High Wind Warning 2, NWS Chicago, IL

659 
WWUS73 KLOT 310839
NPWLOT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
339 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

ILZ014-INZ001-002-311645-
/O.CON.KLOT.HW.W.0002.141031T1500Z-141031T2300Z/
COOK-LAKE IN-PORTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHICAGO...GARY...VALPARAISO
339 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM CDT THIS EVENING NEAR THE LAKE...

* TIMING...DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...NEAR THE LAKE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH 
  GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...INLAND NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH 
  WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$

ILZ005-006-012-013-020-022-023-033-INZ010-011-019-311645-
/O.CON.KLOT.WI.Y.0002.141031T1300Z-141101T0000Z/
MCHENRY-LAKE IL-KANE-DUPAGE-KENDALL-WILL-KANKAKEE-IROQUOIS-NEWTON-
JASPER-BENTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WOODSTOCK...WAUKEGAN...AURORA...
WHEATON...OSWEGO...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...WATSEKA...MOROCCO...
RENSSELAER...FOWLER
339 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014 /439 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM CDT /9 AM EDT/ THIS
MORNING TO 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR
GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 57 MPH...ARE LIKELY. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN
CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE UNLESS PRECAUTIONS ARE TAKEN. DRIVING
MAY BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. MOTORISTS
SHOULD BE ALERT AND USE CAUTION.

&&

$$

IZZI

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

456 
WWUS73 KLOT 311405
NPWLOT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
905 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

ILZ014-INZ001-002-312215-
/O.CON.KLOT.HW.W.0002.141031T1500Z-141031T2300Z/
COOK-LAKE IN-PORTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHICAGO...GARY...VALPARAISO
905 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* TIMING...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...NEAR THE LAKE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH 
  GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...INLAND NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH 
  WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$

ILZ005-006-012-013-020-022-023-033-INZ010-011-019-312215-
/O.CON.KLOT.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-141101T0000Z/
MCHENRY-LAKE IL-KANE-DUPAGE-KENDALL-WILL-KANKAKEE-IROQUOIS-NEWTON-
JASPER-BENTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WOODSTOCK...WAUKEGAN...AURORA...
WHEATON...OSWEGO...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...WATSEKA...MOROCCO...
RENSSELAER...FOWLER
905 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014 /1005 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ THIS
EVENING...

* TIMING...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR
GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 57 MPH...ARE LIKELY. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN
CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE UNLESS PRECAUTIONS ARE TAKEN. DRIVING
MAY BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. MOTORISTS
SHOULD BE ALERT AND USE CAUTION.

&&

$$

JEE

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

758 
WWUS73 KLOT 312030
NPWLOT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
330 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

ILZ014-INZ001-002-312300-
/O.CON.KLOT.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-141031T2300Z/
COOK-LAKE IN-PORTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHICAGO...GARY...VALPARAISO
330 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* TIMING...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...NEAR THE LAKE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH 
  GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...INLAND NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH 
  WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$

ILZ005-006-012-013-020-022-023-033-INZ010-011-019-010000-
/O.CON.KLOT.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-141101T0000Z/
MCHENRY-LAKE IL-KANE-DUPAGE-KENDALL-WILL-KANKAKEE-IROQUOIS-NEWTON-
JASPER-BENTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WOODSTOCK...WAUKEGAN...AURORA...
WHEATON...OSWEGO...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...WATSEKA...MOROCCO...
RENSSELAER...FOWLER
330 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014 /430 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ THIS
EVENING...

* TIMING...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR
GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 57 MPH...ARE LIKELY. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN
CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE UNLESS PRECAUTIONS ARE TAKEN. DRIVING
MAY BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. MOTORISTS
SHOULD BE ALERT AND USE CAUTION.

&&

$$

JEE

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

332 
WWUS73 KLOT 312230
NPWLOT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
530 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

ILZ014-INZ001-002-010300-
/O.EXT.KLOT.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-141101T0300Z/
COOK-LAKE IN-PORTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHICAGO...GARY...VALPARAISO
530 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...NEAR THE LAKE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH 
  GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...INLAND NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH 
  WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$

ILZ005-006-012-013-020-022-023-033-INZ010-011-019-010000-
/O.CON.KLOT.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-141101T0000Z/
MCHENRY-LAKE IL-KANE-DUPAGE-KENDALL-WILL-KANKAKEE-IROQUOIS-NEWTON-
JASPER-BENTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WOODSTOCK...WAUKEGAN...AURORA...
WHEATON...OSWEGO...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...WATSEKA...MOROCCO...
RENSSELAER...FOWLER
530 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014 /630 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ THIS
EVENING...

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR
GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 57 MPH...ARE LIKELY. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN
CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE UNLESS PRECAUTIONS ARE TAKEN. DRIVING
MAY BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. MOTORISTS
SHOULD BE ALERT AND USE CAUTION.

&&

$$

RODRIGUEZ

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

345 
WWUS73 KLOT 010013
NPWLOT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
713 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

ILZ005-006-012-013-020-022-023-033-INZ010-011-019-010115-
/O.EXP.KLOT.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-141101T0000Z/
MCHENRY-LAKE IL-KANE-DUPAGE-KENDALL-WILL-KANKAKEE-IROQUOIS-NEWTON-
JASPER-BENTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WOODSTOCK...WAUKEGAN...AURORA...
WHEATON...OSWEGO...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...WATSEKA...MOROCCO...
RENSSELAER...FOWLER
713 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014 /813 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

$$

ILZ014-INZ001-002-010300-
/O.CON.KLOT.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-141101T0300Z/
COOK-LAKE IN-PORTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHICAGO...GARY...VALPARAISO
713 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* TIMING...THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...NEAR THE LAKE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH 
  GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...INLAND NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH 
  WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$

RODRIGUEZ

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

612 
WWUS73 KLOT 010157
NPWLOT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
857 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

ILZ014-INZ001-002-010300-
/O.CAN.KLOT.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-141101T0300Z/
COOK-LAKE IN-PORTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHICAGO...GARY...VALPARAISO
857 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. 

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

$$

RODRIGUEZ

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
326 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...
326 AM CDT

THROUGH SATURDAY...

ACTIVE WEATHER ON TAP THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS COMPACT AND DEEP UPPER
LOW DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DRAGGING UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. EARLY THIS MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER DIFFUSE
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
RESULTING IN A HEALTHY TEMP DROP PRIOR TO SUNRISE OVER NORTHERN CWA
AND SHORTLY AFTERWARD SOUTHEAST. STRONG NNW WINDS WILL ALSO ARRIVE
WITH THE COLD AIR AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES LARGELY REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

COMPACT VORT AND REALLY THE HEART OF THE UPPER LOW SHOWS UP NICELY
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS DIVING SSE TOWARD
THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN SCATTERED BUT FAIRLY VIGOROUS SNOW
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WOULD FULLY
ANTICIPATE THESE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE TOO WARM FOR MUCH
IF ANY ACCUMULATION...BUT SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE BRIEFLY
VIGOROUS AND KNOCK VSBY DOWN TO BELOW 1SM. AS THE VORT CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST LOOK FOR THE NON-LAKE DRIVEN PRECIP TO END BY MID MORNING
NORTHERN CWA AND LATE MORNING SOUTHEAST CWA.

THE VORT WILL HERALD THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT AND
RESULTANT STRONGEST INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE AS H5 TEMPS DROP TO
-33C AND H7 TEMPS BELOW -15C. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OVER THE LAKE
BEHIND THIS VORT BECOME EXPLOSIVELY UNSTABLE THIS MORNING REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE DAY. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD GET GOING IN ERNEST BEHIND THIS
VORT AND CONTINUE TO SOME DEGREE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FORECAST
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TODAY APPROACH 20K FT...NEAR THE
-30C LEVEL...WHICH IS MORE THAN COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHTNING
GIVEN THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MIXED PHASE HYDROMETEORS (SUPERCOOLED
DROPLETS AND ICE) IN THE CLOUDS WITHIN STRONG UPDRAFTS. NEAR SURFACE
TEMPS OVER THE LAKE AND WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE LAKE SHORE MAY BE
WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT P-TYPE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN RAIN...RAIN/SNOW
MIX...AND ALL SNOW. LAKE EFFECT PRECIP FARTHER INLAND STANDS A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE OF REMAINING ALL OR MOSTLY SNOW.

