Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Louisville, KY

174 
WWUS53 KLMK 220155
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
955 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

KYC021-045-137-155-220205-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0073.000000T0000Z-140522T0200Z/
LINCOLN KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-CASEY KY-
955 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CASEY...SOUTHWESTERN BOYLE...
EASTERN MARION AND SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1000
PM EDT/900 PM CDT/...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
 HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3740 8509 3741 8508 3744 8511 3761 8520
      3758 8493 3729 8465 3716 8482 3711 8491
      3710 8494
TIME...MOT...LOC 0155Z 336DEG 61KT 3711 8481

$$

SCHOETTMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
711 PM EDT Wed May 21 2014

...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Wed May 21 2014

Broken line of storms extends from southeast Indiana back into
east-central Illinois, and is making enough headway to the SE to
clip Jefferson County in Indiana and Trimble County in KY.
Development along the outflow to help build the line SW has been
limited by a strong cap around 750-800mb.

However, these storms have had little difficulty putting out wind
gusts close to 50 mph, perhaps even stronger in between observation
sites. Also, as this activity tries to edge southward into Kentucky,
the dynamics are better given stronger mid-level winds.

Hail threat is already in the process of evolving into more of a
wind threat, but can't rule out SVR hail north of I-64. Wind threat
will be the main player for most of the evening, but that could
evolve into a heavy rain threat later and location will depend
heavily on where the line hangs up parallel to the flow aloft.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed May 21 2014

...Severe Storms with Strong Wind Gusts Possible This Evening...

Storms are firing this afternoon over north central Indiana and are
heading quickly to the southeast. Recent AMDAR sounding from SDF
shows strong cap still in place over the Ohio Valley.  However this
cap is expected to weaken over the next few hours, allowing storms
to our north to make it into southern Indiana and north central
Kentucky this evening.  The storms should develop further across
Indiana and Ohio late this afternoon and possibly gel into a linear
MCS that would dive southeastward.  As a result, strong gusty winds
will be the main threat with the storms, with large hail in the
strongest storms also possible.  The best chances for storms will be
between 5pm and 11pm from southern Indiana into north central
Kentucky, though that timing could change if a bowing squall line
forms and brings convection south more quickly.  The storms should
weaken and be shunted more to the east as they attempt to cross
Kentucky and run into more persistent capping associated with an
upper ridge centered over the lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf
states.

Behind the evening storms, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be possible through the night as we remain slightly unstable and a
cold front approaches from the northwest, reaching the Ohio River
around dawn.  Any overnight activity is not expected to be severe.

Thursday the cold front will drop from the Ohio River to just north
of the Tennessee border.  Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will
likely pop over southern Kentucky as a result. A few storms could
reach severe limits with gusty winds and perhaps some hail.

Any storms in the south Thursday afternoon will dissipate quickly
with sunset, leaving us with quiet conditions for the rest of
Thursday night.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed May 21 2014

The 12 UTC models are in reasonable agreement thru the forecast
period showing a rather meridional 500 mb pattern with a trough over
the northeast U.S., ridge in the Plains states, and trough over the
western states. This pattern is forecast to shift slowly east during
the period. There are, however, evolutionary differences that show
up with the western trough/upper low as it heads east into the
Plains next week, which has an effect on precipitation chances by
mid next week over the Ohio Valley.

At the start of the period on Friday, the surface front should be
over TN, which will bring in cooler and less humid air courtesy of
surface high pressure to our north. Dry weather is expected with
highs in the mid 70s over the Bluegrass to around 80 in west and
southwest sections of central KY. The high pressure center will keep
fair weather entrenched over south-central IN and central KY for
much of the Memorial Day weekend.

Saturday will be dry with continued relatively low humidity values
with afternoon highs in the upper 70s east to lower 80s west after
morning lows in the 50s in most locations. On Sunday, the 500 mb
ridge axis over the nation's midsection will slowly push east
causing the surface high to move to our east. As a result, warmer
and gradually more humid air will begin to move in Sunday afternoon
and especially Monday (Memorial Day). Models hint that a little more
moisture could try to move through the ridge into the lower Ohio
Valley Sunday afternoon/evening, but will maintain a dry forecast at
this time. Highs Sunday will be in the 80s, while temperatures
Monday afternoon should peak in the upper 80s in many areas and
perhaps touch 90 in some spots as humidity levels rise as well. It
will be a very summerlike holiday.

After Monday, the trough/upper low to our west shows more
discrepancy in the models, particularly in the 12z GFS. The GFS
again tries to drop the low from the central Plains to the lower
Mississippi Valley as it swings another strong shortwave south out
of Canada into the eastern Great Lakes. This model scenario has been
fluctuating the last few runs. On the other hand, the 12z runs of
the Canadian GEM and ECMWF are more consistent with themselves and
each other, keeping the low moving slowly east as it becomes cut off
from the main flow aloft farther north.

This scenario is favored and would result in an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms over our western forecast area by Tuesday
afternoon, with better rainfall coverage potentially Wednesday and
Thursday (especially afternoons and evenings) when the upper low
should be just to our west with a persistent moist southerly flow
ahead of it (assuming a correct ECMWF solution). Going with this
scenario implies slightly cooler high temperatures by the middle of
next week due to more clouds and rainfall. Nevertheless, it will
remain rather humid during this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 705 PM EDT Wed May 21 2014

Main issue is timing of thunderstorms in SDF and LEX this evening.
Line of storms over southern Indiana is making slow but steady
southeastward progress, aided by limited development on the outflow.

Best chance for storms in both SDF and LEX will be from 01-04Z, and
upstream obs suggest that 40 kt gusts are likely. Brief IFR
visibilities are expected in the rain cores from these storms. Main
source of uncertainty is the potential for development along the
outflow, and will account for this by initializing VCTS.

Storms should clear out after midnight, but that is where it turns
to a low-confidence forecast. Surface front will hang up somewhere
over Kentucky, and a weak disturbance will likely ride along the
west-to-east oriented boundary. High-resolution models are trending
farther south and west with this boundary, which would keep any
renewed precip out of SDF and LEX. BWG would seem to have a better
chance, but probabilities there are still too low to include precip
in the TAF.

Lighter WNW winds expected on Thursday, with just enough Cu to
generate a barely-VFR ceiling. Can't rule out a stray storm at BWG
but do not expect enough of a restriction to go prevailing with it.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Mesoscale......
Short Term.....13
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......RAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
343 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-221945-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
343 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014 /243 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING. AS IT
DOES SO...THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND
ILLINOIS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

THE BEST TIMING FOR STORMS WILL BE 5PM TO 11PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
SAGS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. A FEW OF THE STORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY MAY BE STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OBSERVED THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
906 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0906 PM     HAIL             RICHMOND                37.74N  84.29W
05/21/2014  M1.00 INCH       MADISON            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1400571

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
908 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0853 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E NICHOLASVILLE       37.88N  84.56W
05/21/2014                   JESSAMINE          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN ON A GARAGE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1400572

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
910 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     HAIL             2 W LEXINGTON           38.04N  84.50W
05/21/2014  E0.75 INCH       FAYETTE            KY   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1400573

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
924 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DANVILLE                37.64N  84.77W
05/21/2014                   BOYLE              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1400574

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
926 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GEORGETOWN              38.20N  84.55W
05/21/2014                   SCOTT              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN NEAR 1004 LLOYD ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1400575

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
931 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0928 PM     HAIL             2 W SELLERSBURG         38.39N  85.79W
05/21/2014  E1.00 INCH       CLARK              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1400576

RAS