Alert archive / Missouri / River Flood Warnings in 2014

River Flood Warning 138, NWS St. Louis, MO

October 14, 2014Gasconade County, Montgomery County, Missouri

NWS St. Louis, MO issued this river flood warning at Oct 14, 2014, 10:17 AM CDT for Gasconade County, Montgomery County, Missouri. It took effect at Oct 16, 2014, 12:12 AM CDT. It was in force for 7 days.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 14, 2014, 10:17 AM CDT (15:17 UTC)
In effect from: Oct 16, 2014, 12:12 AM CDT
Expired: Oct 23, 2014, 4:49 AM CDT
In force: 7 days
Issued by: NWS St. Louis, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: Minor

Counties Gasconade County, MO, Montgomery County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 78 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

674 
WGUS43 KLSX 141517
FLWLSX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1017 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a flood 
warning for the following rivers in Missouri... 

        
             Missouri River near
                    ...Chamois
                    ...Gasconade
                    ...Hermann
  

.This Flood Warning is a result of up to 2 inches of rain and isolated
heavier amounts in the past 24 hours...


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


The National Weather Service will continue to monitor this situation and
issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC027-151-151517-
/O.NEW.KLSX.FL.W.0137.141016T1200Z-141020T1500Z/
/CMSM7.1.ER.141016T1200Z.141017T0600Z.141019T0300Z.NO/
1017 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014

The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  the Missouri River near Chamois.
* At 7 AM Tuesday the stage was 12.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast: The River will crest near 18.1 feet by Friday morning.
  The river will fall below flood stage late evening Saturday.
* Impact: At 17.0 feet...Lower lying bottom land begins to flood.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/15  10/16  10/17  10/18  10/19

Missouri River
  Chamois         17.0   12.00      13.3   17.0   18.0   17.7   16.3


&&


LAT...LON 3864 9198 3855 9192 3868 9164 3873 9164
      3871 9185                       



$$

MOC073-139-151517-
/O.NEW.KLSX.FL.W.0138.141016T0949Z-000000T0000Z/
/GSCM7.1.ER.141016T0949Z.141017T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1017 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014

The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  the Missouri River at Gasconade.
* At 7am the stage was estimated at 17.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast: The river will crest near 24.2 feet Friday morning.
* Impact:  At 24.5 feet...Southern portions of Old Rock Road and 
  Twisters Road south of Rhineland begin flooding near this height.
* Impact:  At 23.5 feet...The southern end of School House Road south 
  of Rhineland begins flooding near this height.
* Impact:  At 22.4 feet...Gasconade Park boat ramp...BBQ grills...and 
  parking area begins flooding near this height.
* Impact:  At 22.0 feet...Minor flooding of cropland begins.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/15  10/16  10/17  10/18  10/19

Missouri River
  Gasconade       22.0  E17.20      19.2   22.4   24.2   24.0   22.8


&&


LAT...LON 3873 9164 3868 9164 3866 9156 3869 9150
      3872 9150                       



$$

MOC073-139-151517-
/O.NEW.KLSX.FL.W.0139.141016T2024Z-141020T0130Z/
/HRNM7.1.ER.141016T2024Z.141017T1200Z.141019T0130Z.NO/
1017 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014

The National Weather Service in St. Louis has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  the Missouri River at Hermann.
* At 9:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 16.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast: The River will crest near 21.6 feet Friday morning.
  The river will fall below flood stage by Saturday evening.
* Impact: At 21.0 feet...Minor flooding of cropland begins...
  particularly just north of the Highway 19 bridge along the Loutre River.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/15  10/16  10/17  10/18  10/19

Missouri River
  Hermann         21.0   16.24      17.5   20.0   21.6   21.4   20.3


&&


LAT...LON 3872 9150 3869 9150 3861 9123 3866 9119
      3875 9136                       



$$

7 follow-up statements

583 
WGUS83 KLSX 150206
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
906 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Missouri...


