Special Weather Statement, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
255 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
PLEASANT WEATHER WILL LAST STRAIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AT THIS HOUR...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM JARBIDGE DOWN TO GABBS. THE 500MB CLOSED LOW WILL
SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND WEAKEN A BIT TODAY. THE STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR THAT BROUGHT A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO THE AREA...HAS PUSHED
OVER INTO UTAH...SO EXPECTING ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE
LIMITED. WITH THAT SAID...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG
STORMS...ESPECIALLY IF WE GET SOME CLEARING THIS MORNING...AS -26C
500MB COLD POOL IS LOCATED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW A
GOOD HAIL GROWTH ZONE TODAY...WITH FAT CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30C
ZONE...IF WE CAN HEAT UP TO THE UPPER-70S. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER EAST TODAY ACROSS WHITE PINE
AND EASTERN ELKO COUNTY. EXPECTING THE CONVECTIVE MODE TO PULSE
STORMS...WITH NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...AS STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW. QPF MODEL BLEND AMOUNTS ARE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHER WHITE PINE
AND SOUTHERN ELKO COUNTY TODAY.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DRY WESTERLY FLOW
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING 500MB TROUGH.
IT WILL BE CLEAR TO THE WEST...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS
EASTERN NEVADA. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE DAY AS RIDGING BUILDS
INTO WESTERN NEVADA...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA. IT WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST SOME FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE
EAST. EXPECT HIGHS TO TREND UP BACK INTO THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE IN CONTROL OF NORTHERN NEVADA'S WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS TIME ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. BY SATURDAY...MODELS ARE DEPICTING A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. RIGHT
NOW IT IS NOT LOOKING TOO BAD...WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20G30-35 MPH.
WINDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HAVE KEPT THE WEATHER DRY FOR THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TO AT OR BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
ALL TAF SITES. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT KELY AND
KEKO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL TEMPORARILY
DROP TO MVFR FOR VSBY/CIGS IN THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. WIND GUSTS TO
45KT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TODAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE CENTERED
DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS FWZ 470 AND 455. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH TEMPS
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 70S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY...WITH
GOOD R.H. RECOVERIES TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN. PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS COULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A DRY PACIFIC NORTHWEST COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

95/86/86/95

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
302 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014

NVZ031-033>035-038-039-270300-
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY-
RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE-WHITE PINE COUNTY-
SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-
302 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA AND NORTHEAST NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG...WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT BEING SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
EASTERN ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT WEATHER PHENOMENA ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1201 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014

NVZ035-261930-
WHITE PINE COUNTY NV-
1201 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WHITE PINE COUNTY UNTIL
1230 PM PDT...

AT 1200 PM PDT..NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 22 MILES NORTHWEST OF RUTH...MOVING NORTH AT 15
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. LARGE AMOUNTS OF SMALL HAIL IS LIKELY...WITH
HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL CENTRAL WHITE PINE COUNTY SOUTHWEST OF CHERRY CREEK...
  RURAL CENTRAL WHITE PINE COUNTY SOUTHEAST OF BIG BALD MOUNTAIN...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3974 11539 3981 11503 3950 11501 3946 11524
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 176DEG 16KT 3958 11515

TURNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1221 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014

NVZ035-041-262000-
NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY NV-WHITE PINE COUNTY NV-
1221 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE AND WESTERN
WHITE PINE COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM PDT...

AT 1220 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DUCKWATER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING ALONG AND NEAR DUCKWATER ROAD.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  DUCKWATER...
  DUCKWATER ROAD...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3919 11587 3913 11555 3887 11565 3888 11588
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 185DEG 20KT 3897 11575

TURNER