Small Craft Advisory 18, NWS Los Angeles, CA

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
600 AM PST TUE FEB 25 2014

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-261400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
600 AM PST TUE FEB 25 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

WFO LOX PLANS TO DISCONTINUE THIS PRODUCT IN 2014.
PLEASE DIRECT ANY COMMENTS TO ERIC BOLDT AT 805-988-6623.

.DAY ONE... TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE FIRST OF TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FIRST AND LESS IMPACTFUL STORM OF THE
TWO WILL BRING AROUND 1/2 INCH IN THE NORTH TO LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS TO THE SOUTH. HIGH SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL ALSO IMPACT AREA WEST FACING BEACHES. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF LULL IN THE WEATHER ON THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER MORE POWERFUL
STORMS AIMS FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAINFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE COAST AND
VALLEYS...UP TO 2-4 INCHES FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. THERE
COULD BE LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 6 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH FACING FAVORED
MOUNTAINS AS WELL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IF MODELS STAY CONSISTENT
THROUGH THE WEEK...THERE WILL BE IMPACTS FOR THE RECENT BURN
AREAS...INCLUDING THE COLBY BURN AREAS IN GLENDORA AND AZUSA AS WELL
AS THE SPRINGS BURN AREA BETWEEN CAMARILLO AND THE PCH.

* HIGH SURF ADVISORY.........SEE WHUS46 KLOX - CFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT..SEE WWUS86 KLOX - SPSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ASR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
249 PM PST TUE FEB 25 2014

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-261400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
249 PM PST TUE FEB 25 2014

...STORMY WEATHER WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...

A DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A COUPLE OF WINTER STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. THESE TWO STORMS WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL...HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS.

THE FIRST STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN WILL BEGIN ACROSS SAN LUIS OBISPO
AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL SPREAD
SOUTH AND EAST INTO VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WEDNESDAY
EVENING BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
BE BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO
1.50 INCHES POSSIBLE IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH...ABOVE 7500 FEET DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
THEN DROPPING TO AROUND 6500 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION...GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE SECOND STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY BE THE STRONGEST STORM
THE AREA HAS EXPERIENCED IN ABOUT THREE YEARS. MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREAD QUICKLY INTO VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS THEN LIKELY FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED WITH AN UNSTABLE
AIR MASS...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST
OF THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF INTENSE RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM COULD BE VERY IMPRESSIVE. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS
WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS...WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTH FACING SLOPES.

SNOW LEVELS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 7000 FEET...BUT WILL
DROP DOWN TO AROUND 5000 TO 5500 FEET BY SATURDAY. THE MOUNTAINS
COULD RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
WINTER STORM CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS.

ONE AREA OF SPECIAL CONCERN WITH THE SECOND STORM WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING WITH MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN AND
AROUND RECENT BURN AREAS...INCLUDING THE COLBY...MADISON...
POWERHOUSE...MADRE AND SPRINGS BURN AREAS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY AND INTENSE RAINFALL...RESIDENTS LOCATED NEAR THESE BURN AREAS
SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ON THE UPCOMING STORM SYSTEMS...INCLUDING UPDATED
FORECASTS...STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS.

SIRARD

TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION...CHECK OUT OUR WEB
SITES WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES...FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT
@NWSLOSANGELES OR OUR FACEBOOK PAGE: US NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS
ANGELES/OXNARD.