  Missouri River

    near Chamois
    at Gasconade
    at Hermann


.This Flood Warning is a result of heavy rainfall from yesterday...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The National Weather Service will continue to monitor this situation
and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC027-151-160206-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0137.141016T0712Z-141019T0000Z/
/CMSM7.1.ER.141016T0712Z.141016T1800Z.141017T1200Z.NO/
906 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River near Chamois
* from Wednesday night to Friday.
* The latest estimated stage is 13.2 feet
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast: The river is forecast to rise above flood stage Wednesday 
  night, crest near 17.6 feet Thursday afternoon and fall below flood 
  stage Friday morning.
* Impact:  At 17.0 feet...Flood Stage:  Lower lying bottom land 
  begins to flood.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/15  10/16  10/17  10/18  10/19

Missouri River
  Chamois         17.0   E13.2     14.0   17.4   17.0   16.4   14.7

&&

LAT...LON 3864 9198 3855 9192 3868 9164 3873 9164 3871 9185                       

$$

MOC073-139-160206-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0138.141016T0320Z-141020T1330Z/
/GSCM7.1.ER.141016T0320Z.141017T0000Z.141019T0130Z.NO/
906 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River at Gasconade
* from Wednesday evening to Saturday night.
* The latest estimated stage is 18.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast: The river is forecast to rise above flood stage tomorrow 
  evening, crest near 23.7 feet Thursday evening and fall below flood 
  stage Saturday evening.
* Impact:  At 23.5 feet...The southern end of School House Road south 
  of Rhineland begins flooding near this height.
* Impact:  At 22.4 feet...Gasconade Park boat ramp...BBQ grills...and 
  parking area begins flooding near this height.
* Impact:  At 22.0 feet...Minor flooding of cropland begins.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/15  10/16  10/17  10/18  10/19

Missouri River
  Gasconade       22.0    E18.6     19.8   23.1   23.4   22.6   21.2

&&

LAT...LON 3873 9164 3868 9164 3866 9156 3869 9150 3872 9150                       

$$

MOC073-139-160206-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0139.141016T1800Z-141018T0900Z/
/HRNM7.1.ER.141016T1800Z.141017T0000Z.141017T0900Z.NO/
906 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River at Hermann
* from Thursday afternoon to Friday morning
* At 8:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 16.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast: The river is forecast to crest near flood stage Thursday 
  evening.
* Impact:  At 21.0 feet...Minor flooding of cropland begins...
  particularly just north of the Highway 19 bridge along the Loutre 
  River.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/15  10/16  10/17  10/18  10/19

Missouri River
  Hermann         21.0   16.77      17.7   20.6   20.9   20.2   18.9

&&

LAT...LON 3872 9150 3869 9150 3861 9123 3866 9119 3875 9136                       

$$

977 
WGUS83 KLSX 151545
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1045 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Missouri...
 
  

                Missouri River near
                       ...Chamois
                       ...Gasconade
                       ...Hermann 



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


The National Weather Service will continue to monitor this situation and
issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC027-151-161545-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0137.141016T0925Z-141019T1030Z/
/CMSM7.1.ER.141016T0925Z.141017T0000Z.141017T2230Z.NO/
1045 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River near Chamois.
* At 7 AM Wednesday the stage was 14.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast: The river will crest near 17.8 feet by tomorrow evening.
  The river will fall below flood stage by Friday afternoon.
* Impact:  At 17.0 feet...Lower lying bottom land begins to flood.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/16  10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20

Missouri River
  Chamois         17.0   14.00      17.3   17.5   16.4   14.1   12.7


