Alert archive / Indiana / Winter Storm Warnings in 2014

Winter Storm Warning 7, NWS Louisville, KY

November 16, 201410 counties in Indiana; Hancock County, Trimble County, Kentucky

NWS Louisville, KY issued this winter storm warning at Nov 16, 2014, 12:43 PM EST for 10 counties in Indiana; Hancock County, Trimble County, Kentucky. It took effect at Nov 16, 2014, 8:00 PM EST. It was in force for 14 hr. 28 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Nov 16, 2014, 12:43 PM EST (17:43 UTC)
In effect from
Nov 16, 2014, 8:00 PM EST
Expired
Nov 17, 2014, 10:12 AM EST
In force
14 hr
Issued by
NWS Louisville, KY

Counties Clark County, IN, Crawford County, IN, Dubois County, IN, Floyd County, IN, Harrison County, IN, Jefferson County, IN, Orange County, IN, Perry County, IN, Scott County, IN, Washington County, IN, Hancock County, KY, Trimble County, KY

The radar

The Louisville radar (KLVX), 50 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Nov 17, 1:22 AM ESTSNOW 2Palmyra, IN&&
Nov 17, 1:22 AM ESTSNOW 2Palmyra, IN
Nov 17, 2:32 AM ESTSNOW 1.5Charlestown, IN&&
Nov 17, 2:32 AM ESTSNOW 1.5Charlestown, IN
Nov 17, 3:08 AM ESTSNOW 2Jasper, INA FEW ACCIDENTS TO REPORT AS WELL
Nov 17, 3:09 AM ESTSNOW 1.5Paoli, IN&&
Nov 17, 3:09 AM ESTSNOW 1.5Paoli, IN
Nov 17, 3:09 AM ESTSNOW 2.5Corydon, INROADWAYS VERY SLICK ACCORDING TO DISPATCH
Nov 17, 3:39 AM ESTSNOW 2Memphis, IN&&
Nov 17, 3:39 AM ESTSNOW 2Memphis, IN
Nov 17, 5:17 AM ESTSNOW 3Madison, IN
Nov 17, 5:23 AM ESTSNOW 4Salem, IN
Nov 17, 5:30 AM ESTSNOW 3Saint Anthony, INSTILL SNOWING
Nov 17, 5:30 AM ESTSNOW 4Bedford, KY
Nov 17, 5:51 AM ESTSNOW 31 Nw Martinsburg, IN
Nov 17, 7:28 AM ESTSNOW 41 Ese Corydon, IN
Nov 17, 7:30 AM ESTSNOW 3Leavenworth, IN
Nov 17, 7:30 AM ESTSNOW 4Beechwood, IN
Nov 17, 7:30 AM ESTSNOW 5Curby, IN
Nov 17, 7:35 AM ESTSNOW 4Georgetown, INVIEWER REPORT RELAYED VIA TWITTER.
Nov 17, 7:53 AM ESTSNOW 4Daisy Hill, INVIEWER REPORT RELAYED VIA TWITTER.
Nov 17, 7:56 AM ESTSNOW 5Curby, IN
Nov 17, 8:01 AM ESTSNOW 3.5Tell City, IN
Nov 17, 8:34 AM ESTSNOW 3Salem, INVIEWER REPORT RELAYED VIA TWITTER.
Nov 17, 8:43 AM ESTSNOW 4Hanover, INVIEWER REPORT RELAYED VIA FACEBOOK.
Nov 17, 9:05 AM ESTSNOW 3.5Milltown, IN
Nov 17, 10:01 AM ESTSNOW 32 Sw Crandall, IN
Nov 17, 10:16 AM ESTSNOW 5Otisco, INVIEWER REPORT RELAYED VIA TWITTER

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 5.7 hours before the alert went out and 232 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2014-11-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2014-11-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 141 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
561 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
80 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
141 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
233 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

139 
WWUS43 KLMK 161743
WSWLMK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1243 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

...WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY... 

