Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
729 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2014

...Heat...Humidity...and Stormy Conditions Continue....

Currently through this evening:

Isolated showers and thunderstorms have already begun to populate
around the forecast area; coverage and intensity will be on the
increase throughout the remainder of the afternoon through early
this evening, waning after sunset. The area currently sits under a
very moist, warm airmass with plenty of instability to work with and
steep low-level lapse rates. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s along
and west of I-65 are commonplace and the CIMSS NearCast model is
depicting quite a bit of lower-level precipitable water advecting in
from the NW, overspreading the western two-thirds (if not the
entire) forecast area within the next few hours. NearCast is also
showing higher amounts of theta-e advecting in coincident with the
PWATs and other models showing a shortwave riding the periphery of
the well-advertised ridge over the SE CONUS. This tropicalesque
airmass is setting the stage for heavy to torrential rainfall to
occur once again with storms with a secondary concern added for this
afternoon/evening's convection: they will be slow movers. Wind
profiles are meager at best with latest area VAD wind profiles
showing light winds around and below 5kft. These efficient rain
producers plus their slow-movement plus any potential training that
sets up equals flooding concerns, especially in locations that
received quite a bit of rain yesterday. Another hazard to watch for
today is the expected frequent to continuous lightning and gusty
winds, which should remain below severe criteria but still has the
potential to reach up to 40 to 50 mph. Stay tuned in to any
shorter-fused products that are issued.

Heat indices continue to be an issue, ranging from the upper 90s
across much of the forecast area to around 105 in the SW.

Tonight through Sunday night:

Storm coverage and intensity will wane after sunset but given the
soupy airmass with lingering instability overnight through Sunday
morning, at least slight chance PoPs cannot be ruled out. For
tomorrow, the upper ridge will continue its amplification with its
axis stretching into the Great Lakes by later. Central KY and
southern IN should remain to the right of its center, allowing for
yet another vort max to rotate around its periphery and dance across
this forecast area. Closer to the surface, the pattern will continue
to be messy, allowing for yet more storms to pop-up primarily during
the peak heating hours, although coverage is anticipated to be less
than today. Heavy rainfall will again be a threat and the wind
fields will continue to be on the lighter side. The unsettled
pattern will march on through tomorrow night, but have gone dry
after the 04Z - 06Z time frame.

Temperatures tonight through tomorrow night will continue to be on
the warm side, although highs won't be that far from normal for this
time of year. Look for lows tonight and tomorrow night in the low to
mid 70s with some upper 60s in typical cooler spots. Highs tomorrow
will range from the upper 80s to the lower 90s with heat indices
ranging the full spectrum of 90s with the western counties around
100 degrees.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2014

Fairly high confidence in the heart of a 500 mb ridge centered near
the MO Bootheel at the start of this period, and this feature should
remain in place through at least Tuesday night. Models are in pretty
good agreement up until that point, and then the tropical wave now
nearing the Bahamas becomes an influence. The GFS and Euro are in
pretty good agreement with it being off the FL coast Wednesday
morning, whereas the Canadian has it racing well off the U.S.
northeast coast by then. Ensemble forecasts show more of an
elongated trough, likewise indicating their uncertainty in location
for this feature.

Beyond Wednesday, the Euro maintains a stronger ridge over our
region, which makes sense assuming a fully-developed tropical
cyclone exists off the Carolina coast. Would expect this ridge to
suppress convection for most of the week and hold a front to our
northwest until next weekend.

As for rain chances this period, the heart of the ridge being across
the area Monday through Wednesday should limit coverage to isolated
to widely scattered at best. With muggy air in the region, we will
continue with marginal heat advisory criteria each day. Focus for
storms on Thursday and Friday should remain just to our northwest,
near a stalled frontal boundary. With little to spark storms here
will keep coverage near climo, in the lower ranges. Then Saturday
we should be able to bump it up a little with the proximity of the
front, though confidence not higher enough to go more than the
low-end chance range.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 729 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2014

Complex of thunderstorms over central Indiana is diving southward
and will negatively affect SDF during the first couple hours of the
TAF period.  Intense lightning, very heavy rain, and gusty chaotic
winds can be expected with the storms.

Whether the storms will reach LEX and BWG is more of a question
mark.  The convection should weaken as it crosses central Kentucky,
so for now have not hit TSRA hard at LEX or SDF.  Will monitor and
update as necessary.

Added in some light fog for the early morning hours given the rain
that has soaked the region this evening and the high humidity levels
with little wind.

Scattered storms will once again be possible Sunday afternoon, but
confidence in timing is not enough to include in the TAFs yet.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ Sunday FOR KYZ023>030-
     045-053-061>064-070>076.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ Sunday FOR INZ076-077-
     083-084-089>092.

