Flash Flood Watch 4, NWS St. Louis, MO

669 
WGUS63 KLSX 100010
FFALSX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
710 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

MOZ026-034>036-042-101200-
/O.EXA.KLSX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-140910T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SHELBY MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-AUDRAIN MO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWLING GREEN...MEXICO
710 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI AND 
  NORTHEAST MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN 
  CENTRAL MISSOURI...AUDRAIN MO. IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...MONROE 
  MO...PIKE MO...RALLS MO AND SHELBY MO.

* UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY

* SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED 
  ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT. 
  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIT AND MISS THIS 
  EVENING...AND AFTER A LATE EVENING LULL IT WILL BECOME MORE 
  WIDESPREAD DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. RAINS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES 
  CAN BE EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS. 

* HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR POOR 
  DRAINAGE AREAS...AND ULTIMATELY DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING ON 
  SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS. SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LARGER 
  STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT
IMMINENT IN THE WATCH AREA. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE
AWARE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...ESPECIALLY IF YOU LIVE IN
FLOOD PRONE AREAS. STAY INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION
IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE
THE DANGER OF FLOOD WATERS. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT
QUICKLY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

$$

ILZ095>097-MOZ018-019-027-101200-
/O.CON.KLSX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-140910T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-MARION MO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...QUINCY...HANNIBAL
710 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI...
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
  ADAMS IL...BROWN IL AND PIKE IL. IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...KNOX 
  MO...LEWIS MO AND MARION MO.

* UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY

* SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED 
  ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT. 
  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIT AND MISS THIS 
  EVENING...AND AFTER A LATE EVENING LULL IT WILL BECOME MORE 
  WIDESPREAD DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. RAINS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES 
  CAN BE EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS. 

* HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR POOR 
  DRAINAGE AREAS...AND ULTIMATELY DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING ON 
  SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS. SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LARGER 
  STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT
IMMINENT IN THE WATCH AREA. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE
AWARE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...ESPECIALLY IF YOU LIVE IN
FLOOD PRONE AREAS. STAY INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION
IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE
THE DANGER OF FLOOD WATERS. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT
QUICKLY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

$$

CVKING

583 
WGUS63 KLSX 100830
FFALSX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
330 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

ILZ095>097-MOZ018-019-026-027-034>036-042-101700-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-140910T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-
MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-AUDRAIN MO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...QUINCY...HANNIBAL...BOWLING GREEN...
MEXICO
330 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...ADAMS IL...
  BROWN IL AND PIKE IL. IN MISSOURI...AUDRAIN MO...KNOX MO...
  LEWIS MO...MARION MO...MONROE MO...PIKE MO...RALLS MO AND 
  SHELBY MO.

* UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY

* THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST
  MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL
  RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN
  BE EXPECTED ON TOP OF WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA.

* HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR POOR 
  DRAINAGE AREAS...AND ULTIMATELY DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING ON 
  SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS. SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LARGER 
  STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT
IMMINENT IN THE WATCH AREA. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE
AWARE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...ESPECIALLY IF YOU LIVE IN
FLOOD PRONE AREAS. STAY INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION
IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND TO
ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN
WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

$$

CARNEY

396 
WGUS63 KLSX 101658
FFALSX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1158 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

ILZ095>097-MOZ018-019-026-027-034>036-042-101800-
/O.EXP.KLSX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-140910T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-
MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-AUDRAIN MO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...QUINCY...HANNIBAL...BOWLING GREEN...
MEXICO
1158 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT NOON CDT TODAY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
MISSOURI WILL EXPIRE AT NOON CDT TODAY. NUMEROUS AREAL FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6:00 PM CDT ACROSS THE REGION. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
339 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2014

Overall scenario for tonight should be for scattered storms
continuing along old outflow over northern sections of the CWA
this evening, with hit and miss storms elsewhere dissipating with
loss of heating. Then, main wave of convection that forms over the
mid-Missouri Valley this evening should then roll east, with
southern fringes of the MCS sweeping across northern sections of
CWA primarily during the predawn hours.