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023-032-170200-
/O.UPG.KLMK.WW.Y.0014.141117T0100Z-141117T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KLMK.WS.W.0007.141117T0100Z-141117T1700Z/
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
TRIMBLE KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...BEDFORD
1243 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014 /1143 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EST /7 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING TO NOON EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EST /7
PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO NOON EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING: LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND PICK UP IN
  INTENSITY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL
  IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES ARE
  FORECAST. THESE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS ON AREA
  ROADWAYS AND WOULD MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT RUSH HOUR COMMUTE MONDAY
  MORNING. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND WILL ACCUMULATE RAPIDLY.

* OTHER IMPACTS: IN ADDITION TO THE SLICK SPOTS...HEAVIER SNOW
  RATES WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES. DRIVING AT NIGHT IN THE SNOW
  WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO SEE THE ROAD AHEAD OF YOU.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS...TRAVEL ONLY IF NECESSARY. SCATTERED
POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR.


&&

$$

KYZ024>026-028>031-033>035-038-170200-
/O.CON.KLMK.WW.Y.0014.141117T0400Z-141117T1700Z/
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SPENCER KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...MOUNT WASHINGTON...
SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...NEW CASTLE...
SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...TAYLORSVILLE
1243 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014 /1143 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM EST
/10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO NOON EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM
CST/ THIS EVENING TO NOON EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY. 

* TIMING: RAIN WILL BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS 
  AFTERNOON. THIS RAIN...AND PERHAPS A MIX OF SLEET...SHOULD 
  START TRANSITIONING TO SNOW TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE 
  HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT TO 
  NEAR DAWN ON MONDAY. 

* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE 
  FORECAST. THESE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS ON AREA 
  ROADWAYS AND WOULD MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT RUSH HOUR COMMUTE 
  MONDAY MORNING. 

* OTHER IMPACTS: IN ADDITION TO THE SLICK SPOTS...HEAVIER SNOW 
  RATES WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES. DRIVING AT NIGHT IN THE SNOW 
  WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO SEE THE ROAD AHEAD OF YOU. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ROADS AND BRIDGES WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. USE EXTRA CAUTION
IF TRAVELING.

&&

$$

KYZ027-036-037-039>043-045>049-053>057-061>065-070>072-170200-
/O.CON.KLMK.WW.Y.0014.141117T0800Z-141117T1700Z/
GRAYSON KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEITCHFIELD...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...
LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...
BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...
WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...
RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN
1243 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014 /1143 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM EST /2 AM
CST/ TO NOON EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM EST /2 AM
CST/ TO NOON EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY. 

* TIMING: RAIN...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF MIX OF SLEET WILL 
  TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY IN THE PRE-DAWN 
  HOURS OF MONDAY. EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO TAPER OFF BY MID 
  DAY. 

* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE 
  FORECAST...WITH AREAS IN THE BLUEGRASS IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE. 
  THESE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS 
  AND WOULD MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT RUSH HOUR COMMUTE MONDAY 
  MORNING. 

* OTHER IMPACTS: IN ADDITION TO THE SLICK SPOTS...HEAVIER SNOW 
  RATES WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES. DRIVING AT NIGHT IN THE SNOW 
  WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO SEE THE ROAD AHEAD OF YOU. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ROADS AND BRIDGES WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. USE EXTRA CAUTION
IF TRAVELING.

&&

$$

BJS
5 follow-up statements
266 
WWUS43 KLMK 162100
WSWLMK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
400 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

...WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023-032-170500-
/O.CON.KLMK.WS.W.0007.141117T0100Z-141117T1700Z/
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
TRIMBLE KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...BEDFORD
400 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014 /300 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EST /7 PM
CST/ THIS EVENING TO NOON EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY... 

* TIMING: LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND PICK UP IN 
  INTENSITY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO 
  FALL IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. 

* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES ARE
  FORECAST. THESE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS ON AREA
  ROADWAYS AND WOULD MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT RUSH HOUR COMMUTE MONDAY
  MORNING. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. 