&&


LAT...LON 3864 9198 3855 9192 3868 9164 3873 9164
      3871 9185                       



$$

MOC073-139-161544-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0138.141016T0520Z-141020T1047Z/
/GSCM7.1.ER.141016T0520Z.141017T0000Z.141018T2247Z.NO/
1045 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River at Gasconade.
* At 7:27 AM Wednesday the stage was 19.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast: The river will crest near 23.9 feet by Friday morning.
  The river will fall below flood stage by Saturday afternoon.
* Impact:  At 23.5 feet...The southern end of School House Road south 
  of Rhineland begins flooding near this height.
* Impact:  At 22.4 feet...Gasconade Park boat ramp...BBQ grills...and 
  parking area begins flooding near this height.
* Impact:  At 22.0 feet...Minor flooding of cropland begins.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/16  10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20

Missouri River
  Gasconade       22.0   19.90      22.9   23.8   22.8   20.7   18.7


&&


LAT...LON 3873 9164 3868 9164 3866 9156 3869 9150
      3872 9150                       



$$

MOC073-139-161544-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0139.141016T1800Z-141018T2000Z/
/HRNM7.1.ER.141016T1800Z.141017T0000Z.141017T2000Z.NO/
1045 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River at Hermann.
* At 9:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 18.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast: The river will crest near 21.3 feet by Friday morning.
  The river will fall below flood stage by Friday afternoon.
* Impact:  At 21.0 feet...Minor flooding of cropland begins...
  particularly just north of the Highway 19 bridge along the Loutre River.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/16  10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20

Missouri River
  Hermann         21.0   17.98      20.5   21.2   20.3   18.4   16.8


&&


LAT...LON 3872 9150 3869 9150 3861 9123 3866 9119
      3875 9136                       



$$

273 
WGUS83 KLSX 160206
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
906 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Missouri...


  Missouri River

    near Chamois
    at Gasconade
    at Hermann


.This Flood Warning is a result of heavy rainfall from Monday...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The National Weather Service will continue to monitor this situation
and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC027-151-170206-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0137.141016T0925Z-141019T1400Z/
/CMSM7.1.ER.141016T0925Z.141017T0000Z.141018T0200Z.NO/
906 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River near Chamois
* from tonight to Friday night.
* The latest estimated stage is 15.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast: The river is forecast to rise above flood stage early 
  Thursday morning, crest near 17.8 feet tomorrow evening and fall  
  below flood stage Friday evening.
* Impact: At 17.0 feet...Low lying bottom land begins to flood.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/16  10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20

Missouri River
  Chamois         17.0   14.00      17.3   17.5   16.5   13.1   10.3

&&

LAT...LON 3864 9198 3855 9192 3868 9164 3873 9164 3871 9185                       

$$

MOC073-139-170205-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0138.141016T0512Z-141020T1100Z/
/GSCM7.1.ER.141016T0512Z.141017T0000Z.141018T2300Z.NO/
906 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River at Gasconade
* from tonight to Saturday night.
* The latest estimated stage is 21.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast: The river is forecast to rise above flood stage tonight, 
  crest near 23.9 feet Thursday evening and fall below flood stage 
  Saturday evening.
* Impact:  At 23.5 feet...The southern end of School House Road south 
  of Rhineland begins flooding near this height.
* Impact:  At 22.4 feet...Gasconade Park boat ramp...BBQ grills...and 
  parking area begins flooding near this height.
* Impact:  At 22.0 feet...Minor flooding of cropland begins.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/16  10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20

Missouri River
  Gasconade       22.0   19.90      22.9   23.8   22.9   19.9   16.1

&&

LAT...LON 3873 9164 3868 9164 3866 9156 3869 9150 3872 9150                       

$$

MOC073-139-170205-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0139.141016T1630Z-141018T2100Z/
/HRNM7.1.ER.141016T1630Z.141017T0000Z.141017T2100Z.NO/
906 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River at Hermann
* from Thursday morning to Friday evening.
* At 8:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 19.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast: The river is forecast to rise above flood stage late 
  tomorrow morning, crest near 21.3 feet Thursday evening and fall 
  below flood stage Friday afternoon.
* Impact:  At 21.0 feet...Minor flooding of cropland begins...
  particularly just north of the Highway 19 bridge along the Loutre 
  River.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/16  10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20

Missouri River
  Hermann         21.0   19.57      20.7   21.2   20.5   17.8   14.6

&&

LAT...LON 3872 9150 3869 9150 3861 9123 3866 9119 3875 9136                       

$$

999 
WGUS83 KLSX 161529
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1029 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

...The flood warning continues for the following river in 
Missouri...