ONE OF THE BIGGER UNCERTAINTIES FOR TODAY IS HOW ORGANIZED THE LAKE
EFFECT WILL BECOME AND WHETHER IT WILL BE MULTIPLE BANDS OR A SINGLE
INTENSE BAND. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND LESS
THAN IDEAL TIME OF DAY AM CONCERNED THAT THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
COULD BE SOMEWHAT UNORGANIZED/SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH MULTIPLE
BANDS DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL BE THE TIME OF STRONG TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY. IF A MORE ORGANIZED DOMINANT SINGLE BAND DOES
FORM...THE STRONG FLOW AND INSTABILITY WELL INLAND WOULD SUPPORT
INTENSE PRECIP RATES MAKING IT WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
P-TYPE WOULD LIKELY BE MOSTLY SNOW...POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW. IF SNOW FALLS HEAVY ENOUGH THEN THE WARM GROUND TEMPS WOULD
BECOME MORE OF A MOOT POINT WITH RAPID ACCUMULATIONS OF HEAVY/WET
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SURFACES WHERE ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD
SEE A QUICK SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD
APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS ORGANIZED BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS RESULTING
IN ONLY MINOR ACCUMS ON GRASSY SURFACES IN SPOTS TODAY. THE WIND
WILL BE WHIPPING THE SNOW AROUND REGARDLESS SO UNDERNEATH ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW CONDITIONS WILL BE PRETTY MISERABLE EVEN THOUGH IT IS
UNLIKELY TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADS/SIDEWALKS TODAY. LAKE AND PORTER
COUNTY LOOK TO BE GROUND ZERO FOR THE LAKE EFFECT TODAY WITH THE
PRECIP LIKELY MAKING IT WELL INLAND TO JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES.
SOME HIGH RES GUIDANCE DOES CLIP SE COOK AND EASTERN WILL WITH LAKE
EFFECT PRECIP TODAY WHICH ISNT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW POPS THERE.

THIS EVENING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER AND SEND THE
LAKE EFFECT MORE INTO EASTERN COOK/EASTERN WILL/WESTERN LAKE IN (AND
EVEN POINTS SOUTH. BY THIS EVENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE
WEAKENING AND THE TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE INFLUENCED AREAS
DROPPING WHICH WOULD BOTH TEND TO FAVOR A TRANSITION TO A MORE
ORGANIZED DOMINANT SINGLE LAKE EFFECT BAND. MY BEST GUESS IS THAT
THE TIME WINDOW FOR THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF A DOMINANT LAKE
EFFECT BAND WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW IS BETWEEN 23Z AND ABOUT
04Z. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THE INSTABILITY (WHILE LESS THAN
EARLIER IN THE DAY) WILL STILL BE STRONG WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS
AROUND 10K FT AND LAKE-850 DELTA T VALUES >20C. DOES APPEARS A
PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW COULD OCCUR IN EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN COOK AND
EASTERN WILL COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE OPTED NOT TO EXPAND THE WINTER WX HEADLINES AT THIS TIME
AND INSTEAD WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR MESOSCALE TRENDS. BY
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE LAKE EFFECT
PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AND THE INTENSITY
OF THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY END SATURDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGHER POPS LATER IN TIME
AS LAKE EFFECT RARELY WINDS DOWN AS QUICKLY AS MODEL PROGGED
PARAMETERS SUGGEST IT WILL. WORTH NOTING THAT BY LATE EVENING AND
THROUGH SAT MORNING THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOP TEMPS DROP BELOW -12C
MEANING THE LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS CONTAINING ICE NUCLEI FOR SNOW WILL
BE LOW...SO DESPITE LOWER TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE
TRANSITIONED P-TYPE BACK TO RAIN OR SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND SAT
MORNING.

