Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Louisville, KY

044 
WWUS53 KLMK 101811
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
211 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014

INC025-117-101821-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-140510T1815Z/
ORANGE IN-CRAWFORD IN-
211 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN CRAWFORD AND SOUTHERN
ORANGE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 215 PM EDT/115 PM CDT/...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3851 8635 3831 8632 3833 8666 3845 8667
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 267DEG 32KT 3838 8636

$$

EER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
149 PM EDT Sat May 10 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1035 AM EDT Sat May 10 2014

Only made a few minor updates this morning to the current forecast.
Overall trends of PoP, weather, and sky are on track. The PV anomaly
causing the convection this morning is pushing east through southern
Illinois. All activity will be south and east, with rain/storm
chances diminishing as the subsident west side of the PV anomaly
works eastward into our area later today. Broad area of showers and
embedded thunderstorms currently stretches southwest to northeast
across our eastern CWA, with a few isolated cells to our north. Will
have to watch the convection moving northeast out of western
Tennessee to see how this will play into the afternoon forecast. It
is on the southern edge of the PV anomaly and the latest HRRR
continues to move it northeast but in a weakening state. The HRRR
also redevelops convection across central Kentucky late this
afternoon and early evening, which may be in response to this
approaching southwest convection combined with the PV axis being
directly over the forecast area. Have made some adjustments to the
PoPs this afternoon, but nothing major at this time.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat May 9 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features a strong trough
pushing through the Upper Great Lakes.  An associated surface low
was centered across across southern Canada, with a surface cold
front extending southwest through northern
Indiana/Illinois/Missouri.  This front will slowly drift east today
as it washes out and lifts north on Sunday.

Convection continues early this morning across portions of western
and central KY.  This convection is being forced by a low-level jet
impinging on a remnant outflow boundary from convection last
evening.  This activity will likely continue through the morning
hours today, perhaps even expanding more in coverage as
synoptic-scale forcing associated with another ejecting PV anomaly
crosses the region.  The best coverage looks to be across southern
KY northeast into the Northern Bluegrass region.  Southern Indiana
will likely see the least amount of activity this morning.  The main
threats with these storms will be heavy rainfall and some small
hail.  In fact, will need to watch portions of southern KY closely
over the next few hours for some localized flooding potential as
storms continually train over the same areas (especially
Logan/Butler counties).

By late this morning into the afternoon, the main PV anomaly will
push northeast of the region.  The main synoptic cold front will
quickly wash out across southern IN and northern KY this afternoon
as it becomes parallel to the upper-level flow (which will be
transitioning to more zonal).  Therefore, with subsidence in the
mid-levels and no strongly convergent feature at the surface, think
additional development late this afternoon will be hard to come by.
While a stray shower/storm cannot be ruled out (especially across
southern IN or northern KY near the front), don't think it's worth a
mention in the forecast.  Therefore, have gone dry by late this
afternoon into this evening across much of the region.  Clouds will
likely linger across east-central KY through a good part of the day
keeping highs in the mid 70s, but sunshine should break out across
southern IN and west-central KY, which should help temps climb into
the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Guidance continues to weakly hint at some sort of an MCS developing
across the Central Plains today, approaching the Ohio Valley
overnight.  It appears that the main low-level jet axis will be
focused to the northwest of the region.  Additionally, the flow will
be starting to amplify with heights building across the region.
Therefore, am not sold that this system will make it this far, and
have lowered pops from previous forecast.  Will still leave some
slights in across the far northern CWA, but think most will stay dry
Saturday night into early Sunday.  Overnight lows will be in the low
to mid 60s.

Mother's Day is shaping out to be quite nice across the region.
What's left of the pesky, washed-out front will begin to lift north
in response to an approaching upper-level trough.  This front along
with some weak isentropic ascent may be enough to spark an isolated
shower/storm mainly north of I-64, but again this chance appears
quite slim.  Think most will stay dry with partly to mostly cloudy
skies.  Highs will be rather warm as thicknesses increase through
the day and we mix efficiently due to solid southwest flow.  This
should push highs into the middle 80s across most areas.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at XXX PM EDT Sat May 10 2014

Monday through Tuesday...

The Ohio Valley remains in warm southerly flow at the start of the
work week. With ample low level moisture riding up from the Gulf,
this will set the stage for thunderstorms by Tuesday as cooler air
approaches from the west behind a cold front associated with a
slowly progressing upper level trof. Despite some differences, model
guidance on this feature keeps the 50H Low well to our north, and
along with it the best dynamics.  Even so, there will be enough
instability with the moist warm air advection to generate thunder,
especially Tuesday afternoon.

Temperatures ahead of the cold front will be 10 degrees or so above
seasonal norms, with mid to upper 80s common.  Behind the front on
Tuesday, southern Indiana should top out in the upper 70s.
Overnight lows Tuesday morning will be primarily in the mid to upper
60s.

Tuesday night through Friday...

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat May 10 2014

Convection has become more scattered across the region, with the
broad area of showers from earlier this morning pushing into eastern
Kentucky. Overall coverage of showers and storms should be less this
afternoon and evening when compared to this morning, but the main
focus will be along a weak boundary in southern Indiana. In the wake
of this mornings convection, MVFR clouds have developed. It will
take some mixing through the afternoon to lift those bases higher.
Then expect VFR condition through much of the remaining TAF period.
The only question is whether there will be some light fog around
daybreak Sunday. Will add fog to BWG and LEX given the GFS is more
pessimistic than NAM. We will also see how convection this
afternoon/evening plays out and determine cross-over temp
thresholds. Winds will remain south and southwesterly through the
period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Update.........MJP
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......MJP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1109 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-111515-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
1109 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014 /1009 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING AND PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...HAIL...OR
DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

KD/MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
844 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W WOODBURY            37.18N  86.65W
05/10/2014                   BUTLER             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HWY 403 IMPASSABLE DUE TO RAPID RISE OF FLOOD WATER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1400514

RL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
120 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014

INZ076-077-083-084-101750-
CRAWFORD IN-DUBOIS IN-ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-
120 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...
NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 119 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PAOLI TO 9 MILES EAST OF JASPER TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JASPER...AND
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  JASPER...
  ENGLISH...
  GREENBRIER AND HUNTINGBURG...
  BRETZVILLE AND YOUNGS CREEK...
  CHAMBERSBURG AND STAMPERS CREEK...
  TROTTER CROSSING AND MILLERSBURG...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3847 8689 3854 8654 3858 8627 3836 8629
      3826 8668 3826 8708 3835 8708
TIME...MOT...LOC 1720Z 263DEG 24KT 3850 8652 3837 8675
          3831 8698

EER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
127 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014

INZ077-091-092-101800-
CLARK IN-FLOYD IN-WASHINGTON IN-
127 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 123 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEW ALBANY...AND MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  WILSON AND BENNETTSVILLE...
  MEMPHIS AND SPEED...
  CHARLESTOWN AND CLARK SIDING...
  NEW MARKET...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
16 AND 19.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3858 8561 3844 8561 3839 8564 3839 8603
      3851 8604
TIME...MOT...LOC 1728Z 265DEG 30KT 3844 8591

EER