Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
407 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA WITH BOUNDARY EXTENDING TO NEAR ST.
LOUIS AND LITTLE ROCK INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA. CONVECTION EXTENDS
FROM NASHVILLE TO TUPELO TO JUST WEST OF ALEXANDRIA. SKIES HAVE
BEEN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WAS
CAPPED EARLIER IN DAY...BUT 18Z SOUNDING SHOWED CAP GONE AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH LIFTED OF -8...CAPE OF 4400. HELICITY HAS
WEAKENED...DOWN TO 132. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY MID 80S WITH DEW
POINTS UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ALL WEATHER ISSUES WILL BE IN SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. AIRMASS IS PRIMED FOR CONVECTION AT THIS
TIME...JUST WAITING FOR A TRIGGER. MESOSCALE MODELING STILL DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS OVER OUR AREA...KEEPING IT NORTH AND WEST. WE WILL
LOSE DIURNAL HEATING SHORTLY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THIS EVENING WOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AS BOUNDARY
MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. QUESTION WOULD BE SOUTHERN EXTENT...AND DO
NOT SEE IT GETTING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN INTERSTATE 12.

LARGER THREAT WILL BE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA AS SECOND JET STREAK
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH OF THE COAST
CONVECTION INITIATES. MOST INDICES VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND WILL NOT DETAIL ALL OF THEM. NEEDLESS TO SAY...LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES STILL POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

WILL CONTINUE WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT THREAT APPEARS TO BE
SOMEWHAT LOWER AT THIS TIME. RAIN AMOUNTS ONE TO TWO INCHES LIKELY
IN WATCH AREA...BUT IF TRAINING SETS UP...FLOOD POTENTIAL
INCREASES CONSIDERABLY.

SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END NEAR SUNSET TUESDAY...BUT WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY...RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EAST
INTO WEDNESDAY. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
WILL KEEP WITH THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS PRECIPITATION JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN NEAR NORMAL
BEYOND THAT. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL CAM A BIT AFTER SUNSET BUT WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED NEAR 10
KTS MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. WHILE OVERALL PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IS HIGH...PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN TIME IS
FAIRLY LOW AND THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE ONSET
TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS. THUS...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS
FOR NOW AND WILL HAVE TO ADD IN A LATER TAF PACKAGE OR THROUGH
AMENDMENTS IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE SHORTER TERM. 95/DM

&&

.MARINE...

WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO DEVOLVE INTO EXERCISE CAUTION
FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIKELY TO NEED ADVISORY AGAIN ON
TUESDAY...BUT WILL NOT CLOUD THE ISSUE WHILE CURRENT ADVISORY IN
EFFECT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY EASE ONCE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PASSES TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH QUIETER CONDITIONS FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
             MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TONIGHT/TUESDAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  84  57  76 /  50  50  20  10
BTR  71  87  59  79 /  40  30  20  10
ASD  71  84  62  80 /  80  70  30  20
MSY  72  84  65  79 /  70  60  30  20
GPT  73  81  67  81 /  80  70  50  30
PQL  71  81  65  80 /  80  70  50  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ST. TAMMANY...AND WASHINGTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...AND WALTHALL.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
845 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-291345-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
845 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH IS EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI FROM
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PEARL RIVER COUNTY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA UNTIL 3 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 AND 12 CORRIDORS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT ARE GENERALLY EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 AND 12
CORRIDOR.

STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THAT ARE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM PORT FOURCHON TO RED RIVER LANDING. THE AREA OF
GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS THE MS GULF COASTAL COUNTIES...AS
WELL AS PEARL RIVER AND WALTHALL COUNTIES..AND WASHINGTON PARISH.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE
AND ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. PLEASE
RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER OR HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

LAZ039-MSZ070-071-290430-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1036 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

...CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST AFFECTING
WALTHALL COUNTY...PIKE COUNTY...WASHINGTON PARISH...

AT 1024 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 14 MILES NORTH OF FRANKLINTON...OR
ABOUT 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TYLERTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND
AROUND...TYLERTOWN AND DEXTER

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...PEA TO
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN
TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A
SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAZ039-040-MSZ071-077-290545-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1143 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST AFFECTING WALTHALL
COUNTY...PEARL RIVER COUNTY...ST. TAMMANY PARISH...WASHINGTON
PARISH...

AT 1140 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES
SOUTH OF COLUMBIA TO FRANKLINTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
ANGIE...ENON...VARNADO...BOGALUSA...CROSSROADS...SUN AND POPLARVILLE

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING...SUB
SEVERE HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE...AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH...WHICH
COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK
SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING
ROADWAYS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT TUESDAY FOR
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

MJH