Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Louisville, KY

Clark County, IN, Crawford County, IN, Dubois County, IN, Floyd County, IN, Harrison County, IN, Jefferson County, IN, Orange County, IN, Perry County, IN, Scott County, IN, Washington County, IN, Adair County, KY, Allen County, KY, Anderson County, KY, Barren County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Breckinridge County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Butler County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clark County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Green County, KY, Hancock County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Hart County, KY, Henry County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Larue County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Logan County, KY, Madison County, KY, Marion County, KY, Meade County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Ohio County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Russell County, KY, Scott County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Trimble County, KY, Warren County, KY, Washington County, KY, Woodford County, KY

170 
WGUS63 KLMK 142304
FFALMK

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
704 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LIKELY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS WAVES
OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHERN INDIANA...

.THE COMBINATION OF A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS. TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
REPEATED AREAS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN FLOOD PRONE
AREAS.

INZ076-077-083-084-089-KYZ023-151200-
/O.EXA.KLMK.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-140515T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HANCOCK KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...JASPER...MARENGO...
TELL CITY...HAWESVILLE
704 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014 /604 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND NORTHWEST 
  KENTUCKY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN INDIANA... 
  CRAWFORD IN...DUBOIS IN...ORANGE IN...PERRY IN AND WASHINGTON 
  IN. IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...HANCOCK KY. 

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
  VALLEY TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
  EXPECTED WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE
  OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE VALUES...THESE SHOWERS
  AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXCESSIVE
  RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
  2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
  THURSDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

INZ078-079-090>092-KYZ024>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
082-151200-
/O.CON.KLMK.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-140515T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...CORYDON...
NEW ALBANY...JEFFERSONVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...
LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...
HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...
LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...
BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...
LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...
SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...
JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
704 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014 /604 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND KENTUCKY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...IN INDIANA...CLARK IN...FLOYD IN...HARRISON IN... 
  JEFFERSON IN AND SCOTT IN. IN KENTUCKY...ADAIR KY...ALLEN KY...
   ANDERSON KY...BARREN KY...BOURBON KY...BOYLE KY...
  BRECKINRIDGE KY...BULLITT KY...BUTLER KY...CASEY KY...CLARK 
  KY...CLINTON KY...CUMBERLAND KY...EDMONSON KY...FAYETTE KY...
  FRANKLIN KY... GARRARD KY...GRAYSON KY...GREEN KY...HARDIN 
  KY...HARRISON KY... HART KY...HENRY KY...JEFFERSON KY...
  JESSAMINE KY...LARUE KY... LINCOLN KY...LOGAN KY...MADISON 
  KY...MARION KY...MEADE KY... MERCER KY...METCALFE KY...MONROE 
  KY...NELSON KY...NICHOLAS KY...OHIO KY...OLDHAM KY...RUSSELL 
  KY...SCOTT KY...SHELBY KY... SIMPSON KY...SPENCER KY...TAYLOR 
  KY...TRIMBLE KY...WARREN KY... WASHINGTON KY AND WOODFORD KY. 

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
  VALLEY TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
  EXPECTED WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE
  OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE VALUES...THESE SHOWERS
  AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXCESSIVE
  RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
  2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
  THURSDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

13

478 
WGUS63 KLMK 150235
FFALMK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1035 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LIKELY TONIGHT AS WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

.THE COMBINATION OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED 
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS.
TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER REPEATED AREAS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>032-053-061>064-070>076-150345-
/O.CAN.KLMK.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-140515T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-LARUE KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-
HART KY-GREEN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-
MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...HODGENVILLE...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...
SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON
1035 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014 /935 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

KYZ033>043-045>049-054>057-065>067-077-078-081-082-151200-
/O.CON.KLMK.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-140515T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-
ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-
NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-MARION KY-
BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...
GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...
VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...
SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...
LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...CAMPBELLSVILLE...
LIBERTY...STANFORD...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
1035 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014 /935 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/
THURSDAY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND 
  SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN 
  EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...ANDERSON KY...BOURBON KY...BOYLE KY... 
  CLARK KY...FAYETTE KY...FRANKLIN KY...GARRARD KY...HARRISON 
  KY...JESSAMINE KY...MADISON KY...MERCER KY...NICHOLAS KY... 
  SCOTT KY AND WOODFORD KY. IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...HENRY 
  KY...NELSON KY...SHELBY KY...SPENCER KY AND WASHINGTON KY. IN 
  SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...ADAIR KY...CASEY KY...CLINTON KY... 
  CUMBERLAND KY...LINCOLN KY...MARION KY...RUSSELL KY AND TAYLOR 
  KY. 

* UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THURSDAY

* A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
  VALLEY TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
  WILL CONTINUE. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM
  COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE VALUES...THESE SHOWERS AND
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
  THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
  INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
  MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

13

669 
WGUS63 KLMK 150709
FFALMK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
309 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014

KYZ033>043-045>049-054>057-065>067-077-078-081-082-150815-
/O.CAN.KLMK.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-140515T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-
ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-
NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-MARION KY-
BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...
GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...
VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...
SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...
LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...CAMPBELLSVILLE...
LIBERTY...STANFORD...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
309 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014 /209 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. RAINFALL RATES HAVE DIMINISHED...AND THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED. A SOAKING RAIN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
DAYBREAK...BUT IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED TO LOCALIZED PONDING ON
SOME ROADWAYS. 

$$

RAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
129 PM EDT Wed May 14 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Wed May 14 2014

An update has been issued to include Tornado Watch #154 which is
valid until 800 PM EDT.  Convection has started to develop rapidly
as we have destabilized across the region.  Two waves of storms are
expected across the region.  Wave number one is currently moving
through south-central Kentucky and will affect the eastern half of
the forecast area this afternoon.  Greatest coverage will be from
Lake Cumberland northward into the Bluegrass region including
Lexington Metro over the next several hours.  A secondary wave is
developing from near Jackson, TN southward toward Meridian, MS.
This line will lift NNE and into western Kentucky later this
afternoon and evening.  The main threat with both waves continues to
be damaging winds and large hail.  However, as surface low deepens
and moves northeastward, the low-level wind flow is forecast to back
to the southeast, increasing low-level shear profiles across the
region.  This will result in the potential for storms to acquire
rotating updrafts with the possibility of isolated tornadoes.  The
greatest threat of tornadoes still appears to be focused along and
east of the I-65 corridor.

In addition to the severe weather threat, high moisture content in
the atmosphere will result in any storm being an efficient rainer.
Training storms could produce locally heavy rainfall with 1-1.5
in/hr rain rates which could result in flash flooding.

Update issued at 1014 AM EDT Wed May 14 2014

Did a quick update to trend PoPs and temperatures closer to
observations.  Surface cold frontal boundary is draped across
central KY this morning.  Main batch of rainfall in the form of rain
showers with embedded thunderstorms continues to stream northward on
the cool side of the boundary..mainly west of I-65.  Have had some
localized heavy band of rainfall that affected portions of southern
Indiana.  These heavier bands have shifted northward into central
Indiana while lighter showers continue to stream in from the south.

There is a very strong cloud and temperature gradient across the
region this morning.  In our eastern areas, we have partly to mostly
sunny skies with readings in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.  West
of I-65, temperatures are generally in the upper 50s to the lower
60s.  Surface warm front to the south is expected to advance
northward today which should allow temperatures to war into the
middle to upper 70s in the east.  However, continued cloud cover
will likely keep temperatures in the lower to middle 60s out across
the west with mid-upper 60s in the I-65 corridor.

Two emerging threats are on the table for this afternoon/evening.
The first is the potential for strong to severe convection and the
second will be locally heavy rainfall amounts.  With regards to
severe potential, combination of surface heating and strengthening
ascent aloft along with surface convergence should result in a
uptick in convective activity this afternoon despite the widespread
convection we've seen this morning.  While mid-level lapse rates are
generally weak, we do have an anomalously high moisture content with
precipitable water amounts above 1.5 inches.  Thus, adequate
moisture is in place for sustained convection.

Interesting aspect of the event is the developing surface low to our
southwest.  As this feature lifts northeastward, we will see the
low-level wind fields back to the southeast ahead of the approaching
low.  With decent mid-level flow pushing into the region aloft,
combined with the backed flow at the surface will likely result in
veered wind profiles supportive of rotating updrafts with
convection. While the overall severe weather parameters support more
of a damaging wind threat, isolated tornadoes will be possible
mainly along and east of the I-65 corridor this afternoon.
Antecedent tornado threat may continue into the early evening hours
as the mid-level jet max swings through the Ohio Valley.

The second threat will be the potential for heavy rainfall with
convection this afternoon and evening.  As previously mentioned,
anomalous moisture exists across the region and the strong southerly
flow off the gulf will continue to transport copious amounts of
moisture into the Ohio Valley.  Good surface confluence and
associated upper dynamics will likely lead to N-S oriented bands of
showers and storms that may train over areas.  1-1.5 inch per hour
rain rates are very likely with this activity that may lead to flash
flooding across our central and eastern counties this afternoon and
evening.  Highest moisture flux convergence values appear to be
maximized in the 14/21Z to 15/00Z time frame...which coincides with
the maximum diurnal heating curve.  For this reason, will be
tweaking up QPF forecasts a bit and will also mention heavy rainfall
in the forecast grids.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed May 14 2014

Surface front has hung up somewhere in the I-65 corridor, with the
wind shift a bit farther east and the actual temp/dewpoint
discontinuity hanging back to the west. Sharp upper trof is still
over the Plains, with a respectable moisture feed fueling convection
over the Mississippi Valley, and hints of a surface wave developing
over the Deep South. Most of central Kentucky and southern Indiana
are currently rain-free, but scattered showers and a few T-storms
have started to blossom over middle Tennessee within the last hour.

Low-level jetting isn't too impressive, but there is plenty of
low-level moisture to sustain any showers that try to push north out
of Tennessee this morning. The upper trof will deepen as it pushes
east, and with the resulting deepening of the surface wave, the
boundary will lift north and west again, putting more of central
Kentucky into the warm sector. Will carry categorical POPs, as
multiple waves of showers and storms will move through today and
into tonight. Forecast soundings show decent unidirectional shear,
but anywhere that surface winds back in response to the deepening of
the surface low, some directional shear will develop, and it will be
concentrated in the lowest 1-2 km. Rotating storms will be possible,
and the main limiting factor in their severe potential will be how
much instability develops. Average QPF on the order of an inch is
not a big deal, but with multiple rounds of precip, any location
that sees training storms could easily get 2+ inches as PWATs will
be solidly above the 75th percentile for May.

By Thursday the moisture feed is shunted off to the east, but the
upper low will close off over Wisconsin. Cold pool aloft will keep
us quite cloudy, and 850mb temps could plunge as low as +1 to +3C.
If this verifies our current max temp forecast in the lower 60s
could even be generous.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed May 14 2014

A deep mid-level trough will push south and east over the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley late this week. Ahead of this trough scattered
showers will be possible late Thursday night and Friday. There could
be a brief period for thunder Friday afternoon before capping works
in aloft, but the chance seems fairly isolated at this time. As the
trough lifts to the northeast through the weekend, any afternoon
instability showers that develop will be mainly across our north and
northeastern forecast area Saturday.

As we head from Sunday into the new work week, warm-air advection on
the back side of this upper trough should result in isentropically
forced showers and perhaps storms early Sunday morning. The latest
guidance keeps most of this activity across the Tennessee Valley,
generally well south of our area. However, the GFS brings some of
the precip across our southern counties. We already had slight
chance PoPs going, so will keep those in place for now. If this
trough is more amplified/deeper Saturday night than what the GFS
depicts, then all precip will be south of the forecast area. Will
keep an eye on trends the next day or so. The trough moves east
Monday and Tuesday, with heights aloft increasing as ridging pushes
east from the Plains. Expect the dry conditions to continue through
Tuesday with a warming trend on tap.

With the deep, anomalous trough axis aloft during the beginning of
the long-term period, temperatures Friday and Saturday will be some
10-15 degrees below normal for this time of year. High temperatures
are only expected to reach the lower to middle 60s, with overnight
lows in the 40s. Then we will begin to warm into next week. Highs of
middle and upper 70s Sunday will give way to low and middle 70s by
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Wed May 14 2014

Stalled out cold front currently resides across central Kentucky
this afternoon.  A developing area of low pressure over west-central
Mississippi is forecast to move northeastward through KY later this
afternoon and evening.  This will bring several waves of showers and
thunderstorms to the region.

Ceilings and visibilities will fluctuate this afternoon at the
terminals.  For the most part, VFR conditions will prevail outside
of any thunderstorms.  Within the thunderstorms, gusty winds and
ceilings/visibilities dropping to IFR levels can be expected.  The
best chances of convection look to be between 14/18Z and 15/00Z.

Once the wave of low pressure pulls off to the east, combination of
low clouds and fog/haze/mist will be likely at the terminals
tonight.  MVFR visibilities and IFR ceilings are likely to be found
at the terminals after 15/02Z.

