Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
318 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2014

Isolated thunderstorms have popped-up across portions of central KY
this afternoon and are pulsing up and down very quickly. For
example, a storm appeared along the Woodford/Fayette county line and
within half an hour, had already dissipated. Generally speaking, any
storms that develop through the remainder of the afternoon will
mirror this nature, although some may be sustained for a just a bit
longer of a period of time. Have continued to expect scattered
convection to develop as the afternoon wears on but so far, the
hi-res models appear to be overdoing the anticipated convection
coverage. The focus should still be across northern KY, southern IN,
and the Bluegrass region where the better instability and moisture
lie. With the lack of decent wind fields, sub-severe storms are
expected but with DCAPE values exceeding 1000 (according to SPC's
meso analysis), could still see some good wind gusts out of any
stronger cells. Taking into account the relatively high moisture
content and the slow movement of the storms, the stronger cells
could also contain very heavy rainfall in a short period of time.
Again, below severe criteria is anticipated however.

There is a frontal boundary that is currently laid out across
central IN and will sag south over the next 24-36 hours. This leaves
the door open for slight storm chances to continue overnight but
confidence is relatively low in seeing too much activity. Couldn't
remove the mention altogether given that there was some
overnight/early morning convection this morning and had less to work
with versus tonight. By tomorrow, should have the best chances so
far this week for thunderstorms across much of the forecast area,
thanks to the front, particularly during the afternoon hours with
diurnal heating. While this convection is anticipated to wane in
coverage after sunset tomorrow night, chances will still persist
with the weak fropa.

Overnight lows tonight will be similar to last night, struggling to
drop below the 70 degree mark. For tomorrow, highs should be
slightly cooler, only reaching the upper 80s to near 90 degrees as
cloud cover potentially limits heating. If the cloud cover settles
overhead earlier in the day than currently forecast, may need to
drop back the temps another degree or two. Under mostly cloudy skies
and the fropa tomorrow night, temps should be a few degrees cooler
than tonight but the real change won't be felt until this weekend.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2014

Majority of the latest guidance is a touch faster with the front
pushing through the region early Saturday.  It appears that Saturday
will be a mostly dry, but warm day.  An increase in upper level
ridging is expected to continue Saturday night and into Sunday which
should result in mostly dry conditions across the region.  Generally
stuck to bias-corrected raw guidance through these period with
daytime highs in the upper 80s on Saturday and in the upper 80s to
lower 90s on Sunday. Overnight lows will remain quite mild with
upper 60s to lower 70s.  Slightly warmer overnight minimums are
expected in the more urbanized regions.

By Monday, the guidance is in agreement with bringing the next
mid-level wave into the region from the west.  With the surface
ridge working off to the east, we'll see moisture increase across
the region with the threat of isolated-scattered convection
developing.  Convection looks to increase markedly by Tuesday as a
cold front pushes into the region.  Have kept high chance PoPs in
the forecast here.  Temperatures Monday should warm into the upper
80s to the lower 90s with middle to upper 80s expected on Tuesday.
Tuesday's temperatures will be greatly impacted by the extent of
cloud cover and expected precipitation.  Lows will generally be in
the upper 60s.

The typical divergence in the model guidance shows up by Wednesday
as the models are having trouble predicting how far south the cold
front will advance.  It appears that given the recent pattern and
typical model performance out past day 5 that the models are likely
to aggressive in punching the cold front through the Ohio Valley.
While the operational models show the more progressive solutions,
there a variety of ensemble solutions that are a bit slower.  Thus,
we are leaning to a less optimistic solution here with the front
hanging up in our region Wednesday and Thursday.  With the front in
the area, diurnally driven thunderstorms are likely.  The draped out
front along with a zonal flow aloft may result in repeated rounds of
storms that could give us some beneficial rainfall...though in some
areas it could be a bit excessive.  So we'll need to keep an eye on
that over the next few days. Given the expected frontal boundary in
the vicinity, have lowered temperatures slightly for Wednesday and
Thursday.  Daytime highs should average in the lower to middle 80s
with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2014

Thunderstorms are popping up across portions of central KY this
afternoon in a very broken line stretching from in between LEX to
BWG. There will be increased chances for scattered thunderstorm
activity as the day wears on and therefore continued VCTS mention
for all three terminals. Due to the pulse nature of the storms, have
foregone any tempo groups, especially considering the uncertainty of
whether or not convection will directly impact the terminals. Will
update with an amendment as necessary.

Winds will be at their strongest through this afternoon before dying
off after sunset tonight. The general direction will vary from out
of the W to SW throughout much of the TAF period, right around 10
knots or so through this evening then dropping below 5 knots
overnight. Any storm that comes within range of the terminals could
cause locally higher gusts and quick wind shifts.

For the pre-dawn hours on Friday, have continued mention of
haze/light fog for LEX and BWG but given the cloud cover expected to
linger through the overnight hours, don't have too much confidence
of this panning out, especially if rain doesn't fall in the terminal
areas today. Tomorrow afternoon will see increased chances for
thunderstorms across central KY, more so than today as a front
approaches from the north.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........lg
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........lg

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
320 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

KYZ057-191940-
MADISON KY-
320 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND 40
MPH WINDS...

AT 315 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NICHOLASVILLE...AND MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES...AND GUSTY
WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  RICHMOND...
  MILLION AND CROW VALLEY...
  BLUE GRASS...
  REDHOUSE AND HILLCREST...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 75 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
83 AND 97.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3764 8426 3778 8450 3780 8448 3780 8446
      3783 8448 3785 8447 3784 8445 3787 8441
      3784 8439 3785 8437 3788 8437 3788 8422
      3787 8420
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 281DEG 15KT 3783 8441

RJS