Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
248 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2014

Weak convergence over the Pennyrile region of Kentucky was just
enough to focus the development of isolated/scattered thunderstorms
fairly quickly after convective temps were reached. Stronger storms
and better coverage are evident from east-central Illinois into the
far western sections of Kentucky. Mid-level flow has backed quite a
bit from this weekend, so expect the T-storms to our west to make
fairly limited eastward progress.

Expect coverage to increase over central Kentucky and southern
Indiana in the late afternoon hours, with convection expanding into
the Bluegrass. Still scattered coverage so current 30-40 POPs look
good. Beyond the first few hours, however, forecast confidence drops
off. Synoptic-scale models continue to appear overdone with precip,
while the higher-resolution models struggle a bit to get a handle on
ongoing storms. Will hold onto at least a slight chance through the
night, with chances ramping up to near 50% west of I-65 prior to
daybreak Tuesday.

MCV over the southern Plains will push ENE across the Ohio Valley
late Tuesday. Will increase POPs to likely, especially for the
afternoon. Any more organized heavy rainfall will likely be to our
north, but with high PWAT values we could see locally heavy rainfall
out of the stronger T-storms. Dynamics are still quite weak and
freezing levels quite high, so SVR potential is limited to winds as
pulse storms collapse.

Precip chances will diminish Tuesday night as the axis of that MCV
departs to the east. However, will depict more of a gradual taper in
POPs than a sharp cutoff, as the models are not as vigorous with
this system as previous runs were.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2014

Wednesday will feature a flat broad 500mb trough centered over the
Great Lakes. Cooler air associated with this however will stay
restricted to Michigan and Wisconsin. Weak low pressure associated
with a frontal boundary will lie over southern Ohio early Wednesday,
and will pull away northeast during the afternoon. Slightly cooler
and less humid air will arrive Wednesday as surface winds are
forecast to shift to light northwesterly by the end of the day.
Believe that Wednesday and Wednesday will stay dry, with seasonably
warm June temperatures of mid to upper 80s for highs and mid to
upper 60s for lows.

A weak mid-level wave moving across central Missouri will bring
southwesterly flow and increasing PWATs back into the Lower Ohio
Valley beginning Thursday afternoon. The GFS is much weaker than the
NAM in developing a rudimentary surface low late Thursday across
southern Illinois. With the Gulf open and seasonably high PWATs in
the area, scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible
for a good stretch of days, from Thursday through at least Sunday.
Daily high temperatures will average in the upper 80s to around 90.
Nights will stay muggy this weekend with lows near 70.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2014

Biggest challenge in this TAF set remains the timing of
thunderstorms. Cu field has blossomed mainly west of BWG and SDF,
and we have seen a couple isolated cells not far from BWG. Will
initialize with VCTS there, and perhaps SDF depending on how the cu
field evolves before issuance time. Will take until late afternoon
for convection to expand into LEX. Coverage will be limited and the
chances of a direct impact on any of the terminals is low enough
that we will stick with VCTS/CB and keep prevailing VFR. Air mass is
juicy enough that storm chances could continue well into the
evening.

Low-confidence forecast overnight as the GFS is showing the best
rain chances beginning around midnight. However, if
afternoon/evening convection should materialize, that would support
a lull overnight. Given that it is starting to develop at the
moment, will just go with mid-level debris clouds for most of the
overnight.

Cu field should develop quite a bit earlier Tuesday given
increasingly favorable dynamics and increasing moisture. Included
VCTS from late morning onward mostly as a heads-up. Confidence is
moderate at best that storms would get into BWG/LEX before 18Z. Much
more confident at SDF with the time window extending to 00Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........RAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
251 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-241900-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
251 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014 /151 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ANY OF THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

RAS/JSD

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