Surface winds will start off light and variable, then shift to the
southeast this afternoon.  After the low moves northeast of the
region, southwesterly winds are expected...which will gradually turn
more west/northwesterly toward 15/12Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......MJP
Aviation.......MJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
103 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

INZ084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-
151715-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-
BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-
JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-
MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-
LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-
MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...
NEW ALBANY...JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...
BRANDENBURG...BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
103 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014 /1203 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014/

...TORNADO WATCH 154 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AS A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
KENTUCKY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE EXCESSIVE PONDING OF WATER AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

INZ076>079-083-151715-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER
103 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014 /1203 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AS A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
KENTUCKY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE EXCESSIVE PONDING OF WATER AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR
HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

RAS/MJP/MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
154 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

KYZ066-067-078-141840-
CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-RUSSELL KY-
154 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 150 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF JAMESTOWN...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES...HALF INCH
HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  LIBERTY...
  STANFORD...
  EVONA AND TEDDY...
  LABASCUS AND CANTOWN...
  GILPIN AND ARGYLE...
  LAWHORN HILL AND MOUNT OLIVE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

&&

LAT...LON 3708 8512 3759 8474 3760 8470 3750 8450
      3722 8473 3712 8490 3705 8490 3703 8489
      3699 8492
TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 210DEG 32KT 3714 8494

04

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
205 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0152 PM     HAIL             GRADYVILLE              37.08N  85.42W
05/14/2014  M1.00 INCH       ADAIR              KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1400551

CMC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
211 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

KYZ041-048-141840-
FAYETTE KY-JESSAMINE KY-
211 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 208 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF NICHOLASVILLE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES...PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  LEXINGTON...
  FAYETTE MALL...
  U K ARBORETUM...
  DUNBAR HIGH SCHOOL...
  BRYAN STATION...
  LITTLE TEXAS...
  SOUTH ELKHORN AND FROGTOWN...
  BEAUMONT PARK AND BLUE GRASS AIRPORT...
  HOLIDAY HILLS AND VILEY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES.

&&

LAT...LON 3789 8465 3793 8469 3800 8466 3802 8466
      3813 8462 3818 8449 3809 8433
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 213DEG 21KT 3794 8465

TWF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
113 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

KYZ078-082-141840-
CLINTON KY-RUSSELL KY-
113 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND 40
MPH WINDS...

AT 108 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ALBANY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES...AND GUSTY
WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  JAMESTOWN...
  ALBANY...
  UPCHURCH AND SNOW...
  CUMBERLAND CITY AND NARVEL...
  ROWENA AND LONG BOTTOM...
  SEWELLTON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

&&

LAT...LON 3664 8529 3678 8524 3708 8509 3698 8488
      3695 8490 3696 8494 3692 8495 3686 8506
      3683 8506 3680 8501 3678 8501 3662 8511
TIME...MOT...LOC 1812Z 205DEG 32KT 3670 8515

JDG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
223 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

KYZ039-040-046-047-054-055-141850-
ANDERSON KY-BOYLE KY-MARION KY-MERCER KY-WASHINGTON KY-WOODFORD KY-
223 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 217 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES WEST OF DANVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES...HALF INCH
HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  HARRODSBURG...
  DIXVILLE AND NEVADA...
  RIVERVIEW ESTATES AND CORNISHVILLE...
  BOHON AND STRINGTOWN...
  JACKSON AND TALMAGE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

&&

LAT...LON 3792 8469 3755 8491 3760 8513 3802 8491
      3793 8468
TIME...MOT...LOC 1822Z 205DEG 30KT 3765 8497

JDG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
238 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

KYZ036-037-041-042-141910-
BOURBON KY-FAYETTE KY-HARRISON KY-SCOTT KY-
238 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 236 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MEADOWTHORPE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES...PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  GEORGETOWN...
  U K ARBORETUM...
  THOROUGHBRED ACRES...
  NORTHLAND...
  MEADOWTHORPE...
  SPINDLETOP ESTATES AND DONERAIL...
  NEW ZION AND MATTOXTOWN...
  GEORGETOWN SCOTT COUNTY AIRPORT AND NEWTOWN...
  CENTERVILLE AND OXFORD...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 75 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
113 AND 127.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

&&

LAT...LON 3842 8447 3831 8424 3801 8450 3804 8464
TIME...MOT...LOC 1838Z 208DEG 25KT 3808 8453

JDG