* OTHER IMPACTS: IN ADDITION TO THE SLICK SPOTS...HEAVIER SNOW 
  RATES WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES. DRIVING AT NIGHT IN THE SNOW 
  WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO SEE THE ROAD AHEAD OF YOU. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS...TRAVEL ONLY IF NECESSARY. SCATTERED
POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR.

&&

$$

KYZ024>026-028>031-033>035-038-170500-
/O.CON.KLMK.WW.Y.0014.141117T0400Z-141117T1700Z/
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SPENCER KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...MOUNT WASHINGTON...
SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...NEW CASTLE...
SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...TAYLORSVILLE
400 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014 /300 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM EST
/10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO NOON EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY... 

 * TIMING: RAIN...AND PERHAPS A MIX OF SLEET AT TIMES...WILL START
   TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
   WILL FALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAWN.

* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES ARE
  FORECAST. THESE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS ON AREA
  ROADWAYS AND WOULD MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT RUSH HOUR COMMUTE MONDAY
  MORNING.

* OTHER IMPACTS: IN ADDITION TO THE SLICK SPOTS...HEAVIER SNOW 
  RATES WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES. DRIVING AT NIGHT IN THE SNOW 
  WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO SEE THE ROAD AHEAD OF YOU. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ROADS AND BRIDGES WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. USE EXTRA CAUTION
IF TRAVELING.

&&

$$

KYZ027-036-037-039>043-045>049-053>057-061>065-070>072-170500-
/O.CON.KLMK.WW.Y.0014.141117T0800Z-141117T1700Z/
GRAYSON KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEITCHFIELD...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...
LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...
BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...
WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...
RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN
400 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014 /300 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM EST /2 AM
CST/ TO NOON EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY...

* TIMING: RAIN...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF MIX OF SLEET WILL 
  TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY IN THE PRE-DAWN 
  HOURS OF MONDAY. EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO TAPER OFF BY MID 
  DAY. 

* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO FOUR INCHES ARE
  FORECAST...WITH AREAS NORTH OF I-64 TOWARD THE HIGHER AMOUNTS.
  AREAS SOUTH OF I-64 SHOULD EXPECT THE LOWER AMOUNTS. THESE
  ACCUMULATIONS WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS AND WOULD
  MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT RUSH HOUR COMMUTE MONDAY MORNING.

* OTHER IMPACTS: IN ADDITION TO THE SLICK SPOTS...HEAVIER SNOW 
  RATES WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES. DRIVING AT NIGHT IN THE SNOW 
  WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO SEE THE ROAD AHEAD OF YOU. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ROADS AND BRIDGES WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. USE EXTRA CAUTION
IF TRAVELING.

&&

$$

BJS
996 
WWUS43 KLMK 170419
WSWLMK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1119 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

...WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING... 

.A SMALL BUT POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MERGE WITH A
LARGER SYSTEM AND COMBINE WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL AS COLD AIR TO GENERATE AN EARLY SEASON SNOWFALL.
THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023-032-171100-
/O.CON.KLMK.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-141117T1700Z/
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
TRIMBLE KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...BEDFORD
1119 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014 /1019 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM
CST/ MONDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM
CST/ MONDAY. 

* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES ARE
  FORECAST. THESE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS ON AREA
  ROADWAYS AND WOULD MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT RUSH HOUR COMMUTE MONDAY
  MORNING. 

* OTHER IMPACTS: IN ADDITION TO THE SLICK SPOTS...HEAVIER SNOW 
  RATES WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES. DRIVING AT NIGHT IN THE SNOW 
  WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO SEE THE ROAD AHEAD OF YOU. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS...TRAVEL ONLY IF NECESSARY. SCATTERED
POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR.

&&

$$

KYZ024>026-028>031-033>035-038-171100-
/O.CON.KLMK.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-141117T1700Z/
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SPENCER KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...MOUNT WASHINGTON...
SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...NEW CASTLE...
SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...TAYLORSVILLE
1119 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014 /1019 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
/11 AM CST/ MONDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM
CST/ MONDAY. 

* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO FOUR INCHES ARE
  FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE
  OHIO RIVER. RESIDENTS CAN EXPECT SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS
  THAT WILL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT RUSH HOUR COMMUTE MONDAY
  MORNING.

