Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
934 PM PST WED FEB 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN A LULL BEFORE THE NEXT STORM ARRIVES. THE SECOND
STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...FLASH FLOODING WITH
MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS...AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS AND SMALL
TORNADOES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...

THE FIRST OF TWO STORMS IS MOVING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. LIGHT
TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL IS OCCURRING LATE THIS
EVENING...AND RAIN SHOULD BECOME PREDIMINANTLY MODERATE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. RAINFALL RATES HAVE MOSTLY RANGED AROUND A TENTH
OF AN INCH PER HOUR WITH SOME LOCAL ONE-QUARTER INCH RATES. WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THE STORM...RAIN TOTALS HAVE BEEN MUCH
HIGHER ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES AS EXPECTED. WHILE
MOST AREAS HAVE SEEN RAIN BETWEEN A TENTH OF AN INCH TO A QUARTER
INCH THIS EVENING SO FAR...RAINFALL TOTAL ALONG THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE AND WESTERN SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY ARE RANGE BETWEE A THIRD
TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH. RAIN TOTALS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADD UP
LATE TONIGHT.

HEADLINES LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS
ADDED FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR FOR MOST LOCATIONS
IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON
FRIDAY...BUT STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN THE MORNING FOR THE FOOTHILL LOCATIONS SUCH AS LAKE
PALMDALE AND POPPY PARK.

FOR THE SECOND STORM...THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS STILL SEEM ON
FOR THIS TIME. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTROMS WERE BUMPED UP CHANCE
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SNOW LEVELS WERE DROPPED TO 5500 FEET AS 700 MB
TEMPERATURES DROP TO -7 DEGREES CELSIUS. SOME CONCERN EXISTS THAT
CONVECTIVE DOWNBURSTS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER THE SNOW LEVEL DOWN TO
5000 FEET OR SO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...LOOKS LIKE SOME DECENT CLEARING ACROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY AS THE FIRST STORM MOVES THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY AND
THE SECOND STORM HAS SLOWED A BIT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DRAINAGE AND MAY HELP KEEP URBAN FLOODING ISSUES REDUCED WHEN THE
SECOND STORM ARRIVES.

LONG TERM...THE SECOND STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
REGION BY LATE ON THURSDAY AND IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR VERY WET.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE ONE TO THREE INCHES FOR
MOST AREAS WITH THREE TO SIX INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS AND UP TO EIGHT INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED
MOUNTAINS... WHICH AGAIN INCLUDES THE VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS BUT
ALSO WILL INCLUDE THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS. THE SAN
GABRIEL RANGE IN LOS ANGELES COUNTY COULD BE THE BIG WINNER FOR
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER A BIT BUT REMAIN RELATIVELY
HIGH SO MOST OF WHAT FALLS WILL BE LIQUID AND IT NOW APPEARS THAT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LINGER LONGER WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE
PERPENDICULAR FLOW NEEDED FOR HEAVY RAIN.

IN ADDITION... THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK PARTICULARLY GOOD FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  THE BEST CONDITIONS ARE OFF THE COAST OF
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WHICH MAKES IT MOST LIKELY THAT
INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF WATERSPOUTS
BUT WITH THE GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW THESE SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE FAIRLY
READILY.  AM NOT EXPECTING STRONG TORNADOES BUT WITH THESE
CONDITIONS WEAK TORNADOES PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST ARE POSSIBLE.

THE SECOND STORM IS MOVING MORE SLUGGISHLY AND IS INCREASINGLY
LOOKING LIKE IT WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AT LEAST IN LOS ANGELES
COUNTY.  THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW BUT
STILL WILL HAVE MOST AS LIQUID.  THIS WILL MAKE THE BURN AREAS IN
LOS ANGELES COUNTY ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS AND
THE COLBY BURN IN GLENDORA IS AN AREA OF CONCERN.  IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS PUSH THAT FAR INTO THE AREA THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT.

WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE IN BY MONDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
BRINGING DRY WEATHER BACK TO THE REGION.  CONDITIONS REMAIN
UNSTABLE... THOUGH... AND MORE WEATHER MAY BE ON TAP FOR LATER IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...27/0530Z.

OVERALL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. DURING THIS PERIOD...CONFIDENCE IN CIG/VSBY FORECASTS IS
LOW FOR ALL SITES AS CONDS WILL BE BOUNCING AROUND FROM CATEGORY TO
CATEGORY. FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE IN GENERALLY VFR CIGS...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS LINGERING
ACROSS INLAND TAF SITES.

KLAX...OVERALL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS
WILL BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN IFR AND VFR LEVELS THROUGH MID-MORNING
THURSDAY...RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. FOR LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS DEVELOPING.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 16Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS WILL
BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGH MID-MORNING THURSDAY. THERE IS A
40% CHANCE THAT VFR CONDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WINTER STORM WATCH (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
STORM WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...HALL/KJ
AVIATION...RAT
SYNOPSIS...B/HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
934 PM PST WED FEB 26 2014

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-271400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
934 PM PST WED FEB 26 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

WFO LOX PLANS TO DISCONTINUE THIS PRODUCT IN 2014.
PLEASE DIRECT ANY COMMENTS TO ERIC BOLDT AT 805-988-6623.

.DAY ONE... TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE FIRST OF TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS FIRST STORM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. RAIN...POSSIBLE HEAVY...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS SOUTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE
WINDY ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF ALL THE COUNTIES. HIGH SURF
AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO IMPACT WEST FACING BEACHES NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION.

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH SURF ADVISORY.........SEE WHUS46 KLOX - CFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK......SEE FZUS56 KLOX - SRFLOX FOR DETAILS *

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT..SEE WWUS86 KLOX - SPSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE WEATHER ON THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
MORE POWERFUL STORMS AIMS FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES ALONG THE
COAST AND VALLEYS...UP TO 3-6 INCHES FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS. THERE COULD BE LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 8 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH
FACING FAVORED MOUNTAINS AS WELL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE WILL
BE CONCERN FOR THE RECENT BURN AREAS...INCLUDING THE COLBY BURN AREA
IN GLENDORA AND AZUSA...THE MADRE BURN AREA IN AZUSA...THE MADISON
BURN AREA IN ARCADIA...AND THE SPRINGS BURN AREA IN SOUTHEASTERN
VENTURA COUNTY. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FIRST
STORM SYSTEM MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS... ANTELOPE VALLEY...AND THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINTER
STORM CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES
WITH THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM. HIGH SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL
IMPACT AREA WEST FACING BEACHES THROUGH SUNDAY. ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE OR STORM FORCE WIND
GUSTS...AS WELL AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND WATERSPOUTS.

* HIGH WIND WATCH............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WINTER STORM WATCH.........SEE WWUS46 KLOX - WSWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH SURF ADVISORY.........SEE WHUS46 KLOX - CFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK......SEE FZUS56 KLOX - SRFLOX FOR DETAILS *

* MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE FZUS76 KLOX - MWSLOX FOR DETAILS *

* STORM WATCH..............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WATCH...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT..SEE WWUS86 KLOX - SPSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

HALL