Areal Flood Warning 28, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1032 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1029 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2014

With storms tapering off over western half of forecast area, cancelled
portions of flash flood watch, but kept counties in southwestern
Illinois, northeast of St. Louis metro area. Otherwise, rain to
continue tapering off from west to east as cold front slides through.

Byrd
&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2014

Where we are at now:  a relatively deep upper level TROF dominated
the Plains with one strong disturbance at its base and another
digging TROF further upstream over extreme southeastern Saskatchewan
province in Canada.  Several bands of TSRA have developed out ahead
of the first disturbance in western OK, and are currently tracking
across MO and IL.  The atmosphere here is very moist, especially for
this time of year, with PWs of close to 2 inches.  At the surface
are a pair of fronts:  the cold front extends from near KDSM
southward thru western MO while a warm front extends eastward near
I-70 in MO and IL.  Instability is limited everywhere except in the
warm sector, south of I-70.  Stronger atmospheric dynamics working
in with the first disturbance will aid severe potential in the warm
sector, where there is currently a Severe Tstm Watch until 02z this
evening.

Severe threat still looks reasonable and overlays well where the
Severe Tstm Watch currently is.  Currently anticipate no future need
for adjustment but will continue to monitor.

A lot of rainfall occurred in an axis roughly from central MO and
extended just north of the Saint Louis metro area into central IL
last night and this morning.  Rainfall amounts generally ranged from
2 to 5 inches in this band, but spots have been seen which are
pushing 7 inches.  Another, heavy rainfall area extends
northeastward into west-central IL from central MO with 2 to 5
inches as well.  We expect several additional rounds of TSRA
tonight, especially this evening, but the orientation of the bands
should be more conducive to moving, and not training, which should
isolate the primary flood threat to areas that have already received
a lot of prior rainfall and where much of the new rainfall will go
as runoff.  The Flood Watch area inherited from this morning handled
this well and have only needed to make slight adjustments to it
since then in light of heavy rainfall from this morning:  into Saint
Charles County MO and Madison County IL.  Have also extended in time
the Flood Watch since the heavy rain threat will continue into
tonight, and depending on how well this system wraps up and deepens,
perhaps some areas may see rain almost to sunrise, especially east
of Saint Louis.

This is not to say that flooding will not occur elsewhere in Saint
Louis metro or areas south and east, but the chances are reduced
considering the better ability to absorb new rains.  But rainfall
rates will be high with any TSRA due to the unusually high moisture
content of the column.

MOS min temps look reasonable, with most of the drive of cooler air
not coming until late.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2014

Friday will be in stark contrast to earlier in the week as fall returns
in full force. Combination of low clouds and very strong low-level CAA
behind strong cold front will yield high temperatures 10-25 degrees colder
than today. Highs will struggle to get too much into the 50s over
northwestern sections of the area with warmer locations in southeast
Missouri and southwest Illinois topping out in the mid 60s. With
a strong shortwave diving southeastward amplifying overall longwave
trough and UL divergence associated with left-exit region of jet streak
aloft...also cannot rule out some isolated/scattered showers and do have
sch PoPs for most locations.

Coldest night of this autumn blast still looks to be on Friday
night/Saturday morning. Lows will generally be in the mid to upper
30s areawide. Winds aoa 5 kts should preclude not only frost...but also
what would have likely been a freeze for western portions of the region.
Guidance temperatures looked reasonable and did not deviate too much from
them.

Saturday will be another unseasonably cold early October day as 850-hPa
temperatures will be between 0 and -5C...or about as cold as you can get
around this part of the county this early in the month of October. Forecast
highs are in the 50s areawide.

Warm/moist advection is already expected to begin on Saturday night with
light sfc return flow as well. Leaned toward warmer guidance for this
period regarding temperatures due to the aforementioned items in addition
to increasing cloud cover ahead of an approaching clipper system.
Lows will be around 40 over most areas. Cannot rule out some frost in
sheltered areas if cloud cover is not as great as currently forecast.

Temperature forecasting will continue to be problematic to end the weekend
as aforementioned clipper system tracks southeastward through the area.
Tried to increase gradient with respect to high temperatures during the day
on Sunday. Leaned cool across portions of northeast Missouri and west-central
Illinois and warm further to the south and west...especially for central
and southeast Missouri which should definitely be in the warm sector of the
cyclone.

Monday should be a bit cooler across the area behind the clipper with
another disturbance embedded in northwest flow aloft around periphery
of deeply amplified trough across the eastern CONUS. This clipper-like
system looks to travel a bit more to the south and west than its
predecessor and also looks to have more moisture to work with warranting
chance PoPs. Probably will be an axis of more concentrated rain which
would necessitate likely PoPs...but at this time it is way too early to
pin down track of this system.

Rest of the extended looks fairly tranquil with slowly moderating
temperatures to near normal by Wednesday...to slightly above normal
on Thursday. Next precipitation chance appears to be in the Wednesday
night/Thursday time frame...as return flow/low-level WAA begin.

Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 708 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2014

Showers and storms ahead of cold front to continue moving
northeast across forecast area this evening. Then frontal boundary
to move through KCOU by 02z, KUIN by 03z, and metro area by 07z.
Will see lingering rain behind boundary with IFR/MVFR cigs/vsbys.
By mid morning on Friday cigs to begin to lift and scatter out.
Then by midday, next shortwave to rotate around upper low through
forecast area bringing some scattered showers and mvfr cigs once
again. As for winds, south winds to veer to the southwest then
northwest once front moves through. Winds to pickup and become gusty
from the northwest behind the boundary and remain that way through
Friday afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:
Showers and storms ahead of cold front to continue moving
northeast across forecast area this evening. Then frontal boundary
to move through metro area by 07z. Will see lingering rain behind
boundary with IFR cigs. By 15z Friday cigs to begin to
lift and scatter out. Then by 18z Friday, next shortwave to rotate
around upper low through forecast area bringing some scattered
showers and mvfr cigs once again. As for winds, south winds to
veer to the southwest then northwest once front moves through. Winds to
pickup and become gusty from the northwest behind the boundary and
remain that way through 01z Saturday.

Byrd

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 6 AM CDT Friday FOR Calhoun IL-Greene IL-
     Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Montgomery IL.

&&

WFO LSX

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
709 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND GST     BOURBON                 38.15N  91.25W
10/02/2014  E45 MPH          CRAWFORD           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR REPORTED ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS OF
            45 MPH AND AREAS TO THE EAST OF BOURBON MO. ALSO NICKEL
            SIZE HAIL OCCURRED IN BOURBON MIISSOURI.

&&

FUCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
800 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0759 PM     HEAVY RAIN       12 N MEXICO             39.34N  91.87W
10/02/2014  M3.50 INCH       MONROE             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL

&&

TRUETT

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