Freeze Warning 3, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
150 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK. THERE WILL
BE GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THEN SHIFTS SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE AREA...WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
RAIN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A STRONG 591 DM HIGH WAS
LOCATED 400 MILES WEST OF SAN DIEGO...LEAVING SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA UNDER A STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE UPPER HIGH WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY BUT WEAKEN A BIT BY WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO FLATTEN OUT BY AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WELL OUT OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC.

TODAY'S HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE...ESPECIALLY FOR COAST AND VALLEY SITES. THE COLDER AIR
ADVECTION HAS CEASED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR REGION WHICH
IS WHY MOST OF THE WINDS HAVE REMAINED BELOW WIND ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. THERE HAVE BEEN LOCAL GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH IN A FEW
LOCATIONS...BUT THE MALIBU HILLS CONTINUED TO BLOW PRETTY GOOD THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AT THIS TIME...HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS. WILL BE ADDING THE LA/VTU
COUNTY MOUNTAINS LATER THIS EVENING...THEN THE SANTA CLARITA AND
VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. OVERALL...WIND
ADVISORIES WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. NOT MUCH UPPER LVL SUPPORT AND
NO THERMAL COOLING PUNCH ACROSS THE HIGH DESERT TO STRENGTHEN THE
WINDS MUCH. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH FOR THE VENTURA
COUNTY COAST TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL AS THE LA COUNTY COAST FROM
MALIBU TO LEO CARRILLO BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE SHIFTING
FARTHER SOUTH CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST. THIS WILL
CAUSE STRONGER WINDS FOR THE COUNTIES HANDLED BY THE SAN DIEGO NWS
OFFICE. EXPECT SIMILAR WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE SANTA ANA WIND
ACROSS THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WITH
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...AND CONTINUED WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS...EXPECT
HIGH TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST WED WITH
WARMEST TEMPS REACHING THE MID 80S FOR THE CENTRAL COAST...AND
POSSIBLY THE UPPER 80S FOR THE LA/VTU COUNTY COAST AND COASTAL
VALLEYS WED/THU. BY THURSDAY...THE SEABREEZE SHOULD KICK IN EARLIER
IN THE DAY...WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME COOLING TO THE CENTRAL COAST
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL TO MOST BEACH AREAS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A GOOD 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON THURSDAY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING AS A PRETTY POTENT UPPER
LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. EXPECT A WIDESPREAD COOLING TREND BEGINNING FRIDAY WITH THE
POSSIBLE RETURN OF MARINE LAYER STRATUS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME BOTH MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE. ALTHOUGH
MODELS COULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BOTH MODELS WERE
PICKING UP ON GOOD SOUTHERN FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WHICH IS A GOOD
SIGN FOR ENHANCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SANTA
YNEZ...VENTURA AND LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS START OUT AROUND
6000 TO 6500 FT...BUT LOWER TO AROUND 4500 FT AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY. STILL TOO EARLY...BUT WITH THE BUSY HOLIDAY
TRAVEL NEXT WEEKEND...IT DOES NOT HURT TO GET THE WORD OUT. AS THIS
NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM BEGINS TO CLOSE IN...THERE WILL BE MORE
DETAILS TO SHARE.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1800Z...

MID/UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL PERSIST. UPPER
LEVEL STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE NORTHWEST AFTER
25/12Z WHILE MID LEVEL WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME WEAK
NORTHEAST AFTER 25/04Z. WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGH 25/20Z THEN MIXED WEAK ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1705Z IS NONE.

KLAX...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
THERE IS A CHANCE LOW LEVEL WINDS ABOVE .7KFT 06014KT BETWEEN
25/08-25/16Z.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
THERE IS A CHANCE LLWS AFTER 25/03Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...24/200 PM...

THERE IS A CHANCE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REDEVELOP AND GENERATE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM PORT HUENEME TO SANTA MONICA
AND EXTEND OUT TO THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND TUESDAY MORNING.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAIN
BELOW SCA CONDITIONS. A DYNAMIC FETCH AREA ORIENTED 330-310 DEGREES
RELATIVE TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
GENERATE SEAS 20 FEET WHILE PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND SCA FOR HAZARDOUS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA NEXT WEEK MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...24/150 PM.
THE GUSTY WINDS FROM TODAY WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT WITH THE WIND
SHIFT SOME AREAS THAT SAW GUSTY WINDS EARLIER THIS WEEK WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG. THIS INCLUDES THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AND SANTA
MONICA/PACIFIC PALISADES. MEANWHILE...HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 6 AND 15
PERCENT WILL BE COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH POOR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OVER SEVERAL AREAS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING
HOURS. RED FLAG DURATIONS (6 HOURS OR MORE OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS)
HOWEVER WILL LIKELY ONLY BE MET WHERE THE WINDS ARE THE
STRONGEST...NAMELY THE LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AS
WELL AS THE VENTURA COUNTY AND SANTA CLARITA VALLEYS. THIS INCLUDES
THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS AND MALIBU FOOTHILLS WHERE THE THREAT IS
HIGHEST. THE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS LOOKS LESS FAVORABLE
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING.

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SWEET
FIRE...KITTELL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
919 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-251400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
919 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY AND TONIGHT

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. THERE
WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SANTA MONICA
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE HILLS OF MALIBU THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON.

* RED FLAG WARNING...........SEE WWUS86 KLOX - RFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES
COUNTIES TUESDAY...WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES TUESDAY...AND
POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY.AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.THERE IS A CHANCE OF A STORM
STARTING ON SUNDAY.

* FIRE WEATHER WATCH.........SEE WWUS86 KLOX - RFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KAPLAN/RORKE