Heavy rain threat remains the primary concern for tonight for
northern sections of the CWA.  While main focus for heavy rain and
flash flooding appears to be north of our FA where intense forcing
of the low level jet is forecast, persistently active outflow from
just north of STL metro to near IRK is becoming more of a concern.
With a gradual increase of storms noted in this area over the last
hour or so, and with this uptick expected to continue for several
more hours as AMS continues to destabilize with late day heating, the
outflow should intensify, with additional development then possible
during the evening before southern portion of the expected MCS
pushes into the region during the predawn hours. With this possible
scenario in mind, will be issuing a flash flood watch for areas
along and north of a IRK-PPQ line for tonight. This may be a bit
pesimistic, but with the source air that will be fueling the
storms currently exhibiting MUCAPES of 3000-4000 J/KG over eastern
KS and w MO, along with pwats of over 2 inches, storms will be
very effective rain-makers.

Severe weather threat will also mimic aforementioned convective trends,
with some threat of damaging winds and perhaps hail with the
stronger storms in our north this evening, with an additional wind
threat with the MCS during the overnight hours.

Working on completing forecast package and will issue ASAP.
Complete discussion...including latest long range
thinking...coming up a bit later.

Truett

.&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2014

Scattered convection continues to develop near UIN just northeast
of warm front extending from just north of IRK southeast to just
north of STL. There will likely be more widely scattered
convection this afternoon further south as the atmosphere
destabilizes due to daytime heating which could impact the other
taf sites as well. May include VCTS at the other taf sites with a
tempo group for TSRA in the UIN taf this afternoon. New convective
development is expected tonight as a strong swly low level jet
develops over eastern KS, northwest MO and southwest IA. This will
likely lead to a convective complex which will develop across IA
and drop southeastward into UIN and COU late tonight, then
eventually make it into the St Louis metro area by early morning
as it gradually weakens. S-sely surface winds will continue this
afternoon and tonight, then veer around to a swly direction
Wednesday morning ahead of an approaching cold front.

Specifics for KSTL: There may be isolated to widely scattered
showers/storms late this afternoon as the atmosphere continues to
destabilize due to daytime heating. May include VCTS in the STL
taf late this afternoon. Weakening nocturnal convection will
likely drop southeastward into the STL area Wednesday morning. A
final round of stronger convection should impact STL late
Wednesday afternoon as a strong cold front moves southeastward
through the area. S-sely surface wind can be expected this
afternoon and tonight, then veer around to a swly direction on
Wednesday as a cold front approaches.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday morning FOR Knox MO-Lewis MO-
     Marion MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday morning FOR Adams IL-Brown
     IL-Pike IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
522 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-101200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
522 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY...AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE...PRIMARILY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL
MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DAMAGING WIND IS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE THOUGH LESS LIKELY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER
NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

CARNEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1001 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

ILZ058-059-097-099-091545-
GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-PIKE IL-
1001 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GREENE...NORTHWESTERN MACOUPIN
AND NORTHEASTERN JERSEY COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND
SOUTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS UNTIL 1045 AM
CDT...

AT 959 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF BELLEVIEW...OR 13 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PITTSFIELD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  WHITE HALL...
  ROODHOUSE...
  CARROLLTON...
  ATHENSVILLE...
  GREENFIELD...
  KEMPER...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

GKS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
335 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

ILZ059-099-100-MOZ061-092115-
JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-ST. CHARLES MO-
335 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ST. CHARLES...
WESTERN MADISON...SOUTHERN MACOUPIN AND JERSEY COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM
CDT...

AT 332 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR JERSEYVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  GODFREY...
  ALTON...
  GRANITE CITY...
  WOOD RIVER...
  BETHALTO...
  PONTOON BEACH...
  WEST ALTON...
  BRIGHTON...
  SHIPMAN...
  HARTFORD...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT CONFLUENCE STATE PARK AND HORSESHOE LAKE STATE
PARK.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

GKS