Gale Watch 21, NWS Los Angeles, CA

673 
WHUS76 KLOX 142231
MWWLOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
231 PM PST SUN DEC 14 2014

PZZ645-670-673-150530-
/O.CON.KLOX.GL.A.0021.141215T1200Z-141216T0300Z/
POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL WESTWARD OUT TO 10 NM-
POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PT. SAL TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND CA AND WESTWARD 60 NM
INCLUDING SAN MIGUEL AND SANTA ROSA ISLANDS-
231 PM PST SUN DEC 14 2014

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE
  EXPECTED WHEN WINDS ARE STRONGEST.

* SEAS...COMBINED SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FEET WITH PERIODS AROUND 16
  SECONDS ARE EXPECTED.

SEE THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST (CWFLOX) FOR MORE DETAILS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN HAZARDOUS GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS ARE PROBABLE IN THE NEAR FUTURE...BUT THE SPECIFIC
TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO
CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

086 
WHUS76 KLOX 150442
MWWLOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
842 PM PST SUN DEC 14 2014

PZZ645-151645-
/O.UPG.KLOX.GL.A.0021.141215T1200Z-141216T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KLOX.SC.Y.0145.141215T2000Z-141216T0300Z/
POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL WESTWARD OUT TO 10 NM-
842 PM PST SUN DEC 14 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM PST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOS ANGELES/OXNARD HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM PST
MONDAY. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

SEE THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST (CWFLOX) FOR MORE DETAILS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

PZZ673-151645-
/O.UPG.KLOX.GL.A.0021.141215T1200Z-141216T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KLOX.SC.Y.0145.141215T2000Z-141216T0300Z/
WATERS FROM PT. SAL TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND CA AND WESTWARD 60 NM
INCLUDING SAN MIGUEL AND SANTA ROSA ISLANDS-
842 PM PST SUN DEC 14 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM PST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOS ANGELES/OXNARD HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM PST
MONDAY. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

SEE THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST (CWFLOX) FOR MORE DETAILS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

PZZ670-151645-
/O.UPG.KLOX.GL.A.0021.141215T1200Z-141216T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KLOX.SC.Y.0145.141215T1600Z-141216T0300Z/
POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
842 PM PST SUN DEC 14 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM PST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOS ANGELES/OXNARD HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM PST
MONDAY. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

SEE THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST (CWFLOX) FOR MORE DETAILS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
845 AM PST SUN DEC 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES BRUSH THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
NO MORNING UPDATES NEEDED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY.  WET WEATHER STILL ON TARGET FOR THIS
WEEK...WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGING WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND ANOTHER LESS ORGANIZED BAND TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCES OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE THE MOST DIFFICULT ASPECT OF THE FORECAST AS SOME
MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW WELL THE FIRST FRONT HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT
MAKES THE POINT CONCEPTION TURN.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 50N AND 145W. A PIECE OF THE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW THIS MORNING WILL
BREAK OFF LATE TONIGHT AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA. TIMING OF THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS AGREEABLE...AND ONLY A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS HAVE MADE TO POPS AND WEATHER.

THE LATEST NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS LEAN TOWARDS THE SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
BETWEEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS
ARE SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER RELATIVE TO THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM
SOLUTIONS...BUT OFFER UP THE BEST RESOLUTION FOR THE TOPOGRAPHIC
FEATURES OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. QPF VALUES WILL BE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY TO BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCH FOR THE COASTAL AND VALLEY
AREAS...AND 1.00 TO 2.00 INCHES FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.
WITH 50 KNOT 850 MB WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION TOTALS AS OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS GET
INTO PLAY. 500 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACH -24 DEGREE CELSIUS ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE PACKAGE. WIND HEADLINES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY ONCE THE FINER DETAILS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCRETE. THE SNOW LEVEL WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD FALL TO AS LOW AS
4500 TO 5000 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

A SHOWERY PATTERN WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP
A MOIST AND UNSETTLED FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...

A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE
REGION. VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE PERFORMED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN LOWER-LEVELS...THE BEST
CHANCE OF ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR FOR AREAS NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION AND ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

AN OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN COULD DEVELOP NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...14/1200Z.

AT 0915Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO INVERSION.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KPRB THIS
MORNING THOUGH WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING.  OTHERWISE
AND ELSEWHERE... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A TEN PERCENT CHANCE
OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THIS MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THIS MORNING.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A TEN PERCENT CHANCE OF
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...14/300 AM.

HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  NEW ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED EITHER LATER TODAY OR ON MONDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF LARGE SWELLS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE AS ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. AT THIS TIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO 15 TO 25 KT WITH STRONGER GUSTS BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF GALE
FORCE GUSTS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS ON MONDAY. IN ADDITION...
ANOTHER WESTERLY SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY
BUILDING TO 13 TO 15 FT AT 17 SECONDS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...KITTELL/HALL
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
830 AM PST SUN DEC 14 2014

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-151400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
830 AM PST SUN DEC 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY AND TONIGHT

ELEVATED SURF WILL BRING A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

* HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK......SEE FZUS56 KLOX - SRFLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. AN ADDITIONAL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

* MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE FZUS76 KLOX - MWSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

HALL/RK