Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
318 PM EDT Fri Jun 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Jun 20 2014

Warm and humid air mass remains in place with plenty of boundaries
draped across central Kentucky. However none of them have fired yet,
even though convective temps have been reached and storms have
developed to our north, east, and west.

Main boundary to be concerned with is the one over southern Indiana,
roughly from Vincennes to between Cincinnati and Dayton. If the
storms that have developed along this boundary can organize there
will be a better potential for strong wind gusts as they make some
headway into the Bluegrass region where DCAPE is higher. Otherwise,
there are storms over western Kentucky that could make their way
into our western CWA, and the continued possibility of development
overhead. Will carry a pre-first period to include likely POPs for
the rest of the afternoon, but expect more scattered coverage by
sunset. Will see storms continue to diminish through the early
evening. Organized SVR threat is minimal, but with moderate
instability and slow storm motion, standard pulse threats of gusty
(sub-severe) winds and heavy rainfall are in play.

Slightly drier air and mid-level capping will make for a bit less
humid day on Saturday. Highs will still reach the mid/upper 80s but
dewpoints should drop into the mid 60s. Slight chance POPs will
mainly be restricted to areas south of the Parkways.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Jun 20 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature rather weak upper-level flow across much of the CONUS, with
a ridge holding across the southern CONUS, and weak PV anomalies
riding across the central and northern CONUS (a rather seasonal
pattern given we are heading into late June).  This regime will
allow weak systems to push through the Ohio Valley, bringing chances
for precipitation along with a few shots of some slightly cooler
air.

Sunday will likely be one of the driest days in the extended period,
as the region will be situated to the north of a weak surface
front.  Drier air will push into the region behind this front,
helping to push PWATs down to around 1.3-1.5 inches.  Given the
intrusion of drier air, along with no consistent signals of any
upper-level ascent, will continue with a dry forecast Sunday.
Soundings do not show much in the way of a mid-level cap (especially
across the northwest CWA), so cannot rule out a stray storm or two
developing along differential heating boundaries, but think coverage
will be too low to warrant a mention in the forecast at this time.

Precipitation chances will only slightly increase on Monday, and
still think most will stay dry.  However, PWATs will increase to
around 1.8 inches by Monday afternoon as deep-layer moisture begins
to return.  The region will still be lacking any significant forcing
for ascent, so expect coverage in the 20-30% range, with the best
precip potential expected west of I-65.

The main system of the long term period will push through Tuesday
into Tuesday night.  A weak trough and an associated surface low
will swing a weak cold front through the region.  Given the moist
and unstable airmass, convergence along this front should be more
than enough to develop thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Therefore, will continue with likely pops in this timeframe.  With
PWATs pushing 2 inches, these storms will likely drop heavy rainfall
in a short amount of time, which could lead to some localized
flooding.

The forecast becomes a bit more challenging as we head into the
middle of next week, as guidance is struggling with just how far
south the front will push and where it will stall.  In these
situations, guidance tends to try and push front further south than
they actually get in reality, thus will lean toward the front
stalling somewhere across south-central KY.  This means there will
be daily chances for precipitation along this boundary as it wobbles
somewhere across south-central KY.

Temperatures Sunday will be in the mid 80s in the Northern
Bluegrass, but in the lower 90s across west-central KY.  Monday will
be even warmer and the heat index will be on the rise as low-level
moisture increases.  Look for highs Monday in the lower 90s with
heat indices in the upper 90s.  For the remainder of the period,
temperatures will be slightly cooler as highs drop back down into
the mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Fri Jun 20 2014

Warm and humid air mass and a boundary-rich environment will support
decent thunderstorm coverage this afternoon. Will watch convective
trends through issuance time and make a last-minute call on whether
to initialize any or all of the terminals with VCTS. Confidence is
not very high regarding timing of any direct impact on any of the
terminals, but there will be storms around later this afternoon.

Expect most of the convection to die down just after sunset, with
only lingering debris clouds overnight. The one fly in the ointment
will be LEX, where decent rains occurred last night and there is
greater potential for early morning fog/stratus.

Surface front will drop south across Kentucky overnight, with
slightly drier air filtering in. However the effects won't be
noticeable until daytime heating/mixing can take hold around
mid-morning Saturday. NW winds should be around 6 kt, given the lack
of a strong high behind the front. Did include a few hrs of
fuel-alternate MVFR ceilings in LEX beginning around daybreak
Saturday. However, this is a fairly low-confidence forecast, mainly
included because the GFS is picking up on the low ceilings better
than the NAM (which is one of the scenarios in which the GFS is
usually on to something) and because LEX had brief but heavy
rainfall on Thursday. Of course, this part of the forecast is
subject to significant change if the precip patterns this afternoon
stray too far from the going forecast.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........RAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
322 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-211930-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
322 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014 /222 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS
AROUND 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE OUTLOOK AREA MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
STALLS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. ANY OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

RAS/KD

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