High Wind Watch 1, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
157 PM PDT SAT MAR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE NICE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
SUNDAY...BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM MONDAY.
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP DUE TO A PASSING COLD
FRONT. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A QUIET AND MAINLY SUNNY
DAY WAS HAD BY ALL AS AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE WEATHER ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA. DURING THE OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO DIP DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN MANY LOCALES. THERE IS
SOME MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS FOR MAYBE SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT.

BY SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ATOP NORTHERN
NEVADA. 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 2-4C...TRANSLATING TO
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY
NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
THE RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST. WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
RATHER WARM...IN THE MID 30S.

ON MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH 700 MB
TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO -8 TO -13C BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED AND ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT WITH ABOUT AN
INCH OR SO IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE
VALLEYS OF NORTHERN ELKO AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. THE MAIN IMPACT
WILL BE DURING THE DAY WHEN STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED. A WIND
ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA.
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS LIKE NORTHERN ELKO...SOUTHEAST
ELKO...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ELKO WILL BE GOOD CANDIDATES. GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO SHOWING A STABLE LAYER DEVELOPING AROUND THE
650-600 MB LAYER...WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS A GOOD BET ON EAST
FACING SLOPES. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS ALONG THE LEE-SIDES OF THE
MOUNTAINS AS A RESULT. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING ANOMALIES OF +4
TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH NAEFS SHOWING
+3 TO 4 SD ACROSS SOUTHEAST ELKO.

THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF NORTHERN NEVADA WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. IT WILL BE A COLD AND BRISK DAY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
AND SKIES SHOULD REMAIN SUNNY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PATTERN THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AND THEN
DIFFERENCES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A
RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WITH GUSTY
WINDS...INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOW DRY CONDITIONS WITH
RIDGE OVER EASTERN PACIFIC...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON STRENGTH
OF RIDGE. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

86/90/90

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
221 PM PDT SAT MAR 15 2014

NVZ030-031-033>041-162130-
HUMBOLDT COUNTY-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY-
RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE-WHITE PINE COUNTY-
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-
SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY-
221 PM PDT SAT MAR 15 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA...NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA...NORTHEAST NEVADA...NORTHWEST
NEVADA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO NORTHERN NEVADA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS APPROACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

BY MONDAY...AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN NEVADA. WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED. ALONG WITH THE
WIND...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A DUSTING TO A
HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS WITH ABOUT AN INCH OR SO IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

COOLER WEATHER WILL BE PREVALENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND 50S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT WEATHER PHENOMENA ACCORDING TO
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE.