Special Weather Statement, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO EASTERN NEVADA
PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

DRY AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF NE NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH PW NEAR
OR LESS THAN 0.50 INCH. STILL EXPECT ISOLATED WEAK/DRY CONVECTION
ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MARGINAL CAPE OVER ELKO
COUNTY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH. POP GRIDS ARE PROBABLY OVERDONE THIS
EVENING, BUT WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING ON VISIBLE SATELLITE, WILL
LET THEM RIDE FOR NOW. A STRONG SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE IS IN
PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA, WITH PW WELL OVER ONE INCH SOUTH
OF PIOCHE IN LINCOLN COUNTY. WHILE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS HEADING
TO UTAH, IT WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN
NEVADA ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY...INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, AS WELL AS
CLOUD COVER, ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA, AS A STRONG SURGE OF MONSOON
MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY UP I-15 FROM LAS VEGAS TO SALT LAKE CITY.
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS MOISTURE WILL AFFECT EASTERN NEVADA,
WITH MOISTURE QUALITY INCREASING QUICKLY WITH EASTERN EXTENT. 12Z
NAM BRINGS ONE INCH PW TO THE EASTERN BORDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
FROM WEST WENDOVER TO GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK. IT IS ACROSS
THESE FAR EASTERN AREAS WHERE STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ARE
EXPECTED. GFS IN PARTICULAR FORECASTS A STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS
WITH LIFTED INDEX TO -5 ACROSS FAR EASTERN ELKO COUNTY. DID NOT GO
CRAZY WITH HIGHER POPS, AS CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY AND
NEW THUNDERSTORM PRODUCTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE DEGRADES
QUICKLY WEST OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS, WITH PW BELOW 0.75 INCH. AS
SUCH, MORE OF A WET/DRY MIX OF CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF NE
NEVADA, WITH MUCH LESS RAINFALL EFFICIENCY. THAT SAID, NAM HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT FORECASTING A SURFACE LOW (995 MB) TO DEVELOP NEAR
ELKO, IN RESPONSE TO THE CLOSED LOW SINKING SOUTH ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SHOULD AID CONVERGENCE AND ENCOURAGE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS ELKO/WHITE PINE COUNTIES. EASTERLY
WIND COMPONENTS EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD ALSO HELP PULL IN
SOME MOISTURE FROM THE STRONG MONSOON PLUME IN UTAH. DRY SLOT
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW'S CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO PROHIBIT
CONVECTION COMPLETELY IN AND NEAR NYE COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WITH THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE, AS WELL AS HEIGHTS
FALLING UNDER THE PASSING TROUGH AXIS, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SEVERAL DEGREES ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO MONDAY'S READINGS. EASTERN
ELKO/WHITE PINE COUNTIES WILL FALL 10 DEGREES FROM MONDAY, CLOSEST
TO THE UTAH MOISTURE PLUME.

WEDNESDAY...OVERALL MOISTURE QUALITY DEGRADES, WITH PW FALLING
BELOW 0.75 INCH FOR MOST LOCALES. INSTABILITY REMAINS UNDER THE
TROUGH AXIS ALOFT, HOWEVER, WITH GFS FORECASTING WIDESPREAD LIFTED
INDEX OF -2 OR -3 ACROSS ELKO/WHITE PINE COUNTIES. AS SUCH, EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY, BUT COVERAGE WILL
BE LESS THAN THAT SEEN ON TUESDAY. STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL TREND
DRIER, ESPECIALLY OVER THE VALLEYS, PRODUCING MOSTLY VIRGA.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. MODELS HAVING HARD
TIME WITH UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER MAIN FOCUS
IN THE EXTENDED FOR THE CWA WILL BE ON THE TROF OVER THE WESTERN
US. GFS AND EC HAVE SOME QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF AXIS ACROSS
THE NORTH ZONES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AIRMASS STILL UNSTABLE IN
THE EASTERN ZONES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. DRIER NW
FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO NEXT MONDAY FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. GFS AND EC KEEP TROF OVER
THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN BY NEXT MONDAY...EC BUILDS RIDGE
OVER NV WHILE GFS KEEPS A BROAD TROF. EITHER SOLUTION WILL KEEP
THE CWA DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
NEAR KEKO AND KELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR KWMC...KEKO AND KELY ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED,
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE EASTERN FWZ, EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL OCCUR
IN UTAH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
MOISTURE AFFECTING THE EASTERN FIRE DISTRICT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOST LIKELY ACROSS FWZ 469, 470 AND 455 TUESDAY, WITH LAL OF 4.
MOISTURE QUALITY WILL IMPROVE WITH EASTERN EXTENT, AS SUCH WETTEST
STORMS WITH THE BEST HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE
NV/UT BORDER, WHERE PW WILL APPROACH ONE INCH. PW WILL RAPIDLY
DROP OFF BELOW 0.75 INCH WEST OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS, WHERE STORMS
WILL TREND TOWARD A WET/DRY MIX, WITH ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES PROBABLE. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WILL LIMIT DRY LIGHTNING
COVERAGE, SO ONLY FORECASTED LAL OF 2, BUT SOME NEW FIRE STARTS
ARE LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY...OVERALL MOISTURE QUALITY DEGRADES, WITH PW BELOW 0.75
INCH FOR MOST FWZ. INSTABILITY PERSISTS, HOWEVER, MAINLY ACROSS
ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE REDUCED
ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO THAT SEEN ON TUESDAY, BUT STORMS THAT DO
FORM ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA WILL TREND TOWARD THE DRIER END OF THE
SPECTRUM, ESPECIALLY OVER THE VALLEYS WHERE UPDRAFTS WILL MOSTLY
PRODUCE VIRGA AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. FORECASTED AN LAL OF 2 FOR
THE VALLEYS, LAL OF 3 FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ELKO/WHITE PINE
COUNTIES, WITH LAL OF 4 LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/87/87/99

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