Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
336 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...
BUSINESS HAS PICKED UP SOME OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST 12 HOURS
AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION FROM THIS
MORNING HAS SPARKED SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY. THIS
BOUNDARY IS ALSO BEING INFLUENCED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
OVER ARKANSAS. THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA IS CONDUCIVE FOR WET MICROBURSTS. WITH THAT IN MIND THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS WELL
THEY HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE SAME
AREA FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING HOURS. LOOKING AT MODEL
SOUNDINGS THE ATMOSPHERE ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA SHOW IN INVERTED V SHAPE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH A DECENT
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE
THINKING OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THE OVERALL
WIND PROFILE ALSO SUGGEST THIS AS THE STORM MOTION VECTORS ARE
RELATIVELY SLOW AND SHEAR IS WEAK AND THAT WOULD ALLOW STORMS TO
BECOME STACKED MORE VERTICAL OVER THE UPDRAFTS AND COLLAPSE TO THE
SURFACE ALLOWING FOR THE WET MICROBURST. ALSO THERE IS A HAIL
THREAT AS SOME OF THE STORMS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED ONE INCH HAIL...HOWEVER THE MAIN THREAT FOR
OUR AREA IS MAINLY A WIND THREAT. LOOKING AT SOME OF THE MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS MOST SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE FLORIDA PARISHES SOMETIME AFTER 6PM. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA GOING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON THE SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION SEE THE MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION BELOW. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
GOING INTO THURSDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO
THE AREA AND THAT COULD SPARK A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
TOMORROW. HOWEVER SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS THAT
OCCUR TONIGHT COULD STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE SOME AND SUPPRESS
STORMS FOR THURSDAY. WITH THAT BEING SAID HAVE NOT REALLY ADJUSTED
POPS DRASTICALLY FOR TOMORROW...BUT IF THE TREND CONTINUES THE
NEXT PACKAGE POPS COULD BE MUCH DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON HOW THE
CONVECTION GOES TONIGHT. EITHER WAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND
THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. THERE SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN
THE HUMIDITY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT
DEWPOINTS COULD DROP DOWN INTO THE 60S AT SOME POINT OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GOING INTO NEXT
WEEK EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES
EACH AFTERNOON. 13/MH

&&

.MESOSCALE...
PLEASE REFER TO WS 387 CURRENTLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT FOR SW MS
AND A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL LA. EARLIER THINKING APPEARS TO BE
COMING INTO FRUITION WITH THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTING ALONG AND
DOWNSTREAM OF STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS TAKING ON
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES ARE -10 TO -11
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND -7 OR LOWER DOWNSTREAM. WE
UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO STAY CONSISTENT WITH SPC TO
INDICATE GUST POTENTIAL TO 75 MPH. OTHERWISE...ALL ELSE IN ON TRACK
FROM PREVIOUS MESOSCALE DISCUSSION. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
TAFS CURRENTLY REFLECT A 3-4 HOUR TEMPO PERIOD FOR TSTM POTENTIAL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE CONVECTION IMPACTS. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN MARINE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW.
GENERALLY EXPECT OFFSHORE FLOW OVER ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A
NOCTURNAL WIND SPEED INCREASE OVER THE SOUNDS AND EASTERN COASTAL
WATERS. COULD SEE WINDS TOUCH 15 KNOTS OVER THE EASTERN OPEN
WATERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES AT THIS
POINT. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BRING A MUCH LIGHTER WIND
REGIME WITH TS ARTHUR FORECAST TO BE SPEEDING NORTHEASTWARD OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST. 13/MH

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...HIGH IMPACT.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND MONITORING SEVERE STORM THREAT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  92  66  89 /  40  20  10  10
BTR  75  94  70  90 /  30  30  10  10
ASD  75  94  71  90 /  30  20  10  10
MSY  78  94  76  90 /  30  30  20  10
GPT  77  94  71  90 /  30  20  10  10
PQL  74  95  70  90 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
624 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-031400-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
624 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT FOR
WILKINSON...AMITE AND PIKE COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND FOR
POINTE COUPEE AND WEST FELICIANA PARISHES IN EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...PRIMARILY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WHEN A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME
HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE THE WATCH
AREA...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST DAYS
DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD...WITH THE LOWEST CHANCES OCCURRING ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
OF RAIN.

OTHERWISE...NO WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...POINTE
COUPEE AND WEST FELICIANA PARISHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHER ACTIVATIONS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

LAZ066-022230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
455 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING SOUTH AFFECTING LOWER TERREBONNE
PARISH...

AT 455 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTH OF HOUMA...OR ABOUT 2 MILES NORTH
OF DULAC...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
DULAC...LUMCON CENTER BUOY...TAMBOUR BAY BUOY AND COCODRIE.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SUB SEVERE HAIL UP TO NICKEL
SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND
BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR
BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAZ037-039-040-048-050-071-072-MSZ077-030015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
542 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014

...CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST AFFECTING PEARL
RIVER COUNTY...ST. HELENA PARISH...EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH...
LIVINGSTON PARISH...ST. TAMMANY PARISH...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA
PARISH...NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA PARISH...WASHINGTON PARISH...

AT 539 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BOGALUSA
TO 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF DENHAM SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THE CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND
AROUND...BOGALUSA...ENON...INDEPENDENCE...TICKFAW...SUN...ROBERT...
LIVINGSTON...HAMMOND...FOLSOM...BUSH AND CROSSROADS

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SUB
SEVERE HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE...AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH...WHICH
COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK
SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

MJH

LAZ034-035-MSZ068-030000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
606 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014

...CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST AFFECTING
WILKINSON COUNTY...POINTE COUPEE PARISH...WEST FELICIANA PARISH...

AT 602 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 7 MILES EAST OF SIMMESPORT...OR ABOUT
OVER LETTSWORTH...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND
AROUND...FORT ADAMS...BATCHELOR...MORGANZA...WOODVILLE...WAKEFIELD...
NEW ROADS...ST. FRANCISVILLE AND SPILLMAN

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING...SUB
SEVERE HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE...AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH...WHICH
COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK
SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

MJH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
615 PM CDT WED JUL 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAPLACE                 30.07N 90.47W
07/02/2014                   ST. JOHN THE BAPTI LA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            WIND DAMAGE OCCURRED TO THE ROOF AND WALL OF A BUSINESS.

&&

11

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