Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
822 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 810 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2014

Axis of convection continues moving to the N-NE at this time with
embedded small bowing segments. Had a report of a 50 mph gust in
Dubois County. Over the last 30 minutes or so, leading reflectivity
gradient has weakened somewhat with a look that suggests more heavy
rain vs. severe cells. Nevertheless, with 0-1 km bulk shear showing
around 40 kts along the leading line, expect embedded small scale
bow echoes to continue and pose a wind damage and isolated brief
tornado threat over the next couple hours as the line moves through
the western portion of our forecast area. Widespread severe storms,
however, up and down the line is not expected at this time.

East of the line, activity is suppressed at this time in central KY,
but an area of showers and storms is moving north out of TN just
ahead of the line, so rain will increase over south-central KY over
the next hour or so, with the showers then lifting north across
central KY. East-central KY will remain dry for the balance of the
evening, with rain picking up in earnest overnight. Expect the
severe threat to gradually diminish later tonight, but the heavy
rain threat and, therefore, the Flash Flood Watch will continue.

Issued at 545 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2014

A quick update for trends over our eastern forecast area (including
east-central KY) for early this evening. Lower clouds have mixed and
cleared out for the time being, and conditions should remain dry for
the next few hours before rain and storm chances increase later
tonight. Therefore, have made some adjustments to sky and precip
chances for this evening. Remainder of forecast in tact.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2014

...Severe Weather and Flash Flooding Possible Tonight into Tuesday...

Weak subsidence and/or shortwave ridging behind early morning
showers and storms have provided a respite for most of central
Kentucky and southern Indiana. Clouds have thinned enough for temps
to reach the mid and upper 70s across most of the area, but so far
convection has failed to develop ahead of the main squall line,
which is just reaching the Mississippi River.

SPC mesoanalysis shows instability and shear parameters coming
together ahead of the line over western Kentucky. Most of the
high-resolution models advertise the squall line pushing into the
I-65 corridor after midnight, albeit in a weakening state. However,
most of these models are 2-3 hrs behind the curve with respect to
the ongoing squall line. Believe that the only way for this timing
to verify is for one or more surface waves to develop and ride north
along the line to slow it down. Will key on a couple hours either
side of midnight for the severe threat, mainly west of I-65. Timing
could skew even earlier if we see renegade cells developing ahead of
the line, but that is looking more confined to the Deep South.
Damaging winds will be the main SVR threat, but brief tornado
spin-ups remain on the table, especially if there are any discrete
convective elements to be ingested by the line.

Precipitable water values in the 99th percentile for October will
provide plenty of juice for heavy rain, and this is especially
concerning with a weakening line of storms almost parallel to the
upper flow. Heavy rain potential is certainly on the table, and we
expect widespread rainfall totals pushing 2 inches, with local 3+
inch amounts likely. Rainfall amounts the last 7 days have been
above normal, especially north of I-64, as well as south of the
Bluegrass Parkway. Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect as
localized short-fuse flooding issues are likely anywhere that the
heaviest rain falls.

Potential still exists for strong thunderstorms along the surface
front on Tuesday. The low-level jet will be shunted off to the east,
but strong dynamics and sufficient moisture could support another
line of convection. Winds aloft remain just strong enough that
damaging gusts could still be mixed down in the more vigorous
showers or storms early in the day.

Main upper low swings through Tuesday night, and will support a
low-end chance POP. With much less deep moisture available, this
looks like a low-QPF event. Min temps will be much cooler than last
night or tonight, but still a few degrees above climo.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2014

The long term will begin with a closed upper low over the Midwest
bringing multiple rounds of shallow convection to the region Wed
through Thurs.  Model soundings do indicate a decent ribbon of low
level instability and decent low level lapse rates both Wed and
Thurs afternoons, so can't rule out some moderate showers or perhaps
even a rumble of thunder each afternoon/evening.  Will continue with
rain showers for now though and evaluate more in coming forecasts.
Cloudy, rainy conditions in the cold upper low will limit high temps
to upper 50s and lower 60s both Wed/Thu with low temps in the upper
40s and lower 50s.

We'll see dry weather and sunshine for Fri/Sat as the upper flow
becomes more zonal and weak sfc high pressure arrives at the sfc.
The warmest day of the week looks to be Fri with highs in the lower
70s.  The clearest, coolest night of the long term looks to be Sat
night into Sun morning with low temps in the lower 40s.

Models then diverge on the upper level pattern for the beginning of
next week. Upper ridging looks to move into the central CONUS with a
shortwave trough preceding it and possibly bringing us some rain
showers.  Will continue low chances for precip Sun night-Mon but
have low forecast confidence at this point.  Temperatures look to be
below normal for the first portion of next week.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 730 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2014

Axis of thunderstorms continues to move swiftly to the north-
northeast this evening. There are small bowing segments along it
meaning localized wind damage is possible with the strongest cells.
Timing the line suggests it reaches BWG between 00 and 01z, SDF
around 03z, and LEX roughly around 06z. Expect gusty southeast winds
before the line. As the line passes, wind speeds at the 3 airports
will be predicated on whether one of the bowing segments passes
overhead or not. Isolated brief severe wind gusts are possible, but
more likely, gusts will up to 30 kts.

After the initial line passes, expect continued rain and embedded
convection with generally MVFR ceilings later tonight. Rain will
diminish Tuesday morning to scattered showers before a wind shift
changes winds from south-southeast to south-southwest. Showers will
then end after the wind shift as the area gets dry slotted aloft,
with lower VFR or perhaps marginally MVFR broken clouds occurring.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Tuesday evening FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-
     053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Tuesday evening FOR INZ076>079-083-084-
     089>092.

&&

Update.........TWF
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......TWF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
342 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-141945-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
342 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014 /242 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND WEST
OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR...MAINLY A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF
MIDNIGHT.

DAMAGING WINDS...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WHICH RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING IN FLOOD
PRONE AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS LIKELY IN THE AREAS THAT RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER SHOULD PREPARE FOR ACTIVATION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

RAS/AMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
829 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014

INZ076-084-089-140100-
CRAWFORD IN-ORANGE IN-PERRY IN-
829 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY
RAIN...AND 50 MPH WINDS...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
PERRY...ORANGE...AND INTO CRAWFORD COUNTY...

AT 724 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTH OF
SHOALS TO 12 MILES WEST OF ENGLISH TO 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF TELL
CITY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES...AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  PAOLI...
  ENGLISH...
  BONDS AND SCARLET...
  YOUNGS CREEK AND WEST FORK...
  SULPHUR AND PINE VALLEY...
  SWITZER CROSSROADS AND STAMPERS CREEK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 8636 3824 8636 3808 8658 3840 8666
      3840 8668 3869 8668
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 225DEG 48KT 3859 8671 3836 8663
          3810 8666

JSD

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