Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Chicago, IL

577 
WGUS73 KLOT 130115
FFSLOT

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
815 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

ILC031-043-089-097-111-130600-
/O.CON.KLOT.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-140513T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KANE IL-MCHENRY IL-DUPAGE IL-LAKE IL-COOK IL-
815 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN COOK...
SOUTHERN LAKE...NORTHERN DUPAGE...SOUTHEASTERN MCHENRY AND
NORTHEASTERN KANE COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

AT 813 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS FAR NORTHERN COOK 
AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY 
RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING.

RAINFALL REPORTS HAVE RANGED BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES ACROSS MANY 
LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN COOK COUNTY. FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN 
ELGIN AND DES PLAINES.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ADDISON...ALGONQUIN...ARLINGTON HEIGHTS...BARRINGTON...BUFFALO
GROVE...CAROL STREAM...CARPENTERSVILLE...DEERFIELD...DES PLAINES...
DUPAGE AIRPORT...EAST DUNDEE...ELGIN...ELMHURST...FRANKLIN PARK AND
GLENCOE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS... UNDERPASSES AND LOW LYING AREAS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 4238 8781 4236 8781 4235 8782 4231 8781
      4230 8782 4223 8781 4214 8774 4207 8767
      4187 8796 4194 8849 4221 8831 4231 8817

$$

CMS

003 
WGUS73 KLOT 130211
FFSLOT

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
911 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

ILC031-043-089-097-111-130600-
/O.CON.KLOT.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-140513T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KANE IL-MCHENRY IL-DUPAGE IL-LAKE IL-COOK IL-
911 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN COOK...
SOUTHERN LAKE...NORTHERN DUPAGE...SOUTHEASTERN MCHENRY AND
NORTHEASTERN KANE COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

AT 910 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE MOVED NORTH
OF THE WARNED AREA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY 
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING.

RAINFALL REPORTS HAVE RANGED BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES ACROSS MANY 
LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN COOK COUNTY. FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN 
ELGIN AND DES PLAINES.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ADDISON...ALGONQUIN...ARLINGTON HEIGHTS...BARRINGTON...BUFFALO
GROVE...CAROL STREAM...CARPENTERSVILLE...DEERFIELD...DES PLAINES...
DUPAGE AIRPORT...EAST DUNDEE...ELGIN...ELMHURST...FRANKLIN PARK AND
GLENCOE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 4238 8781 4236 8781 4235 8782 4231 8781
      4230 8782 4223 8781 4214 8774 4207 8767
      4187 8796 4194 8849 4221 8831 4231 8817

$$

CMS

904 
WGUS73 KLOT 130329
FFSLOT

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1029 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

ILC031-043-089-097-111-130600-
/O.CON.KLOT.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-140513T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KANE IL-MCHENRY IL-DUPAGE IL-LAKE IL-COOK IL-
1029 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN COOK...
SOUTHERN LAKE...NORTHERN DUPAGE...SOUTHEASTERN MCHENRY AND
NORTHEASTERN KANE COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

AT 1022 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN 
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR WAUKEGAN...TO DEKALB...TO NEAR 
PONTIAC. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING EAST INTO THE WARNED 
AREA...WHICH HAD ALREADY RECEIVED BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF RAIN 
SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY THROUGH 
AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. 

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ADDISON...ALGONQUIN...ARLINGTON HEIGHTS...BARRINGTON...BUFFALO
GROVE...CAROL STREAM...CARPENTERSVILLE...DEERFIELD...DES PLAINES...
DUPAGE AIRPORT...EAST DUNDEE...ELGIN...ELMHURST...FRANKLIN PARK AND
GLENCOE.