FINALLY...HIGH WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY. PLAN TO
MAINTAIN WIND ADVISORY AS IS THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN INLAND LOCATIONS
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT THAT HIGH...BUT WITH GUSTS TO AT
LEAST 40 MPH A GOOD BET NOTHING WOULD BE GAINED FROM MAKING ANY
CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES. THE STORM WARNING FOR THE LAKE LOOKS
LIKELY TO VERIFY WITH 40 MPH SUSTAINED AND POSSIBLY GUSTS TO 58 MPH
LIKELY ALONG THE LAKE FRONT TODAY AND REALLY NOT COMFORTABLE NOT
HAVING A WARNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE
LAKE...SO AM GOING TO UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LAKE SHORE
AREAS.

HEADLINES ARE AN ABSOLUTE MESS AND HEADACHE. WINTER WX ADVISORY
COVERS WIND AND SNOW...BUT IN ORDER TO GO WITH WARNING FOR WIND
ALONG THE LAKE FRONT IN INDIANA WOULD NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING WHICH REALLY DOESNT SEEM TO BE THE BEST PRODUCT. AFTER
MUCH HEMMING AND HAWING AND INTERNAL COORDINATION HAVE OPTED TO
CHANGE THE WINTER WX ADV TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY AND ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FOR JASPER AND NEWTON AND A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LAKE
SHORE AREAS OF COOK...PORTER...AND LAKE IN. MAY NEED TO REPLACE THE
HIGH WIND WARNING WITH A WIND ADVISORY BY EARLY EVENING FOR

IZZI

&&

.LONG TERM...
325 AM CDT

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MUCH...MUCH QUIETER SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPS. SLOW
MOVING FRONT COULD BRING A SOMEWHAT PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN/SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

IZZI

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

* FEW HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER DAYBREAK.

* NORTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING NORTH AFTER DAYBREAK WITH GUSTS
  INCREASING TO 35-40 KT. NOT CLEAR ON FREQUENCY OF 40 KT GUSTS.

* PERIODIC MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING.

* LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT MDW EARLY EVENING.

MDB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

NUMEROUS FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE
HURON TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TRAILING IT. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO TURN NORTHWEST
WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AT 06Z AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH THE FIRST NOW BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
TERMINALS. THE NEXT WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT BRINGING INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS WITH A BETTER DEFINED WAVE CROSSING THE AREA AROUND/AFTER
DAYBREAK BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AS MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES. AREAS
OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN ARE SEEING IFR SNOW THIS HOUR BUT THESE
HEAVIER BURSTS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF HEAVIER BURST OF NON-ACCUMULATING
SNOW AT ORD/MDW/GYY BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH MINIMAL VSBY
RESTRICTION. OTHERWISE EXPECT INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
WITH QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS.

WINDS FURTHER INCREASE BEHIND THIS SNOW PRODUCING WAVE WITH GUSTS
OF 35-40 KT EXPECTED. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FREQUENT THAT 40 KT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BUT AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THEY WILL. AM THINKING
THAT THERE MAY BE TWO SEPARATE WINDOWS WHERE 40 KT WILL BE MOST
LIKELY...ONE BEING MID/LATE MORNING BEHIND THE SNOW PRODUCING WAVE
AND THE OTHER BEING MID AFTERNOON WHEN SKIES ARE MOST LIKELY TO
SCATTER. WITH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN 40 KT FREQUENCY ON THE LOW
SIDE WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS DURATION FOR NOW BUT WILL ATTEMPT
TO REFINE WITH THE NEXT UPDATE IF POSSIBLE.

THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION. GYY LOOKS TO BE
IN LINE FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW AND POSSIBLY PERIODS OF ALL SNOW
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS
CONDITIONS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE OVER THE LAKE. MAY NEED TO
INDICATE SUB 1SM VSBY IN MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION AS DETAILS
BECOME MORE CLEAR. GYY WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS
GIVEN THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE LAKE AND 45+ KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WINDS GRADUALLY EASE EARLY THIS EVENING AND LAKE EFFECT MAY BEGIN
TO TRANSITION WESTWARD INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT SO MDW AND
POSSIBLY ORD COULD BE IN LINE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WITH TIME INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SNOW SHOWER MENTION AT MDW THIS EVENING BUT LEAVE
ORD DRY FOR NOW.

