Small Craft Advisory 28, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1045 PM PDT SAT MAR 15 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING OFFSHORE WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN NEXT WEEK FOR A COOLING TREND
IN ALL AREAS.  DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...
VERY WARM DAY ACROSS MANY PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHLAND TODAY...WITH MANY
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 80S. A RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 86 DEGREES WAS OBSERVED AT SANTA MARIA
AIRPORT...BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 84 DEGREES SET IN 1939.
THE WARM TEMPERATURES ARE BEING GENERATED BY A STRENGTHENING UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE.

THE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THAT IMPACTED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLIER TODAY HAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISHED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...HOWEVER LOCALLY BREEZY OFFSHORE CONDITIONS REMAIN IN WIND
FAVORED LOCATIONS TONIGHT. THE CONTINUED OFFSHORE INFLUENCE WILL
KEEP MOST AREAS CLEAR TONIGHT. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE CENTRAL
COAST...WHERE A SURGE OF LOW CLOUDS IS STREAMING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. PATCHY DENSE FOG ALREADY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE PORTIONS OF THE SLO COUNTY COAST THIS EVENING...AND COULD
EXTEND INTO COASTAL PORTIONS OF WESTERN SBA COUNTY. THE LOW CLOUDS
AND DENSE FOG SHOULD SCOUR OUT LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS A BIT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COAST.

IN EVENING UPDATE...HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES FOR THE FOOTHILLS
AND LOWER MOUNTAINS AS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO REINFORCE A VERY
WARM AND DRY AIR MASS FOR THOSE AREAS. IN FACT...WARMEST FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
TONIGHT. LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON
SUNDAY MORNING (-4 MB) AS COMPARED TO THIS MORNING...HOWEVER UPPER
LEVEL WIND SUPPORT IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WHICH WILL KEEP OFFSHORE
WINDS LIGHTER THAN TODAY. ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH CURRENT PROJECTED TEMPERATURES
LOOKING ON TRACK. WARMEST VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY CLIMB TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES. COASTAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKIER AS OFFSHORE
INFLUENCE WILL ALLOW FOR A RAPID WARMUP IN THE MORNING...BUT AN
EARLIER AND MORE PRONOUNCED SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY COOL THINGS DOWN
IN THE AFTERNOON.

PLEASE REFER TO FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

THERE SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING IN ALL AREAS ON MONDAY AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS...WITH THE MOST COOLING (POSSIBLY 10 TO
15 DEGREES) ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AS ONSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
MINOR CHANGES IN THE UPPER PATTERN ON WED...BUT SOME INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW COULD BRING SOME COOLING TO AREAS W OF THE MTNS. A
BROAD TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG OR JUST OFF THE WEST COAST THU
THROUGH FRI...BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING TO THE REGION...WITH
MAX TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR OR POSSIBLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. EXPECT NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD W OF
THE MTNS WED NIGHT THRU FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...16/0545Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY LIFR TO
VLIFR CONDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDS BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...15/2100Z.
GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
AND THE WEST PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL FOR MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS MONDAY
MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST WHILE A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INLAND. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR SHORE AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INLAND AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR SHORE. THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TUESDAY BUT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST.
THE SEAS GENERATED BY THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDS
ALONG WEST AND NORTHWEST FACING SHORES AND IN EXPOSED BAYS AND
INLETS OF THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS AS WELL AS SANTA BARBARA AND
SAN NICOLAS ISLANDS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME TWO FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL EVENTS WILL ARRIVE. A
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC ON
WEDNESDAY WITHIN A FETCH ORIENTED 300-310 RELATIVE TO SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA HAD GENERATED SEAS OVER 30 FEET. THE SWELLS WILL DECAY IN
ROUTE AND ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL COAST SUNDAY. THE
SURF WILL BE THE SMALLER OF THE TWO EVENTS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED 2000 MILES NORTHWEST OF POINT CONCEPTION ON FRIDAY HAD
GENERATING SEAS OVER 40 FEET. THE FETCH AREA WAS ORIENTED RELATIVE
TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA BETWEEN 290-300 DEGREES. THE SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ARRIVING SUNDAY AND BUILD THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
BOTH EVENTS WILL LIKELY GENERATE STRONG RIP CURRENTS BUT ON MONDAY
THE RIP CURRENTS WILL BE FREQUENT AND WIDESPREAD FROM SLO TO LA
COUNTIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER FROM 15/0320Z...
OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED TONIGHT...BUT LOCALLY BREEZY OFFSHORE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. THIS
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND LOWER MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. THE HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL BE
VERY POOR IN THESE AREAS...WITH SOME AREAS REMAINING BELOW 20
PERCENT. MANY INLAND AREAS WILL SEE HUMIDITIES FALL TO BETWEEN 7 AND
12 PERCENT ON SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF LOCALLY BREEZY OFFSHORE
WINDS WITH VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER INTO SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. AN EARLIER AND MORE PRONOUNCED SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...OVERSPREADING THE VALLEYS BETWEEN 2 AND 5 PM. AS A
RESULT...A PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS...RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/JLD
MARINE...30
FIRE...GOMBERG
AVIATION...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...JLD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
313 PM PDT SAT MAR 15 2014

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-161300-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
313 PM PDT SAT MAR 15 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY AND TONIGHT

GUSTY WINDS AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE HEIGHTENED FIRE
DANGER TODAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HIGH SURF WILL LIKELY AFFECT CENTRAL COAST BEACHES SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH SURF MAY AFFECT THE BEACHES OF VENTURA SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CAUSE HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

* HIGH SURF ADVISORY.........SEE WHUS46 KLOX - CFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WATCH...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

JLD