 
  Missouri River 

      near Chamois

      at Gasconade 

      at Hermann 


.This Flood Warning is a result of heavy rainfall across the basin
over the past week...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The National Weather Service will monitor this developing
situation and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts 
change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC027-151-171529-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0137.000000T0000Z-141019T0800Z/
/CMSM7.1.ER.141016T1300Z.141017T0000Z.141017T2000Z.NO/
1029 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Missouri River near Chamois
* Until late Friday night.
* At 7:00 AM Thursday the stage was 16.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast:  The river is forecast to rise above flood stage later this 
  morning and crest near 17.7 feet late tonight. 
  The river will fall below flood stage by tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact:  At 17.0 feet...Flood Stage:  Lower lying bottom land begins
  to flood.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21

Missouri River
  Chamois         17.0   16.90      17.5   16.0   12.8   10.0    9.2


&&


LAT...LON 3864 9198 3855 9192 3868 9164 3873 9164
      3871 9185                       



$$

MOC073-139-171528-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0138.000000T0000Z-141020T0600Z/
/GSCM7.1.ER.141016T0715Z.141017T0600Z.141018T1800Z.NO/
1029 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Missouri River at Gasconade
* Until late Saturday night.
* At 7:27 AM Wednesday the stage was 19.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast:  The river is forecast to crest near 23.8 feet late tonight. 
* Impact:  At 23.5 feet...The southern end of School House Road south 
  of Rhineland begins flooding near this height.
* Impact:  At 22.4 feet...Gasconade Park boat ramp...BBQ grills...and 
  parking area begins flooding near this height.
* Impact:  At 22.0 feet...Minor flooding of cropland begins.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21

Missouri River
  Gasconade       22.0   19.90      23.8   22.5   19.6   15.8   14.2


&&


LAT...LON 3873 9164 3868 9164 3866 9156 3869 9150
      3872 9150                       



$$

MOC073-139-171528-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0139.141016T1518Z-141018T0600Z/
/HRNM7.1.ER.141016T1404Z.141016T1430Z.141017T0600Z.NO/
1029 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Missouri River at Hermann
* From this morning to late tonight.
* At 9:30 AM Thursday the stage was 21.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast:  The river is currently cresting near 21.1 feet and is forecast
  to fall back below flood stage late tonight.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21

Missouri River
  Hermann         21.0   21.10      20.8   19.8   17.5   14.4   13.1


&&


LAT...LON 3872 9150 3869 9150 3861 9123 3866 9119
      3875 9136                       



$$

243 
WGUS83 KLSX 170241
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
941 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Missouri...
 
  Missouri River near Chamois and at Gasconade 

.This flood warning is due to heavy rain across the basin during the
past week...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC027-151-180241-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0137.000000T0000Z-141018T1312Z/
/CMSM7.1.ER.141016T1800Z.141017T0000Z.141017T0112Z.NO/
941 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River near Chamois
* until Friday.  
* The latest stage was estimated at 17.1 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast: The river is past crest and will fall below flood stage
  overnight. 
* Impact:  At 17.0 feet...Flood Stage:  Lower lying bottom land
  begins to flood.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21

Missouri River
  Chamois         17.0  E17.10      16.1   14.4   12.1    9.5    9.0


&&


LAT...LON 3864 9198 3855 9192 3868 9164 3873 9164
      3871 9185                       



$$

MOC073-139-180240-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0138.000000T0000Z-141019T0900Z/
/GSCM7.1.ER.141016T1543Z.141017T0600Z.141017T2100Z.NO/
941 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River at Gasconade
* until Friday night.
* The latest estimated stage was 23.4 feet. 
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring. 
* Forecast: The river is past crest and will fall below flood stage
  tomorrow evening.   
* Impact:  At 22.4 feet...Gasconade Park boat ramp...BBQ grills...and 
  parking area begins flooding near this height.