* OTHER IMPACTS: IN ADDITION TO THE SLICK SPOTS...HEAVIER SNOW 
  RATES WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES. DRIVING AT NIGHT IN THE SNOW 
  WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO SEE THE ROAD AHEAD OF YOU. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ROADS AND BRIDGES WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. USE EXTRA CAUTION
IF TRAVELING.

&&

$$

KYZ027-036-037-039>043-045>049-053>057-061>065-070>072-171100-
/O.CON.KLMK.WW.Y.0014.141117T0800Z-141117T1700Z/
GRAYSON KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEITCHFIELD...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...
LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...
BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...
WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...
RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN
1119 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014 /1019 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM EST /2 AM
CST/ TO NOON EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM EST /2 AM
CST/ TO NOON EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY. 

* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE
  FORECAST...WITH AREAS NORTH OF I-64 TOWARD THE HIGHER AMOUNTS.
  AREAS SOUTH OF I-64 SHOULD EXPECT THE LOWER AMOUNTS. THESE
  ACCUMULATIONS WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS AND COULD
  MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT RUSH HOUR COMMUTE MONDAY MORNING.

* OTHER IMPACTS: IN ADDITION TO THE SLICK SPOTS...HEAVIER SNOW 
  RATES WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES. DRIVING AT NIGHT IN THE SNOW 
  WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO SEE THE ROAD AHEAD OF YOU. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ROADS AND BRIDGES WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. USE EXTRA CAUTION
IF TRAVELING.

&&

$$

RJS
619 
WWUS43 KLMK 170851
WSWLMK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
351 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014

...WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

.A SMALL BUT POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MERGE WITH A
LARGER SYSTEM AND COMBINE WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL AS COLD AIR TO GENERATE AN EARLY SEASON SNOWFALL.
THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023-032-171700-
/O.CON.KLMK.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-141117T1700Z/
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
TRIMBLE KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...BEDFORD
351 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014 /251 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014/

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM
CST/ TODAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM
CST/ TODAY. 

* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF THREE TO FOUR INCHES ARE
  FORECAST...WITH A FEW SPOTS APPROACHING FIVE INCHES. THESE
  ACCUMULATIONS WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS AND WILL
  MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT RUSH HOUR COMMUTE THIS MORNING.

* OTHER IMPACTS: IN ADDITION TO THE SLICK SPOTS...HEAVIER SNOW 
  RATES WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES. DRIVING AT NIGHT IN THE SNOW 
  WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO SEE THE ROAD AHEAD OF YOU. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS...TRAVEL ONLY IF NECESSARY. SCATTERED
POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR.

&&

$$

KYZ024>031-033>043-045>049-053>057-061>065-070>072-171700-
/O.CON.KLMK.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-141117T1700Z/
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-
BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-
JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-
MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-
LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...
TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...
CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...
FRANKLIN
351 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014 /251 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
/11 AM CST/ TODAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM
CST/ TODAY. 

* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO FOUR INCHES ARE
  FORECAST...WITH THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE
  OHIO RIVER. RESIDENTS CAN EXPECT SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS
  THAT WILL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT RUSH HOUR COMMUTE THIS MORNING.

* OTHER IMPACTS: IN ADDITION TO THE SLICK SPOTS...HEAVIER SNOW
  RATES WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ROADS AND BRIDGES WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. USE EXTRA CAUTION
IF TRAVELING.

&&

$$

KJD
628 
WWUS43 KLMK 171123
WSWLMK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
623 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014

...WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE REGION THIS MORNING...

.A SMALL BUT POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MERGE WITH A
LARGER SYSTEM AND COMBINE WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL AS COLD AIR TO GENERATE AN EARLY SEASON SNOWFALL.
THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

KYZ062>065-070>072-171230-
/O.CAN.KLMK.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-141117T1700Z/
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-
SIMPSON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...
FRANKLIN
623 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014 /523 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. 

