Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
220 AM EDT Thu May 22 2014

...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu May 22 2014

Svr T-storm Watch #169 has been extended through 4am EST as a strong
to severe complex of storms moves through southern Indiana and
northern KY to the northeast of Louisville.  These storms are
capable of 55-65 mph winds and up to quarter size hail.

The next concern will be flooding as storms continue to persist
downstream and ride along the same boundary over southern Indiana
and northern Kentucky.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed May 21 2014

...Severe Storms with Strong Wind Gusts Possible This Evening...

Storms are firing this afternoon over north central Indiana and are
heading quickly to the southeast. Recent AMDAR sounding from SDF
shows strong cap still in place over the Ohio Valley.  However this
cap is expected to weaken over the next few hours, allowing storms
to our north to make it into southern Indiana and north central
Kentucky this evening.  The storms should develop further across
Indiana and Ohio late this afternoon and possibly gel into a linear
MCS that would dive southeastward.  As a result, strong gusty winds
will be the main threat with the storms, with large hail in the
strongest storms also possible.  The best chances for storms will be
between 5pm and 11pm from southern Indiana into north central
Kentucky, though that timing could change if a bowing squall line
forms and brings convection south more quickly.  The storms should
weaken and be shunted more to the east as they attempt to cross
Kentucky and run into more persistent capping associated with an
upper ridge centered over the lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf
states.

Behind the evening storms, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be possible through the night as we remain slightly unstable and a
cold front approaches from the northwest, reaching the Ohio River
around dawn.  Any overnight activity is not expected to be severe.

Thursday the cold front will drop from the Ohio River to just north
of the Tennessee border.  Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will
likely pop over southern Kentucky as a result. A few storms could
reach severe limits with gusty winds and perhaps some hail.

Any storms in the south Thursday afternoon will dissipate quickly
with sunset, leaving us with quiet conditions for the rest of
Thursday night.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed May 21 2014

The 12 UTC models are in reasonable agreement thru the forecast
period showing a rather meridional 500 mb pattern with a trough over
the northeast U.S., ridge in the Plains states, and trough over the
western states. This pattern is forecast to shift slowly east during
the period. There are, however, evolutionary differences that show
up with the western trough/upper low as it heads east into the
Plains next week, which has an effect on precipitation chances by
mid next week over the Ohio Valley.

At the start of the period on Friday, the surface front should be
over TN, which will bring in cooler and less humid air courtesy of
surface high pressure to our north. Dry weather is expected with
highs in the mid 70s over the Bluegrass to around 80 in west and
southwest sections of central KY. The high pressure center will keep
fair weather entrenched over south-central IN and central KY for
much of the Memorial Day weekend.

Saturday will be dry with continued relatively low humidity values
with afternoon highs in the upper 70s east to lower 80s west after
morning lows in the 50s in most locations. On Sunday, the 500 mb
ridge axis over the nation's midsection will slowly push east
causing the surface high to move to our east. As a result, warmer
and gradually more humid air will begin to move in Sunday afternoon
and especially Monday (Memorial Day). Models hint that a little more
moisture could try to move through the ridge into the lower Ohio
Valley Sunday afternoon/evening, but will maintain a dry forecast at
this time. Highs Sunday will be in the 80s, while temperatures
Monday afternoon should peak in the upper 80s in many areas and
perhaps touch 90 in some spots as humidity levels rise as well. It
will be a very summerlike holiday.

After Monday, the trough/upper low to our west shows more
discrepancy in the models, particularly in the 12z GFS. The GFS
again tries to drop the low from the central Plains to the lower
Mississippi Valley as it swings another strong shortwave south out
of Canada into the eastern Great Lakes. This model scenario has been
fluctuating the last few runs. On the other hand, the 12z runs of
the Canadian GEM and ECMWF are more consistent with themselves and
each other, keeping the low moving slowly east as it becomes cut off
from the main flow aloft farther north.

This scenario is favored and would result in an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms over our western forecast area by Tuesday
afternoon, with better rainfall coverage potentially Wednesday and
Thursday (especially afternoons and evenings) when the upper low
should be just to our west with a persistent moist southerly flow
ahead of it (assuming a correct ECMWF solution). Going with this
scenario implies slightly cooler high temperatures by the middle of
next week due to more clouds and rainfall. Nevertheless, it will
remain rather humid during this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 110 AM EDT Thu May 22 2014

A complex of thunderstorms will move across southern Indiana and
eventually the northern Bluegrass Region during the early morning
hours.

BWG will have mostly clear skies and VFR TAFs overnight and through
Thursday morning. By afternoon isolated thunderstorms may affect
BWG. However, confidence and coverage of storms is limited, and will
keep thunderstorms out of the BWG TAF through late Thursday.

For SDF, feel that the bulk of these thunderstorms will stay north
of the terminal. If any convection does affect SDF it will be a
pop-up storm of a scattered nature.

Scattered thunderstorms will affect LEX from time to time through
the early morning hours. Attempting to time individual storms into
LEX will be difficult, but the best opportunity for storms in LEX
will be between 7 and 10z.

Outside of any convection, VFR conditions are anticipated.