&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/17  10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21

Missouri River
  Gasconade       22.0   E23.4      22.7   20.9   18.3   15.2   13.8


&&


LAT...LON 3873 9164 3868 9164 3866 9156 3869 9150
      3872 9150                       



$$

192 
WGUS83 KLSX 171455
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
955 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Missouri...


  Missouri River at Gasconade


.This Flood Warning is a result of heavy rainfall from earlier this
week...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The National Weather Service will continue to monitor this situation
and issue follow up statements as conditions or forecasts change.

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC073-139-181455-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FL.W.0138.000000T0000Z-141019T1200Z/
/GSCM7.1.ER.141017T0742Z.141017T1800Z.141018T0000Z.NO/
955 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Missouri River at Gasconade
* until this evening.
* The latest estimated stage is 23.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast: The river is forecast to fall below flood stage this 
  evening and continue falling to near 14 feet by Monday evening.

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

Missouri River
  Gasconade       22.0   19.90      21.0   18.4   15.4   13.9   13.7

&&

LAT...LON 3873 9164 3868 9164 3866 9156 3869 9150 3872 9150                       

$$

704 
WGUS83 KLSX 180220
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
920 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following river in
Missouri...
 
  Missouri River at Gasconade 

.This will be the last statement for this water event...

Safety message:  Never drive cars, trucks, or sport utility vehicles 
through flooded areas.  The water may be too deep to allow for safe 
passage.

This product, along with additional weather and stream information, 
is available at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx.

&&

MOC073-139-180250-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0138.000000T0000Z-141019T1200Z/
/GSCM7.1.ER.141017T0740Z.141017T1554Z.141017T2222Z.NO/
920 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Missouri River at Gasconade.
* The latest estimated stage was 21.9 feet. 
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage earlier this evening. 
* Forecast: The river will continue to fall through this weekend. 

&&
                   Fld   Latest              7 a.m. Forecast
LOCATION           Stg  Obs Stg     10/18  10/19  10/20  10/21  10/22

Missouri River
  Gasconade       22.0   21.90      21.0   18.4   15.4   14.1   13.8


&&


LAT...LON 3873 9164 3868 9164 3866 9156 3869 9150
      3872 9150                       



$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Oct 14, 6:50 AM CDT, 3 hours 27 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 14, 6:50 AM CDT, 3 hours 27 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
650 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2014

At 08z, the center of a well wrapped up and stacked storm system was
located straddling the intersections of IA, MO, and IL.  A surface
cold front extended from this stacked storm center southward thru
the STL metro area and into southeast MO.  The front can be seen
well via radar as well, with a thin strand of rain.  Speaking of
rain, the radar mosaic does not do the coverage justice, with much
of the precipitation too light or too low to be seen over MO, but
radar is picking up a more defined deformation zone in IA.  Based on
observations, including sites that are not reporting rain but do
have visibility reductions (likely due in part to drizzle), looks
like solid light rain coverage across much of western and central
MO.  Not a huge temp drop behind the front, due in part to the well
wrapped up nature of the storm, but enough to get readings into the
low 50s, compared to low 60s ahead.

With the stacked LOW expected to slowly pull east today, this should
coax the deformation zone rain further south into MO, with the light
rain and drizzle extending some distance to the south and east out
ahead of that.  Only needing a mere 0.01" to qualify a PoP, have
categorical PoPs in place for nearly the entire forecast area at
some point today, starting with central and northeast MO early this
morning and expanding this eastward with the movement of the
system.  This echoes well the MOS PoPs and saw little reason to
deviate from.

