Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Louisville, KY

284 
WWUS53 KLMK 210014
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
714 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

KYC031-210023-
/O.CAN.KLMK.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140221T0030Z/
BUTLER KY-
614 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN BUTLER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3754 8625 3728 8599 3723 8643 3733 8647
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 240DEG 45KT 3728 8636

$$

KYC061-085-099-210030-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140221T0030Z/
EDMONSON KY-GRAYSON KY-HART KY-
614 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL
HART...EASTERN GRAYSON AND NORTHERN EDMONSON COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM
CST...

AT 611 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST
OF BROWNSVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEITCHFIELD...SOUTH...SHREWSBURY...SWEEDEN...PROSPERITY...BEE
SPRING...SADLER...BROADWAY...HILLVIEW...MOUTARDIER...ANNETA...
STRAW...CUB RUN...PONDEROSA...CONOLOWAY...MEREDITH...HUFFMAN...
LINWOOD...PEONIA AND JOHNSON CROSSROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE
TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT
OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS!

&&

LAT...LON 3754 8625 3728 8599 3723 8643 3733 8647
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 240DEG 45KT 3728 8636

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

SCHOETTMER

524 
WWUS53 KLMK 210026
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
726 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

KYC061-085-099-210036-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140221T0030Z/
EDMONSON KY-GRAYSON KY-HART KY-
626 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL HART...EASTERN
GRAYSON AND NORTHERN EDMONSON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 730 PM EST/630
PM CST/...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS 
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3754 8625 3728 8599 3723 8643 3733 8647
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 239DEG 42KT 3736 8623

$$

SCHOETTMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
655 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 650 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2014

Despite concern below for some loss of instability in a narrow
northeast/southwest corridor of central Kentucky, enough of the rest
of the region has a heightened threat for tornadoes, that a new
tornado watch box covering all of central Kentucky and south central
Indiana. Sounding parameters and mesoanalysis data match up with a
local tornado study done on these types of systems. Specifically,
0-1 km shear and SRH as well as the significant tornado parameter
all show higher values over our northwest forecast area now, and
less, but still high values, across south central KY. We still will
have to wait and see if the current corridor from Leitchfield to
Louisville can recover from the current light/moderate storms by
late evening. The watch will be out till midnight.

Issued at 550 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2014

Starting to get some thunderstorms into our southwest forecast area
this hour, but gradient winds ahead of these storms still have been
the main story so far today, with peak gusts of 40-45 mph for many
places. A strong cap has been in place today, keeping moisture
trapped below about 7500 feet. Radar trends and satellite indicate
that cap breaking over western KY, with those cells moving into our
area. Have delayed onset of precip over the east to account for this
change, but still have plenty of dynamics and instability in place,
to warrant maintaining the damaging wind/isolated embedded tornado
threat.

Will be watching the second line, along the cold front, now about to
enter far western KY. Will be watching two areas for severe
development, one north of this first batch of storms, where the line
will have a chance to move into some untapped air, and a second
across south central Kentucky, as the cold front catches up to
storms ongoing. If we can get this light/moderate rain shield to
move into the Louisville/Lexington corridor, conditions should not
be as bad when the actual front pushes through.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 345 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2014

...STRONG GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

...SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE LIKELY THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THE NORTH...

In the near term, gusty southerly winds continue to bring an influx
of mild air and increasing moisture into the region.  Afternoon
temperatures were in the lower 70s across southern Kentucky with
upper 60s across southern Indiana.  Expect temperatures to remain
generally steady state for the remainder of this afternoon...though
a slight decrease in readings is likely after sunset.  Temperatures
may drop back into the middle to upper 60s before the cold front
arrives.  Surface observations and observations from the KY Mesonet
show that winds are in the 20-25 MPH with gusts up around 40 MPH.
These strong gradient winds will continue through the remainder of
the afternoon and evening.

As for convective evolution, we expect convection to continue to
grow upscale over western Kentucky this afternoon.  Initially we
will see a band of scattered convection continue to develop in a
pre-frontal confluence axis across western KY.  This is where the
advection of higher theta-e air will occur.  This convection will
likely grow more toward the southwest into western Tennessee.
Overall upgrowth will probably start off slowly due to weaker
instability.  The cloud cover across the region has really kept
insolation down as well as the instability.  The latest high
resolution/convection allowing model guidance continue to show
convection generating along the frontal boundary which is currently
approaching the St. Louis metro area.  Earlier guidance suggested
that this line would grow upscale and then merge with the
pre-frontal convective activity out ahead of it.  However, some of
the very latest guidance has now backed off that idea and suggests
that much of the forcing will occur along the actual front later
this evening.  This seems logical given the current observations and
radar trends.  Should this continue to be the case, then the
expected squall line will likely arrive a little later than
previously forecast.

Based on the current data, we have adjusted the forecast slightly to
account for the slightly slower arrival of convection.  In general,
we'll see scattered convection across central KY this afternoon and
evening, but the main convective line associated with the front will
arrive later. We anticipate that linear convection will likely move
into our western counties in the 7-9P EST time frame and then into
the I-65 corridor between 8-10P EST.  With the expected development
of the cold pool, we will likely see the line accelerate with time
and thus it will approach the Lexington/I-75 corridor by 9-11P EST.

The main threats with this line continue to be damaging winds in
excess of 65 MPH.  There continues to be a conditional tornado
threat with this line as it heads east.  However, best combination
of shear/instability will be to our west and the with the line
taking more of a linear mode later this evening, we strongly believe
that damaging winds will become the main convective hazard.  In
addition to the convective wind and tornado threats, there is a
threat of flash flooding across our SE IN/NE KY counties due to
recent snow melt and expected rainfall with this system (1-1.5
inches).  These threats are addressed down in the hydrology section
below.