Surface winds will stay light from the southwest through 12z, then
will veer to northwesterly at around 5 to 10 mph by around 18z this
afternoon. By midnight light northeasterly winds of around 5kt will
develop.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Mesoscale......AMS
Short Term.....13
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......JSD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
224 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

INZ076>079-083-084-090>092-KYZ025-028>043-045>049-053>057-065>067-
230630-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-MEADE KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-
BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-
JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-
MADISON KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...JEFFERSONVILLE...
BRANDENBURG...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...MOUNT WASHINGTON...
SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...
SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...
LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...
BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...
HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD
224 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014 /124 AM CDT THU MAY 22 2014/

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 169 IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/
EARLY THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...EARLY THIS MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. THE GREATEST
THREATS ARE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. MINOR FLOODING MAY ALSO BECOME A THREAT IN AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCE REPEATED THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE BLUEGRASS PARKWAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OBSERVED THROUGH
THURSDAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

INZ089-KYZ023-024-026-027-061>064-070>078-081-082-230630-
PERRY IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-
BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-
CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TELL CITY...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...
GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...
BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
124 AM CDT THU MAY 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT SAGS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
BE STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OBSERVED THROUGH
THURSDAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

13/TWF/AMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
122 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0111 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SCOTTSBURG              38.69N  85.78W
05/22/2014                   SCOTT              IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN COUNTYWIDE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1400591

MRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
145 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

INZ090>092-KYZ029>031-033-034-038-039-220630-
ANDERSON KY-BULLITT KY-CLARK IN-FLOYD IN-HARRISON IN-HENRY
KY-JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-SHELBY KY-SPENCER KY-
145 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN...
HALF INCH HAIL...AND 50 MPH WINDS...

AT 143 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LA GRANGE TO
JEFFERSONVILLE TO 13 MILES NORTH OF CORYDON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...HALF INCH HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45
TO 50 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  VALLEY STATION...
  ST. MATTHEWS...
  SHIVELY...
  PLEASURE RIDGE PARK...
  OKOLONA...
  GEORGETOWN AND FLOYDSBURG...
  LOUISVILLE BOWMAN FIELD...
  CHESTNUT GROVE AND FISHERVILLE...
  LOUISVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND ROUTT...

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 121 AND 137.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 64 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 10 AND 8.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 71 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 1 AND 9.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

&&

LAT...LON 3819 8500 3816 8501 3813 8502 3812 8497
      3808 8493 3795 8528 3794 8539 3799 8549
      3797 8552 3807 8595 3836 8607 3831 8548
      3840 8514
TIME...MOT...LOC 0545Z 319DEG 38KT 3841 8540 3829 8572
          3837 8619

AMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
204 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

INZ092-KYZ030>033-220635-
CLARK IN-HENRY KY-JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-
204 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN...
HALF INCH HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER
OLDHAM...TRIMBLE...AND HENRY COUNTIES...

AT 202 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MADISON TO 6 MILES
WEST OF SHELBYVILLE TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD  THESE STORMS
WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 25 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...HALF INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  PROSPECT...
  NEW CASTLE...
  LA GRANGE...
  BEDFORD...
  SLIGO AND TARASCON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3862 8522 3859 8521 3860 8511 3859 8507
      3857 8507 3857 8501 3855 8500 3851 8502
      3852 8498 3849 8499 3848 8496 3839 8514
      3830 8545 3831 8567 3859 8546 3859 8543
      3861 8544 3866 8540
TIME...MOT...LOC 0603Z 270DEG 0KT 3872 8532 3822 8532
          3772 8532

JSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
206 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 AM     TSTM WND GST     6 NW LA GRANGE          38.46N  85.46W
05/22/2014  M55 MPH          OLDHAM             KY   MESONET

            A 55 MPH WIND GUST WAS MEASURED BY THE KENTUCKY MESONET
            IN SHELBY COUNTY

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1400592

JSD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
219 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

KYZ034-035-038>040-220645-
ANDERSON KY-FRANKLIN KY-SHELBY KY-SPENCER KY-WOODFORD KY-
219 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...PENNY
SIZED HAIL...AND 50 MPH WINDS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SHELBY...AND INTO FRANKLIN AND ANDERSON COUNTIES...

AT 216 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF NEW CASTLE TO 9 MILES EAST OF SHELBYVILLE TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
TAYLORSVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...PENNY SIZED HAIL...AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  FRANKFORT...
  LAWRENCEBURG...
  CAPITAL CITY AIRPORT AND BROADVILLE MANOR...
  KLONDYKE AND BIG EDDY...
  CLIFTON AND SLICKWAY...
  WOODLAKE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3823 8473 3821 8473 3807 8481 3791 8506
      3806 8527 3817 8506 3830 8502
TIME...MOT...LOC 0617Z 293DEG 40KT 3831 8502 3816 8505
          3806 8524

JSD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
235 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

INZ076>078-090-092-220720-
CLARK IN-HARRISON IN-ORANGE IN-SCOTT IN-WASHINGTON IN-
235 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN...AND HALF INCH HAIL
WITH 40 MPH WINDS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS ORANGE...WASHINGTON AND
INTO CLARK COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA...

AT 229 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SALEM TO 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SHOALS...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

TORRENTIAL RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES...AND HALF INCH HAIL...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  PAOLI...
  SALEM...
  SOUTH BOSTON AND STAMPERS CREEK...
  FARABEE AND FRENCH LICK...
  TROTTER CROSSING AND CHAMBERSBURG...
  NEW PEKIN AND BLUE RIVER...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3841 8570 3841 8597 3842 8603 3841 8603
      3840 8625 3842 8626 3842 8631 3840 8631
      3840 8666 3845 8669 3869 8669 3869 8632
      3873 8631 3874 8590
TIME...MOT...LOC 0634Z 337DEG 16KT 3859 8610 3859 8670

JSD