Special Weather Statement, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
341 PM PDT SAT AUG 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL PUSH MOISTURE INTO NEVADA FROM THE SOUTH
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE ON MONDAY...BEFORE PEAKING ON TUESDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A WELL
DEFINED CLOSED 500MB LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL CALI COAST. ALL
MODELS HAVE THIS FEATURE STALLING OUT TONIGHT JUST OFF THE COAST
OF CALIFORNIA. IN ADDITION THE 4-CORNERS HIGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY TO
OUR EAST OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. THIS IS ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION IN ADDITION THE CLOSED LOW IS CLOSE
ENOUGH INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH SHORTWAVES. ONE IS TRAVELING
THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH IS
HELPING TO ADD CONVECTION. A FEW STORMS WILL REMAIN STRONG INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...ALSO INCREASED POPS ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY AS
MUCAPE REMAINS ABOVE 300 J/KG WITH NEGATIVE LI VALUES. THIS
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WITH CONVECTION CHANCES
SPREADING FURTHER SOUTH ONCE AGAIN AS MOISTURE FROM ARIZONA BEGINS
TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA. NAM12 IS SHOWING ANOTHER 500MB
SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TOMORROW...WITH 500-300MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM AGAIN. LOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA...SO CONVECTIVE DOWN-BURST THREATS WILL CONTINUE.

MONDAY MOISTURE SURGE REALLY BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM ARIZONA AS
CLOSED 500MB LOW OFF THE CALI COAST REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT A MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET EXIT REGION WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE
STATE. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE TO 30KTS ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. UPPER LOW JUST OFF
THE CENTRAL CA COAST OPENS TO A TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SETTING UP
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA TUESDAY. EXPECT INCREASED
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER MOST OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEVADA
TUESDAY WITH ELEVATED CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS. DRIER AND MORE STABLE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA. MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE TROUGH
BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF DROPPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE GFS HOLDS ONTO TROUGH SOLUTION...GRADUALLY
PUSHING THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. PREVIOUS GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS BOTH SUGGESTING
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEKEND. LATEST
RUNS SHOW MORE INCONSISTENCIES...WITH THE EC TRYING TO BRING IN YET
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST. INCREASED POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY...KEEPING AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH FRIDAY.
FOR NOW HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING TS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER MOST OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA INTO THIS EVENING. DRIER AND MORE STABLE
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA HOWEVER...AND AS SUCH NO MENTION OF TS AT
KTPH. STORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THOUGH MAY LINGER FURTHER
INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. STORMS REDEVELOP
SUNDAY WITH BEST CHANCE FOR VCTS OVER EASTERN NEVADA...KELY AND
KEKO.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN STRAIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS EACH AFTERNOON.
AFTER A FEW DAYS OF DRYING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA...MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN STARTING TOMORROW...BUT ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES OCCUR ACROSS THE VALLEYS WILL BE DRY IN
NATURE TOMORROW SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY DAY OF
DRY LIGHTING AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE ABOVE .75" ACROSS THE ENTIRE
STATE ON MONDAY...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO TREND WETTER WITH THE
SUB-TROPICAL SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM ARIZONA AHEAD OF THE CLOSED
LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. DIDN'T OVERDUE LAL VALUES ON
MONDAY...DUE TO TIMING ISSUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-DECK
CLOUDS KEEPING DAYTIME HEATING LIMITED. TUESDAY CALIFORNIA UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
BY MIDWEEK. OVERALL LIMITED FIRE WEATHER THREATS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

95/96/96/95

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
400 PM PDT SAT AUG 9 2014

NVZ030-031-033>041-102300-
HUMBOLDT COUNTY-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY-
RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE-WHITE PINE COUNTY-
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-
SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY-
400 PM PDT SAT AUG 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA...NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA...NORTHEAST NEVADA...NORTHWEST
NEVADA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY HUMBOLDT COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SET-UP THE REGION
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND EVEN A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM ARIZONA AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE REGION. IN ADDITION THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO HELP AID ORGANIZED CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE
IS STILL LOW AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ON BOTH DAYS INHIBITING DAYTIME HEATING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT WEATHER PHENOMENA ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
326 PM PDT SAT AUG 9 2014

NVZ030-036-092315-
HUMBOLDT COUNTY NV-NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY
NV-
326 PM PDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LANDER AND SOUTHEASTERN
HUMBOLDT COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM PDT...

AT 324 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF VALMY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   VALMY...
   LONE TREE MINE...

&&

LAT...LON 4082 11740 4091 11705 4064 11707 4061 11721
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 155DEG 20KT 4069 11718

JR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
401 PM PDT SAT AUG 9 2014

NVZ030-092330-
HUMBOLDT COUNTY NV-
401 PM PDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL HUMBOLDT COUNTY UNTIL 430
PM PDT...

AT 352 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTH OF OROVADA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  THE JUNCTION OF STATE ROUTE 140 AND US HIGHWAY 95...
  RURAL CENTRAL HUMBOLDT COUNTY...

&&

LAT...LON 4150 11783 4138 11762 4133 11781 4135 11787
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 217DEG 7KT 4139 11780

86