WHILE LIGHT SNOW WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN WELL UNDER AN INCH AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES.

$$

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023-032-171700-
/O.CON.KLMK.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-141117T1700Z/
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
TRIMBLE KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...BEDFORD
623 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014 /523 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014/

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM
CST/ TODAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM
CST/ TODAY. 

* MAIN IMPACT: SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
  POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MOVES THROUGH.
  TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 3 TO 4
  INCHES...WITH SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES.

* OTHER IMPACTS: IN ADDITION TO THE SLICK SPOTS...HEAVIER SNOW
  RATES WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS...TRAVEL ONLY IF NECESSARY. SCATTERED
POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR.

&&

$$

KYZ024>031-033>043-045>049-053>057-061-171700-
/O.CON.KLMK.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-141117T1700Z/
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-
BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-
JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-
MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...
TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...
CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN
623 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014 /523 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
/11 AM CST/ TODAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM
CST/ TODAY. 

* MAIN IMPACT: ANY WINTRY MIX WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO LIGHT
  SNOW THIS MORNING...DROPPING AN ADDITIONAL INCH IN A FEW
  LOCATIONS. RESIDENTS CAN EXPECT SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS
  THAT WILL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT RUSH HOUR COMMUTE THIS MORNING.

* OTHER IMPACTS: IN ADDITION TO THE SLICK SPOTS...HEAVIER SNOW 
  RATES WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ROADS AND BRIDGES WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. USE EXTRA CAUTION
IF TRAVELING.

&&

$$

KD
350 
WWUS43 KLMK 171512
WSWLMK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1012 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014

...WINTER STORM WINDING DOWN...

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023-032-171615-
/O.CAN.KLMK.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-141117T1700Z/
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
TRIMBLE KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...BEDFORD
1012 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014 /912 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014/

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS THE WARNING AREA...HOWEVER SOME UNTREATED
ROADS WILL REMAIN IMPACTED. CONTINUE TO USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING
TODAY. 

$$

KYZ024>031-033-034-038-045-046-053-054-061-171615-
/O.CAN.KLMK.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-141117T1700Z/
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-SPENCER KY-NELSON KY-
WASHINGTON KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BUTLER KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...TAYLORSVILLE...BARDSTOWN...
SPRINGFIELD...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...MORGANTOWN
1012 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014 /912 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA...HOWEVER SOME UNTREATED
ROADS WILL REMAIN IMPACTED. CONTINUE TO USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING
TODAY.

$$

KYZ035>037-039>043-047>049-055>057-171700-
/O.CON.KLMK.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-141117T1700Z/
FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...
LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...
HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...
RICHMOND
1012 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY...

* MAIN IMPACT: LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.
  ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT EXCEED A HALF AN INCH.

* OTHER IMPACTS: IN ADDITION TO THE SLICK SPOTS...HEAVIER SNOW 
  RATES WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ROADS AND BRIDGES WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. USE EXTRA CAUTION
IF TRAVELING.

&&

$$

BJS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Nov 16, 9:22 AM EST, 3 hours 21 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 16, 9:22 AM EST, 3 hours 21 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
922 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 921 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2014

The 12z data are starting to roll in, and just wanted to give a heads
up on the decisions that are expected to be made once there is time
to analyze it. One decision will be whether or not to upgrade any
portions of the current Winter Weather Advisory to a Winter Storm
Warning. Secondly, a decision will have to be made on whether to
expand the advisory further south and east from its current
position.

The main problem that is making these decisions very difficult is
the warm layer around 700-800mb that is expected to be present over
a good portion of the CWA. Models continue to disagree on the
evolution of this warm layer, ultimately hurting confidence in
change over timing.

Do have much higher confidence in a strong frontogenetically forced
band (discussed in greater detail below) of snow moving through
toward the end of the event. Given the timing of this feature in
proximity to the morning commute may be enough to warrant a
southeastward extension of the advisory even if criteria doesn't
necessarily get met. After all, this is the first snow of the year
and it will come before and during the Monday morning commute.
Decisions coming when data is fully analyzed.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 337 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2014

...Accumulating Snows Likely Tonight into Monday...