The cold front is expected to pass thru the remainder of our
southwestern IL counties by late morning.  With this in mind, the
thick low clouds, a fairly steady light rain or drizzle, and some
measure of CAA from passage of cold front will prevent much if any
diurnal temp swing today.  Went below MOS temps in northeast and
central MO where rain and CAA will start early and often and trended
to MOS in our eastern counties of southwestern IL where this will
begin a bit later.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2014

Will continue to have light rain and drizzle tonight, particularly
over the eastern half of the forecast area on the backside of the
slow moving upper level low and associated surface low.  The NAM
model is a little slower and further south with the position and
eastward progression of the upper level and surface low compared to
the GFS and ECMWF models.  Most of the light rain and drizzle should
be across the IL counties of the forecast area on Wednesday as the
upper level and surface low move into the Ohio Valley region.  Below
normal high temperatures can be expected on Wednesday due to the
lack of solar insolation with a persistent low level cloud deck.
Most of the precipitation should shift east of our forecast area
Wednesday night, although there may still be some lingering drizzle
across IL.  Will finally see plenty of sunshine on Thursday which
will send high temperatures to around normal values for mid
October.  A shortwave moving eastward through the northern Plains
and into the Great Lakes region will send a cold front southeastward
through our forecast area Thursday night and Friday morning.  At
this time it appears that moisture will be limited and this should
be a dry frontal passage.  A deepening upper level trough centered
over the Great Lakes region coupled with a surface ridge building
southeastward into MO behind the cold front will lead to cooler
temperatures for the weekend.  The ECMWF model is a little cooler
than the GFS model due to its deeper upper level trough and stronger
surface ridge.  The model solutions diverge later this weekend into
next week with the ECMWF model generating some QPF over our forecast
area mainly Sunday night as strong shortwaves move through the
northern Plains and Great Lakes region and send a cold front
southeastward through our area.  The GFS model is slower in
developing upper level troffing over the Great Lakes region and
keeps surface ridging over most of our area.  It does have some QPF
over the southern portion of our forecast area for Monday.  Due to
these model discrepencies will just include slight chance to chance
pops for Sunday through Monday over parts of our area.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2014

IFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites thru much
of the valid period, with extensive area of low clouds and
visibility reductions in drizzle or light rain. By late tonight,
what should be the back edge of low clouds should make it thru UIN
and COU but probably not in time for STL metro sites. Otherwise,
NW surface winds will prevail thru the period. Winds will take a
bit longer to shift from the NW for STL metro sites, however, due
to wrapped up nature of storm system to the north.

Specifics for KSTL: Should see IFR conditions move in by mid-
morning, either from ceilings or visibility reductions in light
rain or drizzle, and then persist thru tonight. Looks promising to
see at least an improvement to MVFR ceilings on Wednesday, but
will probably maintain at least broken coverage due to diurnal
enhancement. Otherwise, look for a more definitive veering of
winds from SW to NW by this afternoon with NW to then persist for
the rest of the period.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 14, 5:04 AM CDT, 5 hours 13 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
504 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-151015-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
504 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

GKS

In the hours before

Local storm report, Oct 14, 9:32 AM CDT, 45 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
932 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0411 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E KELL                38.49N  88.89W
10/13/2014                   MARION             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BARN ROOF PARTIALLY BLOWN OFF. CARPORT DAMAGED. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

BYRD

The office that day

Everything else NWS St. Louis, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 13, 9:43 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Lewis	4 days
Oct 14, 6:18 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Lewis	71 hr
Oct 14, 10:17 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Callaway, Osage	6 days
Oct 14, 10:17 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Gasconade, Montgomery	5 days
Oct 14, 12:50 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Cole	24 hr
Oct 14, 2:38 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Monroe	47 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Missouri, 2014 Every river flood warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.