The surface cold front will likely clear our forecast area after
midnight...which will result in the end of convection along with
colder air invading the region.  The colder air will not arrive in
earnest until very late tonight and readings are expected to cool
into the middle to upper 30s by morning.

The outlook for Friday looks to be rather dry and cooler than what
we've seen today.  Temperatures look to remain a bit mild with
readings generally in the upper 40s to around 50 in the north with
lower to middle 50s across southern Kentucky.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 312 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2014

The long term portion of the forecast will be characterized by broad
and shallow troughing in the mid levels across much of the CONUS.
This will allow for individual weak disturbances embedded in the
flow to drop through the Ohio Valley. There will likely be small
chances of light rain or snow with each disturbance, however overall
the disturbances appear to be moisture starved, and timing is very
difficult to nail down at this point. Additionally, each disturbance
will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air behind it, keeping
temperatures well below normal for next week.

Saturday will be a nice day with steady southwest winds and
increasing mid and upper level cloud cover. Look for highs to jump
into the 55 to 60 degree range. By Saturday night into Sunday, the
first of the moisture starved PV anomalies looks to scoot across the
Ohio Valley, with a nearly stationary baroclinic zone resting across
the Ohio Valley beneath it. Models have been inconsistent with these
features so will continue to leave portion of the forecast dry until
confidence is higher. If enough moisture ends up being present to
allow for precipitation chances, moisture profiles would support
moistly rain. However, some light snow could mix in across the north
Sunday morning as colder air filters in behind the front sinking
slowly south. Lows Saturday night will be in the 30s, with highs
Sunday only in the low 40s north to low 50s south.

A reinforcing shot of cold air will build into the Ohio Valley
starting Sunday night, keeping temperatures well below normal
through the remainder of the week. As mentioned above, a few weak PV
anomalies will dive through the shallow northwest flow and could
bring some light precipitation chances, however models have been
inconsistent with any one feature. Highs Monday will be the warmest
of the week in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Then, highs on Tuesday
through Thursday will struggle only into the low and mid 30s across
southern Indiana and north central Kentucky. Meanwhile, lows will be
in the upper teens and lower 20s each night. Across south central
KY, highs will be in the upper 30s and low 40s, with lows each night
in the mid 20s.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2013

We are still concerned with a flash flood threat across our
northeastern sections of our forecast area.  The recent snow melt
has led to saturated soil conditions in this area.  A number of low
water crossings are already flooded and the expected rainfall from
tonight's storms will only aggravate ongoing hydrologic conditions.
Therefore, the flash flood watch will continue across this region
tonight.
&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 625 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2014

A potent low pressure area is moving north northeast across the
IA/WI border this hour, forcing a cold front now into the western
tip of KY. A couple areas of convection have formed ahead of this
front, with stronger storms now about to enter the KBWG terminal.
The northern part of this line also is getting close to SDF, and
light rain is beginning to fall, along with embedded thunder. A
second line, closer to the front, is causing stronger storms farther
to our west. As this second line comes through, the KSDF and KLEX
terminals should see gusty winds, but the magnitude will depend on
how much this first batch of rain taps the low-level instability
available. Have backed off on wind gusts during the peak period for
these storms to come through for now, but will have to monitor radar
trends in future updates.  As the front comes through late tonight,
winds will shift around to westerly with gusts continuing. Available
guidance indicates the gusts should come down markedly, but upstream
obs have not been as low. Will keep in gusts around 20 nots after
the rains end early Friday. Gusty conditions will continue Friday,
under quickly clearing skies.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 AM EST Friday FOR KYZ030>043-049.

     WIND ADVISORY until 1 AM EST /Midnight CST/ Friday FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 AM EST Friday FOR INZ077>079-091-092.

     WIND ADVISORY until 1 AM EST /Midnight CST/ Friday FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......BJS
Hydrology......MJ
Aviation.......RJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
403 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

INZ077>079-091-092-KYZ030>043-049-212115-
WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-CLARK KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
NEW ALBANY...JEFFERSONVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...
NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...
TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...
CARLISLE...WINCHESTER
403 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REGION.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. AT THIS
TIME...THE BEST TIME FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN
7PM EST AND MIDNIGHT EST.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN FLOOD PRONE
AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS AND SNOWPACK
MELTING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY WIND DAMAGE AND WIND SPEEDS
GREATER THAN 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

INZ076-083-084-089-090-KYZ023>029-045>048-053>057-061>067-070>078-
081-082-212115-
ORANGE IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-
BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-
GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...
CORYDON...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...BEAVER DAM...
LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...MOUNT WASHINGTON...
SHEPHERDSVILLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...
RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...
FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...
COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
403 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014 /303 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014/

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BRINGING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. AT THIS
TIME...THE BEST TIME FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN
7PM EST AND MIDNIGHT EST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY WIND DAMAGE AND WIND SPEEDS
GREATER THAN 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

MJ/BJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
548 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

KYZ024-026>028-061-062-071-210020-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-OHIO
KY-WARREN KY-
548 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN...
AND 50 MPH WINDS...

AT 547 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WHITESVILLE TO 7
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MORGANTOWN TO 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF CROSS PLAINS
THESE STORMS WERE NEARLY STATIONARY.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  MORGANTOWN...
  LEITCHFIELD...
  TURNERTOWN AND DAVIS CROSSROADS...

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN KENTUCKY (FORD) PARKWAY BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 107 AND 94.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

&&

LAT...LON 3714 8673 3746 8665 3782 8603 3782 8601
      3752 8609 3719 8630 3703 8677 3704 8681
      3705 8682
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 270DEG 0KT 3768 8680 3718 8680
          3668 8680

SCHOETTMER