PORTIONS OF ELGIN...DES PLAINES...GLENVIEW AND OTHER NEARBY NORTH 
AND NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF CHICAGO HAVE REPORTED FLOODING FROM THESE 
HEAVY RAINS...WITH RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES INDICATING THE GREATEST 
AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF 
NORTHEAST COOK COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 4238 8781 4236 8781 4235 8782 4231 8781
      4230 8782 4223 8781 4214 8774 4207 8767
      4187 8796 4194 8849 4221 8831 4231 8817

$$

RATZER

753 
WGUS73 KLOT 130433
FFSLOT

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1133 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

ILC031-043-089-097-111-130600-
/O.CON.KLOT.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-140513T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KANE IL-MCHENRY IL-DUPAGE IL-LAKE IL-COOK IL-
1133 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN COOK...
SOUTHERN LAKE...NORTHERN DUPAGE...SOUTHEASTERN MCHENRY AND
NORTHEASTERN KANE COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

AT 1123 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS 
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...FROM NEAR WAUKEGAN SOUTHWEST TO 
OHARE AIRPORT AND WHEATON.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO MORE THAN 4 INCHES HAVE FALLEN ACROSS 
PORTIONS EASTERN MCHENRY...LAKE AND NORTHERN COOK COUNTIES SINCE 
THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AT RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER 
HOUR WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...THOUGH ADDITIONAL LIGHTER 
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 1 AM CDT.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ADDISON...ALGONQUIN...ARLINGTON HEIGHTS...BARRINGTON...BUFFALO
GROVE...CAROL STREAM...CARPENTERSVILLE...DEERFIELD...DES PLAINES...
DUPAGE AIRPORT...EAST DUNDEE...ELGIN...ELMHURST...FRANKLIN PARK AND
GLENCOE.

LAKE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED THAT FLASH FLOODING 
WAS OCCURRING ALONG U.S. ROUTE 41 IN LAKE BLUFF...NORTH OF ROUTE 
176. THERE WAS AN ESTIMATED 10 FEET OF WATER BENEATH THE C.N. 
RAILROAD OVERPASS...CLOSING ROUTE 41.

OTHER LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...ADDISON...
ALGONQUIN...ARLINGTON HEIGHTS...BARRINGTON...BUFFALO GROVE...CAROL
STREAM...CARPENTERSVILLE...DEERFIELD...DES PLAINES...DUPAGE
AIRPORT...EAST DUNDEE...ELGIN...ELMHURST...FRANKLIN PARK AND GLENCOE.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS... UNDERPASSES AND LOW LYING AREAS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 4238 8781 4236 8781 4235 8782 4231 8781
      4230 8782 4223 8781 4214 8774 4207 8767
      4187 8796 4194 8849 4221 8831 4231 8817

$$

RATZER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
618 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
525 PM CDT

STORMS CONTINUE TO REGENERATE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND OVER
THE STATE BORDER ALONG AND NEAR AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS
BOUNDARY WHICH HAS MEANDERED ITS WAY INTO LAKE COUNTY ILLINOIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS AN IMPETUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS
EVE. OUTFLOWS FROM THESE STORMS COULD SERVE AS FOCI FOR
DEVELOPMENT IN FAR NORTHERN IL. STORM INTERACTION WITH BOUNDARIES
IN FAR SOUTHERN WI HAS ALLOWED SOME OF THEM TO HAVE BRIEF LOW-
LEVEL ROTATION THREATS. GIVEN THE PRIMARY BOUNDARY PLACEMENT
MAINLY NORTH OF THE IL/WI LINE THIS SHOULDNT BE A CONCERN IN FAR
NORTHERN ILLINOIS OUTSIDE OF MAINLY LAKE COUNTY IL.

FURTHER SOUTH...AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE...LIKELY PARTIALLY DUE TO
OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING MCS IN EASTERN IA...HAS HAD
TOWERING CUMULUS AND SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN HIGH
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG AND HIGH PWATS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...ANY CELLS COULD SPRING UP QUICKLY AND
PRESENT AT LEAST SOME HAIL/WIND THREATS IN ANY AREA OF THE CWA.
THE GREATER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...IN EXCESS OF 30 KT...LOOKS TO
REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH EARLY
EVE. THAT AREA PRESENTS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR WELL-ORGANIZED
STORMS...CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE AND TAPPING THE HIGH -10C TO -30C
CAPE FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL.

