Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
434 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 430 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Complex over southern Indiana along with another over central TN
both are taking advantage of an unstable atmosphere across the
region to force scattered thunderstorms to develop. Given the
instability from SPC mesoanalysis, 4000 J/kg, as well as potential
for wet microbursts across parts of our region, went with Severe
Thunderstorm Watch box south of I-64 and roughly along and east of
I-65.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90 with dewpoints in the
low-mid 70s is making for an uncomfortable afternoon, with a few
storms starting to pop up. Deck of high clouds streaming in from the
northwest has helped to hold off significant development across most
of our region to this point. Have a thunderstorm complex developing
in the unstable airmass over north central TN, and this complex may
force some new storms to develop along an outflow boundary in
southern KY. A few storms also are forming along the corridor from
Hancock county to Casey county in KY, with even more storms east of
the complex over south central IN.

Best instability and moisture still resides over southern KY, so
will keep most focus for severe weather down there the next few
hours, with a secondary focus over our southeastern counties. For
this evening, should continue to see scattered development away from
these focus areas, with the northeast forecast area having the best
chance to continue with storms after midnight. This region will
continue to be the focus for development the next few periods, as a
ridge aloft should help dry out our southwest forecast area Thursday
and Thursday night.

That ridge will provide hotter temperatures in our southwest as
well, with highs Thursday likely reaching the mid 90s. Heat indices
could top out around 100. Given potential for some cloud cover have
not gone into the next category, 100-105, for heat indices there.
Think we can hold off on our more prolonged period of near heat
advisory criteria until Friday, read on in the discussion below.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Friday - Monday...

...Heat, Humidity, and Generally Unsettled Weather This Weekend...

An upper ridge will be in place through this weekend and into next
week, keeping hot and muggy conditions in place. Upper ridge looks
"dirty" with very little in the way of a subsidence inversion
normally seen with this type of environment. Therefore, can't do
away with storm chances each afternoon and evening. Models are
generally all over the place with expected precipitation fields each
day, despite the fairly good agreement in the overall pattern.
Therefore will just keep isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the
forecast pretty much every day and evening.

As far as temperatures go, highs look to top out in the low and mid
90s each day Friday through Monday as a core of H85 temps between
20 to 23C settle over the area. Some spots could touch the upper 90s
in our western Kentucky counties. Heat indices will be a bit of a
concern during this time period as the hot temperatures will combine
with dew points in the low and even mid 70s. Highest heat indices
each afternoon could top out in the 100-105 range, so forecast needs
to be monitored for a potential Heat Advisory due to a prolonged
period of days where heat indices approach criteria (105F). This
advisory would come with a later forecast issuance. One factor that
could limit temperatures and associated heat indices could be the
afternoon/evening convection.

Tuesday - Wednesday...

Confidence lowers for the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame as some
degree of troughing over the western CONUS tries push the upper
ridge axis east. Should this scenario play out, it would bring
better chances for storms to our western CWA, along with
temperatures not as hot. As a result, will go with highs around 90.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

Confidence in convective forecast this period is low, as cirrus
shield from storms to our northwest quickly moves into the region.
Have some cumulus developing over the central forecast area this
hour, and SPC mesoanalysis indicates plenty of instability across
the region. However, the cirrus canopy should provide some
subsidence to inhibit convection. There is still a possibility that
the storms to our northwest can remain organized enough to bring
those storms to the terminals later this afternoon. Thus have gone
with vicinity storms over a larger period of time and will update as
the afternoon progresses. May even get into another round of precip
later tonight, as additional disturbances move in from the
northwest, but a lot will depend on what happens this afternoon. Fog
forecast for Thursday morning will depend on that as well. Given
very high dewpoints across BWG this hour, have enough confidence to
go with a period of MVFR conditions, as in current guidance.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
331 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-211945-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
331 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 /231 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL KICK
OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. IN ADDITION...THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL OCCURRING WITH ANY STORM. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH STORM COVERAGE DECREASING EACH DAY AS A LARGE
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. STORMS ON
THURSDAY COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION
OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

SUMMER HEAT WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES
SOLIDLY IN THE 90S OVER THE AREA STARTING FRIDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HOT TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED
HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES PEAKING IN THE 100 TO 105
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
LOUISVILLE ANY WIND DAMAGE...HAIL...OR FLOODING TODAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

RJS/BJS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
518 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

KYZ056-057-067-202150-
GARRARD KY-LINCOLN KY-MADISON KY-
518 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...PENNY SIZE HAIL...
AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 516 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF
LANCASTER TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF BRODHEAD...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  LANCASTER...
  MANSE AND LOWELL...
  CARTERSVILLE AND ROUND HILL...
  DUNCANON AND CALEAST...
  PEYTONTOWN AND WHITES...

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 75 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 76 AND 83.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3756 8413 3755 8417 3752 8420 3751 8427
      3753 8434 3747 8438 3748 8444 3733 8450
      3735 8455 3735 8460 3776 8462 3775 8458
      3773 8458 3774 8456 3766 8414
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 296DEG 25KT 3771 8450 3744 8448

RAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
421 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

KYZ070>073-202205-
ALLEN KY-LOGAN KY-SIMPSON KY-WARREN KY-
421 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...PENNY SIZE HAIL...
AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 418 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THREE SPRINGS TO 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF RUSSELLVILLE...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  FRANKLIN...
  THREE SPRINGS...
  SCOTTSVILLE...
  MEMPHIS JUNCTION...
  CRESTMOOR...
  GAINESVILLE AND HALFWAY...
  TURNERTOWN AND TRAMMEL...
  TEMPERANCE AND POPE...
  MAYNARD AND RED HILL...

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 20 AND 6.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE NATCHER PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1
AND 5.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3665 8663 3705 8686 3700 8669 3702 8666
      3691 8615 3682 8606 3681 8607 3678 8603
      3677 8605 3676 8601 3672 8598 3665 8595
      3663 8597
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 313DEG 24KT 3683 8630 3689 8670

RAS