Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
130 PM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. DRY WEATHER RETURNS EARLY THIS
WEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN NEVADA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY IS IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WOUND UP
CUTOFF LOW SPINNING OVER NEVADA. CYCLONE'S WARM FRONT HAS ROTATED
STRATIFORM RAIN BACK TO HUMBOLDT COUNTY, WITH A DESTABILIZING WARM
SECTOR AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SPC
MESOANALYSIS PLACES CAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG SOUTH OF I-80 AS OF
NOON, WITH LIFTED INDEX AS LOW AS -6 IN THE SE ZONES. INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL YIELD SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH ABOUT 7 PM, CAPAPLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY, POTENTIALLY FLOODING
RAINS. STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS TO 55 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL, BUT BULK SHEAR IS LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE, SO SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION OUTLINES THIS
NICELY. WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE OBTAINED ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL, WHICH IS SERVING TO MUTE
THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW. WEAKENING SOLAR
ANGLES OF EARLY AUTUMN SUN NOT HELPING EITHER.

MONDAY...CUTOFF LOW WEAKENS TO AN OPEN WAVE AND EJECTS RAPIDLY
OUT OF NEVADA, WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING DOMINATING BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. KEPT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF ELKO COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON, AS SUGGESTED BY MOST
MODELS. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MOST LOCALES, ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR LATE SEPTEMBER NORMALS. BEHIND THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE, SW WINDS WILL PICK UP NOTICEABLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON, AVERAGING 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY...WARMER AND DRIER, WITH LOW TO MID 80S COMMON IN THE
AFTERNOON. SW WINDS AGAIN BREEZY, 10-20 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.  BT

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT
WITH A SHORT RIDGE OVER THE CWA SHIFTING INTO UTAH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
THUS A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY WINDS DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
ZONES. BY THURSDAY THE MODELS BRING A DECENT TROF OVER THE AREA WITH
THE TROF AXIS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS SUGGESTS A WINDY DAY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ENTIRE CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
ZONES AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO DOWNSLOPE. EXCEPT
FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY THURSDAY...PRECIP
IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED UNTIL SOMETIME FRIDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE CWA. GFS IS THE FASTEST MODEL...BUT SLOWER
THAN 24 HOURS AGO...HAVING THE TROF AXIS ALONG THE CA-NV BORDER
WHILE THE EC AND GEM HAVING IT RIGHT ALONG THE WEST COAST. FOR
FRIDAY HAVE LOWERED POPS IN CENTRAL NV SINCE SOUTHWEST FLOW MAINLY
MEANS DRY CONDITIONS FOR THIS AREA. BY SATURDAY...BIG DIFFERENCES
IN MODELS WITH THE EC STRONGEST AND SLOWEST. THUS HAVE KEPT POPS
LOW AT THIS TIME FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  JH

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VIS ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AT TIMES WILL OVER THE SITES
THROUGH THIS EVENING.  JH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY
AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD SHOULD USE
CAUTION NEAR ANY BURN SCARS, WHERE RAINFALL RUNOFF WILL BE
EHHANCED. ENHANCED LAL OF 4 TO LOCALLY 5, THROUGH ABOUT 7 PM,
BEFORE INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION DWINDLE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

MONDAY...DRY WEATHER RETURNS TO ALL FWZ, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
MINIMAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ELKO COUNTY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SW WINDS INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH AFTER NOON.

TUESDAY...WARMER AND DRIER, WITH MIN RH FALLING BACK TO 15-20%.
AFTERNOON TEMPS BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WITH AGAIN SW WINDS OF
10-20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON,
AS A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES NEVADA.

CURRENT MODELS SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY, BUT MIN RH MAY REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO ALLEVIATE ANY
WIND/RH CONCERNS. EXPECT MUCH COLDER AIR, VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW NEXT WEEKEND.  BT

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN
NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND
NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...RUBY
MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

99/87/87/99

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
159 PM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

NVZ037-212145-
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY NV-
159 PM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LANDER COUNTY UNTIL 245
PM PDT...

AT 157 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 19 MILES NORTHEAST OF NEW PASS SUMMIT...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH. THIS STORM IS JUST WEST OF STATE HIGHWAY 305
SOUTH OF ANTELOPE VALLEY.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  STATE HIGHWAY 305 IN LANDER COUNTY...SOUTH OF ANTELOPE VALLEY...
  RURAL CENTRAL LANDER COUNTY...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3995 11710 3975 11701 3966 11734 3982 11738
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 043DEG 3KT 3976 11727

TURNER