&&

Short Term........lg
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
343 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

INZ076-077-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>030-045-053-061>064-070>076-241945-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-
FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-
GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-NELSON KY-LARUE KY-
BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...JASPER...MARENGO...
TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...
HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...
ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...
LOUISVILLE...BARDSTOWN...HODGENVILLE...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...
MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...
FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON
343 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014 /243 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014/

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO
DANGEROUS FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS...GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE NEW WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN A
MOIST ATMOSPHERE. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

SUMMER HEAT WILL STAY WITH US INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHEST
HEAT INDICES...100 TO 105...ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
READINGS WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 90S FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

INZ078-079-KYZ031>043-046>049-054>057-065>067-077-078-081-082-241945-
SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-
FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-
JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-
CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...
WINCHESTER...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...
BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
343 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014 /243 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO
DANGEROUS FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS...GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE NEW WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN A
MOIST ATMOSPHERE. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

LG/RJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
606 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

INZ090-232235-
HARRISON IN-
606 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND
40 MPH WINDS...

AT 604 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CORYDON TO 5 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CORYDON TO 6 MILES WEST OF VALLEY STATION...AND MOVING
SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  CORYDON...
  DOGWOOD...
  MACEDONIA AND HAPPY HOLLOW...
  ROSEWOOD AND CENTRAL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

&&

LAT...LON 3823 8609 3818 8592 3802 8593 3801 8595
      3800 8601 3799 8604 3806 8627 3814 8628
      3829 8627 3829 8625 3832 8626
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 352DEG 10KT 3822 8621 3814 8608
          3812 8596

SCHOETTMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
658 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

KYZ024-025-027-028-232330-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-MEADE KY-
658 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND 50
MPH WINDS...

AT 653 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES WEST OF ELIZABETHTOWN...AND MOVING SOUTH
AT 30 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  HOWE VALLEY AND FRANKLIN CROSS ROADS...
  SOLWAY AND PIERCE MILL...
  EASTVIEW AND WHITE MILLS JUNCTION...
  SUMMIT AND BIG CLIFTY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STRONG WINDS WITH THIS STORM CAN TOPPLE WEAKLY ROOTED TREES...AND
DOWN POWER LINES. TAKE PRECAUTIONS NOW TO SECURE TRASH CANS...LAWN
FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES SHOULD USE CAUTION.

&&

LAT...LON 3795 8624 3795 8594 3744 8593 3745 8603
      3753 8631
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 003DEG 28KT 3773 8610

SCHOETTMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
603 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

INZ084-089-090-KYZ023>025-232335-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-CRAWFORD IN-HANCOCK KY-HARRISON IN-MEADE KY-PERRY IN-
603 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN...
AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 558 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES WEST OF CORYDON...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 30
MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  ENGLISH...
  CEDAR FLAT AND NEW AMSTERDAM...
  BEECHLAND AND BATTLETOWN...
  LIBERTY AND ANDYVILLE...
  PAYNEVILLE AND SIROCCO...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 64 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
86 AND 92.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

&&

LAT...LON 3777 8629 3784 8666 3795 8677 3837 8648
      3819 8620
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 007DEG 26KT 3816 8632

SCHOETTMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
705 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

INZ076-077-084-090>092-232350-
CLARK IN-CRAWFORD IN-FLOYD IN-HARRISON IN-ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-
705 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN...
AND 50 MPH WINDS...

AT 703 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF SALEM...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  SALEM...
  HITCHCOCK AND SMEDLEY...
  HIGHLAND AND LIVONIA...
  ROSEBUD AND CANTON...
  BECKS MILL AND HARRISTOWN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

STRONG WINDS WITH THIS STORM CAN TOPPLE WEAKLY ROOTED TREES...AND
DOWN POWER LINES. TAKE PRECAUTIONS NOW TO SECURE TRASH CANS...LAWN
FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES SHOULD USE CAUTION.

&&

LAT...LON 3878 8617 3877 8614 3877 8610 3860 8588
      3858 8588 3858 8586 3844 8569 3834 8594
      3828 8625 3868 8643 3869 8641 3869 8632
      3873 8631 3878 8622
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 329DEG 30KT 3868 8623

SCHOETTMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
635 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

KYZ024-027-028-053-062-063-240005-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-EDMONSON KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-HART KY-LARUE KY-
635 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN...
AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 631 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF LEITCHFIELD...AND MOVING
SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  MUNFORDVILLE...
  LEITCHFIELD...
  ELIZABETHTOWN...
  BIG CLIFTY AND SAINT PAUL...
  HORNTOWN AND LACON...
  FRAGRANT AND ROYAL...
  ROCK CREEK AND SKAGGSTOWN...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
65 AND 94.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN KENTUCKY (FORD) PARKWAY BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 107 AND 137.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

&&

LAT...LON 3727 8586 3726 8624 3740 8651 3780 8627
      3773 8574
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 014DEG 25KT 3756 8611

SCHOETTMER

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