisture becomes a factor, or
enhanced when a clear focus can be seen.

Strong chances for SHRA/TSRA are still expected on Monday,
especially afternoon, and Monday night with a more significant
shortwave TROF that will pass into a convectively favorable
atmosphere--and maintained likely PoPs as a result.

Much of Tuesday and Wednesday look to be a couple of dry days for
most areas, provided the 12z GFS is not correct with its much
stronger and slower depiction of the shortwave and associated
surface wave.  Daytime max temps should be in the 80s these days.

Rain chances could return for a widespread area on Thursday with
some models depicting the return of rich and deep moisture and
another upper level shortwave.

A deep and amplified upper TROF is then expected to dig into the
western CONUS for the end of the week, more consistently depicted by
the EC.  This is expected to result in temps returning closer to the
low 90s for daytime maxes with reduced PoPs.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2014

It appears convection threat this evening will primarily be
driven by remnants of outflow boundaries. Most intense convection
over the next few hours will likely tied to outflow from late
afternoon convection that tracked across ne MO and west central
IL, and it appears that main axis will be focused in an W-E
corridor from near MBY to near PPQ. Give the intensity of storms
near MBY think outflow will be trying to push a bit further S, and
in addition outflow from early afternoon STL convection is also
showing up over Montgomery CO on 88D imagery and continues to work west.
These two features should bring a small threat to mid MO/COU into
the early evening hours since the airmass here remains quite
unstable and has not been impacted by earlier convection. Meanwhile...rain-
cooled airmass from afternoon storms and distance from aforementioned
outflow boundaires should keep TSRA threat fairly well removed
from STL metro through 06z. Don't have a good feel for evolution
of storms past 06z, and have gone with a very broad-brush approach
for the predawn hours and into Monday, trying to indicate a
general uptick in convection with diurnal heating in the late
morning and afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL: Storm threat is expected to remain north and
west of STL based on above reasoning, so only expecting mid and
high level clouds overnight and into Monday morning.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 22, 4:00 PM CDT, 4 hours 51 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-231200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH LESSER CHANCES FURTHER
SOUTH FOR LATER TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

TES

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 22, 5:55 PM CDT, 2 hours 56 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
555 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

MOZ026-034-222345-
MONROE MO-SHELBY MO-
555 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN SHELBY AND NORTHWESTERN
MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 554 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF CAIRO...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF
MOBERLY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  SHELBINA...
  PARIS...
  WOODLAWN...
  MADISON...
  MAUD...
  GRANVILLE...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

GKS
Special weather statement, Jun 22, 6:14 PM CDT, 2 hours 37 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
614 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

ILZ095-097-230000-
ADAMS IL-PIKE IL-
614 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN ADAMS AND WESTERN PIKE
COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 610 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FALL CREEK...OR NEAR HANNIBAL...MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  PAYSON...
  BARRY...
  BEVERLY...

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT...
INTERSTATE 172 NEAR EXIT 2.
INTERSTATE 72 FROM EXIT 4 TO EXIT 20.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

GKS
Local storm report, Jun 22, 6:36 PM CDT, 2 hours 15 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
636 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 PM     HEAVY RAIN       HANNIBAL                39.71N  91.38W
06/22/2014  M1.75 INCH       MARION             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL SINCE 12 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

CARNEY
Special weather statement, Jun 22, 6:45 PM CDT, 2 hours 6 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
645 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

ILZ097-MOZ035-036-230030-
PIKE MO-PIKE IL-RALLS MO-
645 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PIKE COUNTY IN WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND EASTERN RALLS AND NORTHWESTERN PIKE COUNTIES
IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 642 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FRANKFORD...OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF HANNIBAL...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ATLAS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

GKS
Special weather statement, Jun 22, 6:55 PM CDT, 1 hour 56 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
655 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

MOZ035-036-042-230045-
AUDRAIN MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-
655 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN AUDRAIN COUNTY IN
CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND RALLS AND NORTHWESTERN PIKE COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST MISSOURI UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 653 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LADDONIA...OR 9 MILES WEST OF VANDALIA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  VANDALIA...
  FARBER...
  PERRY...
  CURRYVILLE...
  CENTER...
  SPENCERBURG...
  FRANKFORD...
  NEW LONDON...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

GKS
Special weather statement, Jun 22, 7:30 PM CDT, 1 hour 21 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
730 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

ILZ097-MOZ036-052-230115-
LINCOLN MO-PIKE MO-PIKE IL-
730 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PIKE COUNTY IN WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL
MISSOURI...AND CENTRAL PIKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI UNTIL 815 PM
CDT...

AT 729 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BOWLING GREEN...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BOWLING GREEN...
  LOUISIANA...
  PIKE...
  EOLIA...
  PLEASANT HILL...
  CLARKSVILLE...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

GKS

The office that day

Everything else NWS St. Louis, MO issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 22, 7:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXPike, Ralls24 min
Jun 22, 7:09 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryLSXMonroe6 hr
Jun 22, 9:57 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningLSXSaint Charles31 days
Jun 23, 3:40 PM CDTFlash Flood WatchLSXCrawford, Franklin, Gasconade, Iron, Jefferson, Madison and 8 more16 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Missouri, 2014Every river flood warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.