THE ELONGATED AREA OF STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST IA INTO MO SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EASTWARD
HOLDING THEIR OWN THESE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE ARE TIMED TO REACH
NORTH CENTRAL IL AROUND 8 PM-9 PM. THE ORIENTATION OF THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VECTORS IN THIS AREA DO NOT FAVOR ANY TYPE OF
EXTENSIVE MCS...THOUGH INDIVIDUAL MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR EAST AS NORTH CENTRAL IL THIS
EVE.

MTF

&&

.DISCUSSION...

244 PM...MULTIPLE FORECAST CONCERNS AND CHALLENGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD INCLUDING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/TIMING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THEN TURNING
MUCH COLDER MIDWEEK WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS/RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS DISCUSSED IN THE
ABOVE/RECENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSION WITH ATTENTION NOW SHIFTING TO
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL IOWA SOUTH TO TEXAS...AHEAD
OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE CURRENT LINE AS IT
ALL SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST...WHICH WOULD BRING ACTIVITY INTO THE WESTERN
CWA AS SOON AS 23Z-00Z. SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD BE HIGHEST EARLIER
WITH BETTER INSTABILITY BEFORE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING...THOUGH
TEMPS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE 70S THIS EVENING. AS NOTED
IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DO ANTICIPATE ANOTHER WATCH LATER THIS
EVENING BUT HOW FAR EAST AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
TIED TO TIMING. MAIN THREATS WOULD CONTINUE TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES AND EVEN A BIT
HIGHER TONIGHT AND COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
EVEN A FEW LOWER 70S...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY. WHILE THE INDIVIDUAL
STORMS WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST FAIRLY QUICKLY...THE ENTIRE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION EASTWARD WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW THUS HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE SAME AREAS COULD RESULT IN SOME FLOODING POTENTIAL. AND WITH THE
HEAVY RAINS IN PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...INCLUDING THE
SOUTHERN SUBURBS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT
LOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST TO MOVE EAST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND POTENTIALLY CUT OFF STRONGER/HEAVIER PRECIP
ACROSS NORTHERN IL.

PRECIP PROGRESSION EASTWARD WILL LIKELY SLOW TUESDAY MORNING AS IT
SLOWLY ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST BUT COULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA. TEMP TRENDS WILL ALSO BE TRICKY AS THEY
WILL LIKELY FALL OR BECOME STEADY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF WITH
SOME RECOVERY IN THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S FOR LOWS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
WHILE THESE ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MID MAY...IT WILL LIKELY FEEL
MUCH COLDER GIVEN THE CURRENT TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NEW LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
THE OVERALL TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...ITS EXACT TRACK COULD STILL
HAVE LARGE IMPACTS ON THE SPECIFICS OF THE FORECAST. FIRST...THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE A SHARP PRECIP GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. THE
CLOSER THE LOW TRACKS TO THE AREA...THE STRONGER THE NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. BUT AS CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS SPREAD NORTH WEDNESDAY WITH A RATHER COLD/WET WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LIKELY ONLY
IN THE 50S...THOUGH ANY SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS COULD
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 60S.

AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION THURSDAY
AND SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST THIS WEEKEND...WEAK IMPULSES COULD HELP
TRIGGER AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON SATURDAY
THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE MAINLY ISOLATED. TEMPERATURES WILL START
A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE 60S THIS WEEKEND AND PERHAPS
BACK INTO THE 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. CMS

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...

* SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED LATER THIS EVENING.

* DURATION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT TERMINALS...AND IMPACTS ON CIGS/VIS.

* TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT FROM SLY
  TO WLY.

KREIN

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

THE AREA IS IN A WARM...MOIST...UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH IOWA AND MISSOURI. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE FREQUENT AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
HAS CLEARED...ALLOWING MORE DIRECT SUNSHINE. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP TO THE INITIAL COUPLE HOURS FOR THE INCREASED FREQUENCY OF
WARM SECTOR THUNDERSTORMS. MORE ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT THUNDER
AND PCPN WILL OCCUR ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA. NOT ONLY WILL THIS FRONT BRING PREVAILING
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TS...WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT FROM SLY TO
SWLY-WLY...WITH A PERIOD OF LINGERING SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS.
ANTICIPATE THAT MVFR CIGS SHOULD HANG IN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
TOMORROW UNDER PERSISTENT COLD ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

KREIN

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...

* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.

* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA IMPACTING THE
  TERMINALS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND DURATION.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG/WIND TRENDS TOMORROW.

KREIN

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

WEDNESDAY...RAIN LIKELY. MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.

FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.

SATURDAY...VFR. WX NIL.

SUNDAY...VFR. WX NIL.

KREIN

&&

.MARINE...
320 PM CDT

AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO PERSIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN PER SHIP OBS AND SURROUNDING SFC COASTAL
OBS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE LAKE. THIS WARM FRONT EXTENDS BACK WEST TO LOW
PRESSURE OVER E CENTRAL MN / NORTHWEST WI WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS WELL. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE LAKE AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY SWEEPING OUT THE FOG AND
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
MORNING TUESDAY.

WINDS OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
SHORELINES. ONGOING CONVECTION HAS DISRUPTED THE WIND FIELD
CAUSING AN ONSHORE LAKE BREEZE ESPECIALLY FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO
THE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WISCONSIN AND
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. AS THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT REESTABLISHES
ITSELF... NEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO CAUSE HIGHER WINDS AND
WAVES INTO THE EVENING THROUGHOUT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

ED F

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
     UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565
     UNTIL 1 AM TUESDAY.

&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
411 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
132115-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
411 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014 /511 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS...THE MOST INTENSE COULD PRODUCE:
    WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH.
    HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS.
    TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
    AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS
  THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS AREAS
  WEST OF INTERSTATE 55 DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE EVENING AND THEN
  ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

  THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL FAVOR
  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH MAY PRODUCE
  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
  ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND
  MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID TO LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
  HOURS. WHILE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY
  LATE EVENING...THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT THEY COULD STILL POSE A
  SEVERE THREAT AS THEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

LMZ740>745-132115-
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
411 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG WINDS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-132115-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
411 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...WITH SOME POSSIBLY PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS.

DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
324 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 PM     HAIL             SOUTH BELOIT            42.48N 89.03W
05/12/2014  E2.00 INCH       WINNEBAGO          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.5 TO 2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL NEAR ROUTE 2 AND PRAIRIE
            ROAD.

0319 PM     HAIL             SOUTH BELOIT            42.48N 89.03W
05/12/2014  E1.75 INCH       WINNEBAGO          IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
606 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     HAIL             AURORA                  41.77N 88.29W
05/12/2014  E0.25 INCH       KANE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

0602 PM     HAIL             LA SALLE                41.34N 89.09W
05/12/2014  E0.25 INCH       LA SALLE           IL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            NORTH SIDE OF TOWN. ALSO HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

BN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
615 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

ILZ006-013-014-130000-
COOK IL-DUPAGE IL-LAKE IL-
615 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 610 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HANOVER PARK TO
MEDINAH TO BENSENVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

UP TO PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

CITIES AND TOWNS AFFECTED...
  HANOVER PARK...       ROSELLE...            OHARE AIRPORT...
  MEDINAH...            ITASCA...             WOOD DALE...
  BENSENVILLE...        SCHILLER PARK...      FRANKLIN PARK...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED...
HARPER COLLEGE...OAKTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE...RAVINIA MUSIC FESTIVAL...
SCHAUMBURG BOOMERS BASEBALL...WHEATON COLLEGE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
POOR VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE
STORMS HAVE PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4222 8780 4217 8776 4214 8774 4210 8771
      4185 8796 4186 8808 4191 8823 4224 8803
      4224 8781
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 216DEG 27KT 4200 8815 4201 8801
          4201 8791

RC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
650 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     HAIL             NORTHBROOK              42.13N 87.83W
05/12/2014  E0.25 INCH       COOK               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

0630 PM     TSTM WND GST     ARLINGTON HEIGHTS       42.09N 87.98W
05/12/2014  M60 MPH          COOK               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO PEA SIZED HAIL.

&&

BN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
651 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND GST     ELK GROVE VILLAGE       42.01N 87.99W
05/12/2014  M50 MPH          COOK               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO PEA SIZE HAIL.

&&

BN