MDB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SOME SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...LOW
  CONFIDENCE IN DURATION/INTENSITY.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHWEST WINDS TURNING NORTH AND IN GUSTS
  REACHING 35-37 KT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT SOME 40 KT GUSTS WILL
  OCCUR BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN FREQUENCY AND BEST TIMING.

* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PERIODIC MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
  THE MORNING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS
  EVENING.

MDB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KT.
* MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* TUESDAY...SHRA/MVFR LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...DRY/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
256 AM CDT

A MAJOR WIND EVENT CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE FOR LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING. FAIRLY BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST TO LAKE ERIE BY MIDDAY THEN CONTINUE TO THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT AND MERGE WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE. VERY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA IS
THE KEY TO THE RAPIDLY INCREASING WINDS THAT ARE NOW REACHING THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE LAKE INTO MID MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS ALLOWING MUCH COLDER AIR TO SPREAD DOWN THE LAKE. NORTH WINDS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO STORM FORCE AROUND 50 KT FOR MOST OF THE
LAKE WITH THE FAR NORTHERN SECTION HOLDING AT GALES...THOUGH A FEW
50 KT GUSTS COULD OCCUR THIS MORNING. MAY SEE SOME 55 KT GUSTS AT
TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
MORNING INTO MIDDAY. THIS RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS AND STRONG
MIXING OVER THE LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR A RAPID BUILDING OF WAVES
THROUGH THE MORNING TO AROUND 20 FEET BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH 18-23 FT PREVAILING WAVES IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE THIS EVENING AND TREND A BIT
NORTHEASTERLY. SHOULD SEE WINDS FALL BELOW GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT
BUT WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY SO WAVES WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO FALL AS WELL. WILL LEAVE
EXISTING GALE AND STORM WARNINGS AS-IS.

THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE LAKE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
KEEPING WINDS LIGHT BUT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND MAY PUSH 30 KT LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT THEN LET UP NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHILE THE SOUTH SEES BREEZY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE. WINDS TURN WESTERLY LATER TUESDAY AND
DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA.

MDB

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ014...7 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY.

     LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...ILZ014...11 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
     SATURDAY.

     WIND ADVISORY...ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ020-ILZ022...7 AM
     FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.

     WIND ADVISORY...ILZ023-ILZ033...10 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.

IN...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002...11 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
     SATURDAY.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011...10 AM
     FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY.

     WIND ADVISORY...INZ019...10 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.

LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
     LMZ675-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-
     LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 PM FRIDAY TO
     4 AM SATURDAY.

     STORM WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-
     LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
     LMZ878 UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.

     GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563 UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY.

     GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WINTHROP TO WILMETTE HARBORS UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.

     STORM WARNING...NEARSHORE WILMETTE HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 7 PM
     FRIDAY.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
411 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
312115-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
411 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014 /511 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 55 MPH ARE LIKELY NEAR THE LAKE
FRIDAY RESULTING IN LARGE BATTERING WAVES WHICH COULD RESULT IN
MINOR LAKE SHORE FLOODING.

IN ADDITION...ISOLATED LAKE EFFECT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION COULD
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AND FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS LAKE...PORTER...JASPER AND NEWTON
COUNTIES IN INDIANA. EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...IF
SNOW WERE TO FALL HARD ENOUGH SOME SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS COULD
OCCUR ON GRASSY SURFACES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

LMZ740>745-312115-
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
411 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HIGH END GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE SEEN FRIDAY WITH GALES
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HAZARDOUS WAVES FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL
LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING EVEN AFTER WINDS DIMINISH.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE INDIANA WATERS
FRIDAY.

&&

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-312115-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
411 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD OVER THE LAKE LATE
TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
LAKE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH GALES LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PART OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

BIRK/MTF

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