Overview
--------
The short term period will feature a broad trough across much of the
CONUS.  A strong PV anomaly will dive southeast through this trough
today, inducing surface cyclogenesis across the Southeast.  Moisture
will spread north into the region today into tonight ahead of this
system, interacting with cold air and producing a period of wintry
precip across portions of the Ohio Valley.

Model Preference
----------------
Guidance continues to remain a bit in disagreement with the
placement of a potentially hefty snowband.  The NAM/SREF/Hi-res
members continue to be on the warm side of the envelope, both at the
surface and around 800mb with a warm nose aloft.  The GEM/GFS/ECMWF
are a bit cooler.  In these time ranges, prefer to lean more on the
higher-res models as they tend to do better within the boundary
layer and near-surface temperatures.  Aloft, however, the NAM has a
known bias in overdoing the warm nose, so will go with a GFS/NAM
blend for the warm nose aloft.

Sensible Weather and Impacts
----------------------------
Moisture will begin to stream into southern Kentucky today ahead of
the developing system across the Southeast.  There could be some
sleet mixing in initially with this activity, but temperatures aloft
will quickly warm enough to turn that precipitation to all rain by
the afternoon.  Most locations across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky will remain dry through the afternoon hours.

However, by late afternoon and into this evening, mid-level
frontogenesis will help lead to a band of snow developing across
portions of MO/IL, which may clip our far northern southern Indiana
counties by around 00Z tonight.  South of there, thermal profiles
show the column will be warm enough for all rain across the region.
However, thermal profiles will quickly begin to crash as the surface
low deepens and pulls in cooler air.  This will transition the rain
over to all snow, with the rain/snow line crossing the river between
11PM-1AM this evening.  As the cooler air is drawn into the system,
a deformation band will develop on the backside of this system in
the cooler air.  Forecast soundings depict a pretty intense
frontogenetical circulation developing along and just north of the
Ohio River, which will set the stage for a few hours of moderate to
locally heavy snowfall.  This band will move north, then pivot more
to the northeast as it begins to weaken.  Where this pivoting occurs
is the area most likely to see the heaviest amounts, possibly in
excess of 4 inches over a very narrow swath.  Right now, the best
potential for this narrow swath of heavy snow will be along and
north of the Ohio River.  Debated putting up a Winter Storm Warning
for a few counties in southern IN, but decided not to for a couple
reasons.  First, there is still considerable disagreement in model
thermal fields, especially the warm nose aloft.  Second,
temperatures rising into the 40s today and some locations starting
off as plain rain may lead to some initial melting of snow which may
cut down on totals.  Additionally, this event has been pretty well
advertised so people should be aware of the potential for
accumulating snowfall.  With all of these reasons in mind, will let
the day shift make any warning upgrades.

We did go ahead and add a few counties to the southeast of the
previous advisory based on the latest data.  However, will hold off
on areas even further to the east (including the Lex metro) as the
hi-res guidance suite really depicts the fgen band weakening as it
heads there.  Additionally, these areas will have warmer ground/road
temperatures, which coupled with weakening snowfall rates, may limit
impacts.  Therefore, will hold off on these areas to the east for
now.

Overall, have high confidence in accumulating snowfall north of the
Ohio River.  The cutoff in more substantial snow amounts will likely
reside between the east side of Louisville and Frankfort, thus this
area is where the highest uncertainty in amounts remains.

This system will push east by mid-morning on Monday. However,
low-level cold air advection will steepen low-level lapse rates and
should help to induce renewed snow shower development.  These do not
appear as if they will be heavy enough to drop any additional
accumulations.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 303 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2014

...Coldest Wind Chill Temperatures of the Season to Date on the
Way...

Deep upper troffing digging from eastern Canada into the United
States, with occasional small reinforcing shots moving through the
flow,  will keep us cold for much of the work week, with any
appreciable moderation in temperatures holding off until the weekend
and into next week. Most moisture associated with the upper trof
will stay bottled up to our north, so though it will be cold, it
will also be mostly on the drier side (not necessarily *completely*
dry), with some moisture return possible next weekend.

The models are a mess in the long term, especially Thursday through
Saturday.  The EC has had particularly bad run-to-run consistency.
Will lean more on the GFS for this package, as it is slightly less
inconsistent and has some meager support from the GEM.  The GFS is
also in some agreement with the CFS regarding the upper air pattern
as we lose the deep upper trof and transition to a more zonal flow
by the end of the forecast period.  Still, confidence continues to
be low in the long term.

The main story Monday night through Wednesday will be the cold.
Monday night and Tuesday night we will drop well into the teens.
Depending on the location and depth of any snowpack from tonight's
snowfall, a reading or two in the single digits may not be out of
the question in sheltered areas from southeast Indiana into the
northern Blue Grass. To make matters worse, we will have a tight
enough gradient to keep a breeze blowing each night, with wind
chills Tuesday morning 0 to 5 below in southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky, and 0 to 10 in southern Kentucky.  High temperatures on
Tuesday will only be in the lower and middle 20s, which is about 30
degrees colder than normal!

Wednesday we may be able to moderate up to around 40 in southwest
low level flow between high pressure over Dixie and a cold front
crossing the Great Lakes, but that will be offset by winds gusting
to 25 mph and afternoon wind chills mostly in the 20s.

As mentioned earlier, Thursday through Saturday are tough to figure
out right now.  Will lean toward the drier side of the forecast
envelope and keep PoPs small for now. Will bring MaxT's well up into
the 40s by Saturday with the anticipated pattern change.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 610 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2014

Conditions will deteriorate substantially today as a strong storm
system impacts the region.  Moisture will increase from south to
north today, spreading rain and lower cigs into all sites late this
afternoon into this evening.  This rain will transition to snow
through the night, first at KSDF and then shifting to KLEX and KBWG
towards Monday morning.  There looks to be a period of moderate to
heavy snow at KSDF in the 07-11Z timeframe, which will likely drop
vsbys to IFR or even LIFR at times.  This snow band does not look to
be as heavy as it passes through KLEX and KBWG, so will leave vsbys
around 3SM for now at these sites.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 8 PM EST /7 PM CST/ this evening to
     Noon EST /11 AM CST/ Monday FOR KYZ023-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ this evening
     to Noon EST /11 AM CST/ Monday FOR KYZ024>026-028>031-
     033>035-038.

IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 8 PM EST /7 PM CST/ this evening to
     Noon EST /11 AM CST/ Monday FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......13
Aviation.......KJD
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 16, 4:35 AM EST, 8 hours 8 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
435 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023-032-170945-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-TRIMBLE KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...BEDFORD
435 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014 /335 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EST /7 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING TO NOON EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX
THIS AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW THIS EVENING THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR SNOW AMOUNTS AND EXPECTED IMPACTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

VERY COLD AIR WILL INVADE THE REGION BEHIND TONIGHT'S STORM. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 0 TO 5 BELOW ZERO RANGE TUESDAY
MORNING...AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

KYZ024>026-028>031-033>035-038-170945-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SPENCER KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...BEAVER DAM...
ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...
LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...
TAYLORSVILLE
435 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014 /335 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING TO NOON EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX
THIS AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS AND EXPECTED IMPACTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

VERY COLD AIR WILL INVADE THE REGION BEHIND TONIGHT'S STORM. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 0 TO 5 BELOW ZERO RANGE TUESDAY
MORNING...AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

KYZ027-036-037-039>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-
170945-
GRAYSON KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-
BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-
JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-
MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-
LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-
MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEITCHFIELD...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...
LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...
BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...
HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...
MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...
FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...
COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
435 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014 /335 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX IN
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
RANGE FROM A TRACE TO UP TO AN INCH. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

VERY COLD AIR WILL INVADE THE REGION BEHIND TONIGHT'S STORM. WIND
CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

KD/13

The office that day

Everything else NWS Louisville, KY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 15, 9:40 PM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryLMKClark, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison, Jefferson and 4 more38 hr

Nearby

Winter Storm Warnings in Indiana, 2014Winter Storm Warnings in Kentucky, 2014Every winter storm warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.